Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Operating costs moved to USD8.9bn in 4Q22 from USD8.0bn in 3Q22</li>
<li>Continued high growth in QoQ credit costs up 33% QoQ in 4Q22</li>
<li>Net fee income seems to be shrinking about USD100m quarterly</li>
</ul>


Operating costs moved to USD8.9bn in 4Q22 from USD8.0bn in 3Q22
Continued high growth in QoQ credit costs up 33% QoQ in 4Q22
Net fee income seems to be shrinking about USD100m quarterly


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank</a>, the online banking arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>, aims to raise around US$500m (estimated) in its Japan listing in April 2023. </li>
<li>RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Mar 2023, it had 13.39m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.6tn. </li>
<li>In this note we take an early look at the IPO and talk about the not-so-positive aspects of its past performance.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Bank, the online banking arm of Rakuten Inc (4755 JP), aims to raise around US$500m (estimated) in its Japan listing in April 2023. 
RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Mar 2023, it had 13.39m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.6tn. 
In this note we take an early look at the IPO and talk about the not-so-positive aspects of its past performance.


Rakuten Bank IPO Early Look - The Negatives - Is Already Slowing Down

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823 HK)</a> (LREIT) aims to undertake a 1 for 5 rights issue at a subscription price of HK$44.20/unit, to raise around US$2.4bn.</li>
<li>After announcing a S$2.2bn acquisition in late Dec 2022, the company explicitly mentioned that it didn’t need to raise any new capital. Thus, the rights issue marks an abrupt turnaround.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the right issue, its previous acquisition and the overall implications.</li>
</ul>



Link REIT (823 HK) (LREIT) aims to undertake a 1 for 5 rights issue at a subscription price of HK$44.20/unit, to raise around US$2.4bn.
After announcing a S$2.2bn acquisition in late Dec 2022, the company explicitly mentioned that it didn’t need to raise any new capital. Thus, the rights issue marks an abrupt turnaround.
In this note, we talk about the right issue, its previous acquisition and the overall implications.


Link REIT US$2.4bn Rights Issue - Mistimed but Yield at the Rights Price Might Be the Saving Grace

Financial sector veteran, KT Capital Group

Fern Wang

Financial sector veteran

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>FAB's bid will be the fastest and easiest way to increase its global and product reach.</li>
<li>The deal is likely to face plenty of scrutiny due to StandChart’s complexity.</li>
<li>With ample capital, liquidity and on path for profit recovery, StandChart is not in need of a deal.</li>
</ul>


FAB's bid will be the fastest and easiest way to increase its global and product reach.
The deal is likely to face plenty of scrutiny due to StandChart’s complexity.
With ample capital, liquidity and on path for profit recovery, StandChart is not in need of a deal.


Standard Chartered: FAB’s StanChart Bid Could Draw Plenty of Regulatory Scrutiny

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MSCI revised the Adani Group weighting after reviewing FF. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a>affected. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green (ADANIGR IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:247:1" rel="noopener">Adani Power (ADANI IN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-ports-special-economic-zone-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:246:1" rel="noopener">Adani Ports (ADSEZ IN)</a> not affected. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a> is dirt cheap at 0.3x P/B. It is a China re-opening play. Plus the company is buying back shares. </li>
<li>The Nikkei didn't write an article on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> when everyone else did. They waited another day, with what appears to be a zinger on price at "about ¥2trln". </li>
</ul>


The MSCI revised the Adani Group weighting after reviewing FF. Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)affected. Adani Green (ADANIGR IN), Adani Power (ADANI IN), and Adani Ports (ADSEZ IN) not affected. 

Hongkong Land (HKL SP) is dirt cheap at 0.3x P/B. It is a China re-opening play. Plus the company is buying back shares. 
The Nikkei didn't write an article on Toshiba (6502 JP) when everyone else did. They waited another day, with what appears to be a zinger on price at "about ¥2trln". 


Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Hongkong Land, Toshiba, Haw Par, Renault/Nissan

Hong Kong

Standard Chartered plc is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.  The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (2888 HK)

HSBC - Dangling The Dividend

High quarterly growth in operating costs, worsening net fee income yet again, and sharply higher credit costs, helped to offset most of the net...

Daniel Tabbush

Rakuten Bank IPO Early Look - The Negatives - Is Already Slowing Down

Rakuten Bank, the online banking arm of Rakuten Inc (4755 JP), aims to raise around US$500m in its Japan listing in April 2023. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

Link REIT US$2.4bn Rights Issue - Mistimed but Yield at the Rights Price Might Be the Saving Grace

Link REIT (823 HK) (LREIT) aims to undertake a 1 for 5 rights issue at a subscription price of HK$44.20/unit, to raise around US$2.4bn. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Standard Chartered: FAB’s StanChart Bid Could Draw Plenty of Regulatory Scrutiny

Unlike some other European peers, Standard Chartered has strong capital, liquidity, and on path for profit recovery, it does not seem to need a...

Fern Wang

Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Hongkong Land, Toshiba, Haw Par, Renault/Nissan

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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