Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<div><p>The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) will announce the results of the semi-annual review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> in mid-June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 30 June.</p></div><div>
<p>The review period for market cap calculations runs from 1 March to 31 May, while the liquidity calculations run from 1 June 2020 to 31 May 2021.</p>
<p>We see three potential changes at the current time with an estimated one-way turnover for the rebalance at 2.19%.</p>
<p>Potential inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-gloves-thailand-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29141:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-agro-industry-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2759:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Agro Industry (STA TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC TB)</a>.</p>
<p>Potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/com7-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27411:1" rel="noopener">Com7 PCL (COM7 TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-paint-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24235:1" rel="noopener">TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB)</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> will not completed six months of trading history by the end of the review period and will not be eligible for inclusion at the June rebalance.</p>
<p>There is a possibility that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> methodology is changed to make it a free float weighted market cap index from a full market cap index. That will see a lot of passive flow on some stocks that have a low free float.</p>
</div>

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) will announce the results of the semi-annual review of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in mid-June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 30 June.
The review period for market cap calculations runs from 1 March to 31 May, while the liquidity calculations run from 1 June 2020 to 31 May 2021.
We see three potential changes at the current time with an estimated one-way turnover for the rebalance at 2.19%.
Potential inclusions are Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB), Sri Trang Agro Industry (STA TB) and IRPC PCL (IRPC TB).
Potential deletions are VGI PCL (VGI TB), Com7 PCL (COM7 TB) and TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB).
Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) will not completed six months of trading history by the end of the review period and will not be eligible for inclusion at the June rebalance.
There is a possibility that the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) methodology is changed to make it a free float weighted market cap index from a full market cap index. That will see a lot of passive flow on some stocks that have a low free float.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potentially Three Changes & Move to Free Float Weighting

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

PTT Oil & Retail Business  / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-oil-and-retail" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28939:1" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail (OR TB)</a> raised about US$1.6bn at THB18 per share, the top-end of the IPO price range.</p>
<div>
<p>PTTOR is a market leader in the oil business as well as F&amp;B business. It has leveraged its service station network to build out its brand, Amazon Cafe, which has a strong presence even beyond service stations. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>We have previously covered the IPO in:</p>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ptt-oil-and-retail-ipo-f-b-business-is-the-profit-driver" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39105" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail IPO - F&amp;B Business Is the Profit Driver</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ptt-oil-and-retail-ipo-updated-financials-and-competitive-landscape" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47002" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail IPO - Updated Financials and Competitive Landscape</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ptt-oil-and-retail-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47003" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail IPO - Thoughts on Valuation</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ptt-oil-and-retail-ipo-attractive-valuation-with-favorable-deal-dynamics-index-inclusion" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47073" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail IPO - Attractive Valuation with Favorable Deal Dynamics (Index Inclusion)</a> </li>
</ul>
<p>In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and provide implied valuations at different share price levels.</p>
</div>

PTT Oil and Retail (OR TB) raised about US$1.6bn at THB18 per share, the top-end of the IPO price range.

PTTOR is a market leader in the oil business as well as F&amp;B business. It has leveraged its service station network to build out its brand, Amazon Cafe, which has a strong presence even beyond service stations. 


We have previously covered the IPO in:


PTT Oil and Retail IPO - F&amp;B Business Is the Profit Driver 

PTT Oil and Retail IPO - Updated Financials and Competitive Landscape 

PTT Oil and Retail IPO - Thoughts on Valuation 

PTT Oil and Retail IPO - Attractive Valuation with Favorable Deal Dynamics (Index Inclusion) 

In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and provide implied valuations at different share price levels.


PTT Oil and Retail IPO Trading - Still Reasonably Priced at the Top-End

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Kerry Express Thailand / Equity Capital Markets

<p>Kerry Express Thailand aims to raise around up to US$277m in its Thailand IPO. The company is a subsidiary of Hong Kong listed Kerry Logistics and also counts VGI as a major shareholder.</p><p>Kerry Express Thailand is Thailand's largest private express delivery company. As of FY19, it had over 16,000 service locations in all provinces in Thailand, with its next-day delivery service covering 99.9% of Thai population. It also offers same-day delivery service within the Bangkok Metropolitan, Greater Bangkok areas and certain upcountry areas. It delivers more than 1.1m parcels everyday.</p><p>Revenue tripled over FY17-19, while gross profit was up 2.22x, EBITDA was up 2.36x, and PATMI was up 10.2x. Although, 9M20 operations weren’t anything to write home about with revenue merely being flat YoY.</p><p>Apart from being a well known brand in Thailand, it presents one of the only ways to get exposure to the e-commerce market. If that wasn’t enough, its cornerstone book is one of the best that I’ve seen, of late.</p>

Kerry Express Thailand aims to raise around up to US$277m in its Thailand IPO. The company is a subsidiary of Hong Kong listed Kerry Logistics and also counts VGI as a major shareholder.Kerry Express Thailand is Thailand's largest private express delivery company. As of FY19, it had over 16,000 service locations in all provinces in Thailand, with its next-day delivery service covering 99.9% of Thai population. It also offers same-day delivery service within the Bangkok Metropolitan, Greater Bangkok areas and certain upcountry areas. It delivers more than 1.1m parcels everyday.Revenue tripled over FY17-19, while gross profit was up 2.22x, EBITDA was up 2.36x, and PATMI was up 10.2x. Although, 9M20 operations weren’t anything to write home about with revenue merely being flat YoY.Apart from being a well known brand in Thailand, it presents one of the only ways to get exposure to the e-commerce market. If that wasn’t enough, its cornerstone book is one of the best that I’ve seen, of late.

