Why a Shrinking Fed Balance Sheet Will Inevitably Lead to Recession in 2018
In the past 60 years, an inverted yield curve has predicted a recession within 15 months on 6 of the previous 7 occasions it has occurred (on the...
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What You Don't See at Market Bottoms: Retail Stampede Edition
It is said that while bottoms are events, tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in; therefore, they can be more easily...
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Modeling Trump's Trade Wars
As the market looks ahead in 2018, the global economy appears to be undergoing a synchronized upturn. Our base-case scenario still calls for an...
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Should You Be Worried About an Elevated Shiller P/E?
In our discussions with investors, the Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE), or Shiller P/E, has come up numerous times as a risk for the U.S. stock...
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Republican Tax Cuts Will Cause Deficits to Balloon, and Bonds to Sell off Dramatically in 2018
-Soaring ISM (PMI 58.2; new orders 64) point to a sharply strengthening US economy in 1H 2018, with scant remaining slack in the labour market. The...
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