Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

-From an economic standpoint, the longer Trump's domestic agenda is stalled the better. The agenda involves massive increases in defense spending, huge tax cuts skewed towards the wealthy and corporates (possibly with a border tax adjustment that brings on protectionist retaliation globally), all made possible by implausible growth projections (about a percentage point higher annually than CBO projections for ten years!). For now, the Trump agenda is stalled, because the Russia investigation is…

-From an economic standpoint, the longer Trump's domestic agenda is stalled the better. The agenda involves massive increases in defense spending, huge tax cuts skewed towards the wealthy and corporates (possibly with a border tax adjustment that brings on protectionist retaliation globally), all made possible by implausible growth projections (about a percentage point higher annually than CBO projections for ten years!). For now, the Trump agenda is stalled, because the Russia investigation is…

After His Catastrophic Foreign Policy Debut, Trump's Administration Faces Paralysis at Home

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

In last week’s US macro insight (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/us-equity-market-looking-increasingly-expensive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:10800">US Equity Market Looking Increasingly Expensive</a>) we argued that stocks looked 80% overvalued by historic standards, and exhibited much higher than average year to date returns as well. Both assessments hold true today.Are stocks predicting bonanza? A similar picture shows in the credit market with low compensation for default risk in the form of credit spreads, and upward sloping credit curves, with risk premium increasing with the bonds' maturity as a sign of…

In last week’s US macro insight (US Equity Market Looking Increasingly Expensive) we argued that stocks looked 80% overvalued by historic standards, and exhibited much higher than average year to date returns as well. Both assessments hold true today.Are stocks predicting bonanza? A similar picture shows in the credit market with low compensation for default risk in the form of credit spreads, and upward sloping credit curves, with risk premium increasing with the bonds' maturity as a sign of…

US Macro - Bonds Pointing Down, Equities Pointing Up, Which Is Right?

Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

Earlier this month, RDQ Economics attended the Atlanta Fed’s Annual Financial Markets Conference.  This year’s theme was Managing Global Financial Risks: Shifting Sands and Shock Waves.  The participants were a mix of current and former central bankers, academics, independent researchers, and asset managers.  The overall assessment of conference participants was that there is lots of uncertainty—both geopolitical (North Korea at top of that list) and policy-related (much of that emanating from…

Earlier this month, RDQ Economics attended the Atlanta Fed’s Annual Financial Markets Conference.  This year’s theme was Managing Global Financial Risks: Shifting Sands and Shock Waves.  The participants were a mix of current and former central bankers, academics, independent researchers, and asset managers.  The overall assessment of conference participants was that there is lots of uncertainty—both geopolitical (North Korea at top of that list) and policy-related (much of that emanating from…

If you were simply to take the overall US stock market behaviour since the start of the year, you would have reason for mild contentment. The market is up 6~7% in 15 weeks - the sort of performance that delivers nice bonuses to the fund management industry but doesn't generate sleepless nights worrying that it is about to turn sour.However, such performance is well in excess of the 6% annual total real rate of return generated on average by equities, given that current dividend yields and…

If you were simply to take the overall US stock market behaviour since the start of the year, you would have reason for mild contentment. The market is up 6~7% in 15 weeks - the sort of performance that delivers nice bonuses to the fund management industry but doesn't generate sleepless nights worrying that it is about to turn sour.However, such performance is well in excess of the 6% annual total real rate of return generated on average by equities, given that current dividend yields and…

US Equity Market Looking Increasingly Expensive

Amareos

Ryan Shea

<h2>Summary</h2>Global equity markets are expensive, implied volatility is low and falling, and central banks are either turning off, or threatening to turn off, the liquidity tap. This combination has certainly attracted the attention of the bears, with many speculating that the asset price bubble they perceived as having been inflated by years of accommodative policy is about to burst. In other words, we are on the cusp of a major market correction – an Ursa Major (think about it!) event. We disagree.…

SummaryGlobal equity markets are expensive, implied volatility is low and falling, and central banks are either turning off, or threatening to turn off, the liquidity tap. This combination has certainly attracted the attention of the bears, with many speculating that the asset price bubble they perceived as having been inflated by years of accommodative policy is about to burst. In other words, we are on the cusp of a major market correction – an Ursa Major (think about it!) event. We disagree.…

The Market Sentimentalist - Are The Stars Aligned?

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

After His Catastrophic Foreign Policy Debut, Trump's Administration Faces Paralysis at Home

-From an economic standpoint, the longer Trump's domestic agenda is stalled the better. The agenda involves massive increases in defense spending,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Macro - Bonds Pointing Down, Equities Pointing Up, Which Is Right?

In last week’s US macro insight (US Equity Market Looking Increasingly Expensive) we argued that stocks looked 80% overvalued by historic...

Pelham Smithers Associates

The Calm In U.S. Stocks Is Tested

Earlier this month, RDQ Economics attended the Atlanta Fed’s Annual Financial Markets Conference. This year’s theme was Managing Global Financial...

RDQ Economics

US Equity Market Looking Increasingly Expensive

If you were simply to take the overall US stock market behaviour since the start of the year, you would have reason for mild contentment. The...

Pelham Smithers Associates

The Market Sentimentalist - Are The Stars Aligned?

SummaryGlobal equity markets are expensive, implied volatility is low and falling, and central banks are either turning off, or threatening to turn...

Amareos

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