Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

<p>In this insight we discuss the latest economy-wide profits data for the U.S., updated today by the Commerce Department.  The data on profits from the National Income and Product Accounts paint a somewhat different picture of trends than S&amp;P reported profits.  From a peak of 15.5% in the third quarter of 2014, aggregate core profit margins declined to 12.6% as of the first quarter of 2017.  Since we see no evidence of a better price-wage-productivity balance that will stabilize profit margins, economy-wide profit trends raise concerns about the outlook for equity prices.</p>

In this insight we discuss the latest economy-wide profits data for the U.S., updated today by the Commerce Department.  The data on profits from the National Income and Product Accounts paint a somewhat different picture of trends than S&amp;P reported profits.  From a peak of 15.5% in the third quarter of 2014, aggregate core profit margins declined to 12.6% as of the first quarter of 2017.  Since we see no evidence of a better price-wage-productivity balance that will stabilize profit margins, economy-wide profit trends raise concerns about the outlook for equity prices.

U.S. Core Domestic Profit Trends Remain Troubling

SPDR S&P 500

U.S. Core Domestic Profit Trends Remain Troubling