Kerry Express Thailand IPO - Time for Delivery

<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1" rel="noopener">Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (Klci) (FBMKLCI INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the Bursa Malaysia. The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be announced on 3 December and will be effective after the close of trading on 18 December.</p><p>The review uses today's closing price to determine the stocks to be included into and excluded from the index. We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/supermax-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12883:1" rel="noopener">Supermax Corp (SUCB MK)</a> being included in the index, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/klccp-stapled-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7148:1" rel="noopener">KLCCP Stapled (KLCCSS MK)</a>. Glove makers should have a weighting of 14.23% in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1" rel="noopener">Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX)</a> post the change.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kossan-rubber-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20482:1" rel="noopener">Kossan Rubber Industries (KRI MK)</a> has dropped out of the list of potential inclusions following the momentum unwind, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14210:1" rel="noopener">Genting Bhd (GENT MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3141:1" rel="noopener">Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)</a> have rallied to avoid index deletion.</p><p>We estimate passive funds will need to buy 0.35 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/supermax-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12883:1" rel="noopener">Supermax Corp (SUCB MK)</a>, while passive selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/klccp-stapled-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7148:1" rel="noopener">KLCCP Stapled (KLCCSS MK)</a> will be around 13 days of ADV.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/klccp-stapled-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7148:1" rel="noopener">KLCCP Stapled (KLCCSS MK)</a> was an inclusion at the previous review in June, and its short stay in the index looks like coming to an end.</p>

The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (Klci) (FBMKLCI INDEX) is the flagship index of the Bursa Malaysia. The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be announced on 3 December and will be effective after the close of trading on 18 December.The review uses today's closing price to determine the stocks to be included into and excluded from the index. We see Supermax Corp (SUCB MK) being included in the index, replacing KLCCP Stapled (KLCCSS MK). Glove makers should have a weighting of 14.23% in the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX) post the change.Kossan Rubber Industries (KRI MK) has dropped out of the list of potential inclusions following the momentum unwind, while Genting Bhd (GENT MK) and Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) have rallied to avoid index deletion.We estimate passive funds will need to buy 0.35 days of ADV on Supermax Corp (SUCB MK), while passive selling on KLCCP Stapled (KLCCSS MK) will be around 13 days of ADV.KLCCP Stapled (KLCCSS MK) was an inclusion at the previous review in June, and its short stay in the index looks like coming to an end.

KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: Glovemaker to Take a Real Estate Spot

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-packaging-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28684:1" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)</a> raise around US$1.2bn in its Thailand IPO. It is a part of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-cement-pcl-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2589:1" rel="noopener">Siam Cement (SCC TB)</a> group.</p></div><div><p>SCGP is a packaging solutions provider in ASEAN offering fiber-based packaging, performance and polymer packaging, food service products, design, printing and other solutions. SCGP is the largest packaging paper and corrugated containers producer in ASEAN, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan. </p></div><div>I have covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier notes:</div><div><ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-pre-ipo-shift-to-packaging-has-been-aiding-margins-but-acquisition-drove-up-leverage" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging Pre-IPO - Shift to packaging has been aiding margins but acquisitions have driven up leverage</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-ipo-unexciting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging IPO - Unexciting</a></li>
</ul></div><p>In this note, I'll talk about the deal updates and provide implied valuations at different share price levels.</p>

SCG Packaging (SCGP TB) raise around US$1.2bn in its Thailand IPO. It is a part of the Siam Cement (SCC TB) group.SCGP is a packaging solutions provider in ASEAN offering fiber-based packaging, performance and polymer packaging, food service products, design, printing and other solutions. SCGP is the largest packaging paper and corrugated containers producer in ASEAN, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan. I have covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier notes:
SCG Packaging Pre-IPO - Shift to packaging has been aiding margins but acquisitions have driven up leverage
SCG Packaging IPO - Unexciting
In this note, I'll talk about the deal updates and provide implied valuations at different share price levels.

SCG Packaging IPO Trading - Placed with Domestics

Thailand

Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited manufactures rubber products. The Company offers janitorial items such as hand gloves. Sri Trang Gloves Thailand serves customers in Thailand.

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Sri Trang Gloves Thailand (STGT TB)

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potentially Three Changes & Move to Free Float Weighting

There could be 3 changes to the SET50 at the June review with STGT, STA & IRPC joining the index at the expense of VGI, TOA & COM7. The methodology...

Brian Freitas

PTT Oil and Retail IPO Trading - Still Reasonably Priced at the Top-End

PTTOR raised about US$1.6bn at THB18 per share. In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and provide implied valuations at different share...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Kerry Express Thailand IPO - Time for Delivery

Kerry Express Thailand aims to raise around up to US$277m in its Thailand IPO. The company is a subsidiary of Hong Kong listed Kerry Logistics and...

Sumeet Singh

KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: Glovemaker to Take a Real Estate Spot

Supermax is expected to join the KLCI after its eye-popping rally this year, taking the place of KLCC. Glove makers will have a weight of over 14%...

Brian Freitas

SCG Packaging IPO Trading - Placed with Domestics

SCG Packaging (SCGP TB) raised around US$1.2bn in its Thailand IPO. Given its lack of growth in the past, we remain less than excited, to put it...

Sumeet Singh

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