Sleepwalking Toward a Possible Trade War
Sometimes misunderstandings can lead to enormous adverse consequences. In 1941, Japan believed that war was inevitable with the United States. The...
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Bubbleology 102: What Could Derail This Momentum Driven Rally?
Last week, we wrote about how the price momentum factor is dominating equity returns (see our publication, Bubbleology 101: How to Spot the Top in...
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Bubbleology 101: How to Spot the Top in a Market Melt-Up
We have a confession to make. We've gone over to the Dark Side. Valuation doesn't matter. Excessively bullish sentiment doesn't matter. Overbought...
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Why a Shrinking Fed Balance Sheet Will Inevitably Lead to Recession in 2018
In the past 60 years, an inverted yield curve has predicted a recession within 15 months on 6 of the previous 7 occasions it has occurred (on the...
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What You Don't See at Market Bottoms: Retail Stampede Edition
It is said that while bottoms are events, tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in; therefore, they can be more easily...
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