Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

This report highlights actionable themes across the EM universe, including: bullish inflections in the Russian and Thai markets, and a pullback opportunity in India's SENSEX.  We also highlight actionable setups in MSCI EM Energy and Materials sectors and within Taiwanese Financials/Banks.  Finally we uncover a number of attractive bottoms-up opportunities, sorted by sector and market-cap.

This report highlights actionable themes across the EM universe, including: bullish inflections in the Russian and Thai markets, and a pullback opportunity in India's SENSEX.  We also highlight actionable setups in MSCI EM Energy and Materials sectors and within Taiwanese Financials/Banks.  Finally we uncover a number of attractive bottoms-up opportunities, sorted by sector and market-cap.

EM Strategy: Russia and Thailand Bullishly Inflecting; Pullback Opportunity in India

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

SYNTHESIS<h2>1.    Bullish flattening expected on the THB swap curve:</h2><ul>
<li>THB swaps should be received by 73bps to 94bps.</li>
<li>The 1-5y THB swap curve is expected to flatten by 26bps to 41bps.</li>
</ul><h2>2.    THB appreciation and outperformance expected:</h2><ul>
<li>USDTHB bearish trend still valid.</li>
<li>THB outperformance against HKD and JPY. More potential against HKD, a higher carry against JPY.</li>
</ul><h2>3.    Bullish Thailand equities :</h2><ul><li>SET index expected to rise by 20/22%.</li></ul> RECOMMENDATIONTIME HORIZON: 6-9 months                      CONVICTION:  excellent <ul>
<li> Receiver TBSWNI5 below 2.30/2.49% towards 1.5850/1.37%.</li>
<li>Short USDTHB below 33.00/33.60.</li>
<li>Long THBHKD and THBJPY.</li>
</ul>

SYNTHESIS1.    Bullish flattening expected on the THB swap curve:
THB swaps should be received by 73bps to 94bps.
The 1-5y THB swap curve is expected to flatten by 26bps to 41bps.
2.    THB appreciation and outperformance expected:
USDTHB bearish trend still valid.
THB outperformance against HKD and JPY. More potential against HKD, a higher carry against JPY.
3.    Bullish Thailand equities :SET index expected to rise by 20/22%. RECOMMENDATIONTIME HORIZON: 6-9 months                      CONVICTION:  excellent 
 Receiver TBSWNI5 below 2.30/2.49% towards 1.5850/1.37%.
Short USDTHB below 33.00/33.60.
Long THBHKD and THBJPY.


Thailand: Receiver Swaps, Appreciation of the THB

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Our EM FX cascade call is seeing increased USD bull momentum in Asia as weaker currencies buckle and bleed into the SGD and KRW.  Mounting equity selling pressure in Asia and we have yet to break TRY and RUB triangle patterns for a bigger USD push and FX buckle.Price action in China/Hong Kong implies we reach for new lows into our base case cycle trough due in September. Impulsive bear turns noted in Korea, Singapore and Indonesia. India break of trend support.EEM - Reaching for that 40-41 target zone which must be linked with a chart peak in EM FX while holding NDX 7,500 for any sign of a low. If we break NDX 7,500 then we press lower across the board and see DM's close the margin with EM's. Watch NDX 7,500, representing a key pivot level for tech globally.This webcast covers important break points and synergy as we move into a more volatile September.

Our EM FX cascade call is seeing increased USD bull momentum in Asia as weaker currencies buckle and bleed into the SGD and KRW.  Mounting equity selling pressure in Asia and we have yet to break TRY and RUB triangle patterns for a bigger USD push and FX buckle.Price action in China/Hong Kong implies we reach for new lows into our base case cycle trough due in September. Impulsive bear turns noted in Korea, Singapore and Indonesia. India break of trend support.EEM - Reaching for that 40-41 target zone which must be linked with a chart peak in EM FX while holding NDX 7,500 for any sign of a low. If we break NDX 7,500 then we press lower across the board and see DM's close the margin with EM's. Watch NDX 7,500, representing a key pivot level for tech globally.This webcast covers important break points and synergy as we move into a more volatile September.

Further Signs of Contagion Seeping into Asia

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Technical Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/055/660/original/CP%20header.jpg?1529578972" data-smartkarma-image-id="55660"></figure>This webcast runs through our short positioning in Asia and where we are adding short exposure.Asian bear pressure has notched higher amid the call for broader USD strength and trade friction. Last week, we noted increased odds of selling pressure due to redemptions/outflows which will have a lingering impact.S&amp;P 2,800 fade hit our 2,745 short to long turn target. The rise toward 2,800 resistance is an opportunity to place a fresh short hedge on our long tech positioning. We placed a short at…

This webcast runs through our short positioning in Asia and where we are adding short exposure.Asian bear pressure has notched higher amid the call for broader USD strength and trade friction. Last week, we noted increased odds of selling pressure due to redemptions/outflows which will have a lingering impact.S&amp;P 2,800 fade hit our 2,745 short to long turn target. The rise toward 2,800 resistance is an opportunity to place a fresh short hedge on our long tech positioning. We placed a short at…

FTSE China A50 Index / Technical Analysis

<div style="text-align: left;">Asia bid support is coming through with signs of resilience. This tactical insight outlines S&amp;P pivot levels and the markets that are showing a firmer chart and bid support bias in Asia as well as the weaker market postures where we want to reduce risk on tactical strength. February is a seasonally weak month with US equities in a fragile state barring a push back above S&amp;P 2,810. We placed short protection at S&amp;P 2,844 and 2,807 on the back of warning signals of a fallout and followed with…</div>

Asia bid support is coming through with signs of resilience. This tactical insight outlines S&amp;P pivot levels and the markets that are showing a firmer chart and bid support bias in Asia as well as the weaker market postures where we want to reduce risk on tactical strength. February is a seasonally weak month with US equities in a fragile state barring a push back above S&amp;P 2,810. We placed short protection at S&amp;P 2,844 and 2,807 on the back of warning signals of a fallout and followed with…

Thailand

The Bangkok SET Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of April 30, 1975. 

Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX)

EM Strategy: Russia and Thailand Bullishly Inflecting; Pullback Opportunity in India

This report highlights actionable themes across the EM universe, including: bullish inflections in the Russian and Thai markets, and a pullback...

Vermilion Research

Thailand: Receiver Swaps, Appreciation of the THB

SYNTHESIS1. Bullish flattening expected on the THB swap curve: THB swaps should be received by 73bps to 94bps. The 1-5y THB swap curve is...

Guillaume Coutant

Further Signs of Contagion Seeping into Asia

Our EM FX cascade call is seeing increased USD bull momentum in Asia as weaker currencies buckle and bleed into the SGD and KRW. Mounting equity...

Thomas Schroeder

Tactical Short Targets in Asia

This webcast runs through our short positioning in Asia and where we are adding short exposure.Asian bear pressure has notched higher amid the call...

Thomas Schroeder

Asia Chart Levels and Where to Add Risk

Asia bid support is coming through with signs of resilience. This tactical insight outlines S&P pivot levels and the markets that are showing a...

Thomas Schroeder