Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shareholders have approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a>'s acquisition by Paine Schwartz Partners and the stock is expected to stop trading after the close on 8 February.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a> will be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 8 February.</li>
<li>There will be positioning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a> but we do not expect it to be excessively large and there could be some outperformance over the next week.</li>
</ul>


Shareholders have approved Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)'s acquisition by Paine Schwartz Partners and the stock is expected to stop trading after the close on 8 February.

Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) will be replaced by Strike Energy (STX AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 8 February.
There will be positioning in Strike Energy (STX AU) but we do not expect it to be excessively large and there could be some outperformance over the next week.


S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Strike Energy (STX) To Replace Costa Group (CGC)

<ul>
<li>The Scheme Meeting for PSP's acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a> will be held on 30 January and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group</a> could stop trading after the close on 8 February.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siteminder-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34688:1" rel="noopener">SiteMinder (SDR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/audinate-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26757:1" rel="noopener">Audinate (AD8 AU)</a> are potential inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at an ad hoc rebalance.</li>
<li>For the stocks that are not added at the ad hoc rebalance, there is a very high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> inclusion at the March rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The Scheme Meeting for PSP's acquisition of Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) will be held on 30 January and Costa Group could stop trading after the close on 8 February.

Strike Energy (STX AU), SiteMinder (SDR AU) and Audinate (AD8 AU) are potential inclusions to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at an ad hoc rebalance.
For the stocks that are not added at the ad hoc rebalance, there is a very high probability of S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) inclusion at the March rebalance.


Costa Group (CGC AU): Potential ASX200 Replacements

<ul>
<li>With 2 trading days left in the review period, there could be 30 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have hugely outperformed the forecast deletes. Borrow recall on the deletes and increased borrow availability on the adds could result in underperformance following announcement of the changes.</li>
</ul>


With 2 trading days left in the review period, there could be 30 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and S&amp;P/ASX 300.
The forecast adds have hugely outperformed the forecast deletes. Borrow recall on the deletes and increased borrow availability on the adds could result in underperformance following announcement of the changes.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We continue to expect one change for ASX 100 and two changes for ASX 200.</li>
<li>Separately, there could be 14 ADDs and 6 DELs for ASX 300.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
We continue to expect one change for ASX 100 and two changes for ASX 200.
Separately, there could be 14 ADDs and 6 DELs for ASX 300.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24: Trade Delivers Strong Return Again; 3 Days Remaining for Base Date

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see one ASX 100 change and two ASX 200 changes but there are a couple of names lurking just outside the border which have to be monitored carefully.</li>
<li>For ASX 300, we see 13 ADDs and 6 DELs. Many of these expected ADDs and DELs could have more than 10 days of volume to trade.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
We see one ASX 100 change and two ASX 200 changes but there are a couple of names lurking just outside the border which have to be monitored carefully.
For ASX 300, we see 13 ADDs and 6 DELs. Many of these expected ADDs and DELs could have more than 10 days of volume to trade.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

Australia

Strike Energy Limited is an oil and gas exploration company whose exploration activities are located in the Carnarvon Basin in Western Australia and the Cooper Basin in South Australia.

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Strike Energy (STX AU)

S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Strike Energy (STX) To Replace Costa Group (CGC)

Strike Energy will replace Costa Group in the ASX200 at the close on 8 Feb. The inclusion was expected and there is positioning in the stock. But...

Brian Freitas

Costa Group (CGC AU): Potential ASX200 Replacements

The PSP/Costa Group Scheme Meeting takes place on 30 Jan and CGC could stop trading on 8 Feb. There will be an ad hoc rebalance for the ASX200 and...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

There could be 30 changes for the ASX indices in September with a lot to trade for passive trackers. The adds have outperformed the deletes and...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24: Trade Delivers Strong Return Again; 3 Days Remaining for Base Date

The LONG ASX 200 & 300 Expected ADDs - SHORT ASX 200 & 300 Expected DELs trade has delivered a strong return of 11% since 23rd July (after...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

If the new shares issued by Westgold (WGX AU) for its acquisition of Karora (KRR CN) is added to its initial share count, Westgold will become the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Strike Energy (STX) To Replace Costa Group (CGC)

Strike Energy will replace Costa Group in the ASX200 at the close on 8 Feb. The inclusion was expected and there is positioning in the stock. But...

Brian Freitas

Costa Group (CGC AU): Potential ASX200 Replacements

The PSP/Costa Group Scheme Meeting takes place on 30 Jan and CGC could stop trading on 8 Feb. There will be an ad hoc rebalance for the ASX200 and...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

There could be 30 changes for the ASX indices in September with a lot to trade for passive trackers. The adds have outperformed the deletes and...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24: Trade Delivers Strong Return Again; 3 Days Remaining for Base Date

The LONG ASX 200 & 300 Expected ADDs - SHORT ASX 200 & 300 Expected DELs trade has delivered a strong return of 11% since 23rd July (after...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

If the new shares issued by Westgold (WGX AU) for its acquisition of Karora (KRR CN) is added to its initial share count, Westgold will become the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes