Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Yale Hirsch's Presidential Election Cycle theory posits that US equities perform best in third year followed by the election year. Equities are weakest in the year following the election.</li>
<li>Over 6 decades, the S&amp;P500 delivered positive returns in thirteen of sixteen election years. On average, the index returned 4.1% during 1H followed by 3.2% in 2H.</li>
<li>Forget this theory, markets are pricing an 88% chance of rates being slashed starting Sep. Citi analysts expect 200bps of cuts over 8 meetings. Euphoric markets will go on steroids.</li>
</ul>


Yale Hirsch's Presidential Election Cycle theory posits that US equities perform best in third year followed by the election year. Equities are weakest in the year following the election.
Over 6 decades, the S&amp;P500 delivered positive returns in thirteen of sixteen election years. On average, the index returned 4.1% during 1H followed by 3.2% in 2H.
Forget this theory, markets are pricing an 88% chance of rates being slashed starting Sep. Citi analysts expect 200bps of cuts over 8 meetings. Euphoric markets will go on steroids.


Will Presidential Election Cycle Theory Fuel Continued US Equities Rally in 2H 2024?

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Hello and welcome to this week’s Great Game.</li>
<li>The First Round of the French Legislative Election was held on Sunday and the initial results suggested a clear win for Marine Le Pen’s far-right coalition around her National Rally party</li>
<li>Biden is starting to drop rapidly in polls after the US presidential debate.</li>
</ul>


Hello and welcome to this week’s Great Game.
The First Round of the French Legislative Election was held on Sunday and the initial results suggested a clear win for Marine Le Pen’s far-right coalition around her National Rally party
Biden is starting to drop rapidly in polls after the US presidential debate.


Great Game – Biden in Free-Fall and a French Ménage À Trois

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway, Odd Lots

Odd Lots

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

<ul><li>Stocks have rallied significantly in a rising rate environment, defying initial expectations</li><li>There is nervousness in the market due to lack of breadth in stocks and heavy reliance on tech stocks like Nvidia</li><li>Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, accurately predicted the stock market rally, with a target of 5500 for the S&amp;P 500, which is close to the current level of 5475</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Stocks have rallied significantly in a rising rate environment, defying initial expectationsThere is nervousness in the market due to lack of breadth in stocks and heavy reliance on tech stocks like NvidiaTom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, accurately predicted the stock market rally, with a target of 5500 for the S&amp;P 500, which is close to the current level of 5475This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Why Tom Lee Thinks We Could See S&P 15,000 by 2030

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>Our newly invented high-frequency hedge fund positioning data was well received, and we’re working on expanding it to more assets on a running basis.</li><li>It’s worth revisiting the points we raised about concentration in broader equity indices.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.Our newly invented high-frequency hedge fund positioning data was well received, and we’re working on expanding it to more assets on a running basis.It’s worth revisiting the points we raised about concentration in broader equity indices.

Positioning Watch – Increasing the BETA risk?

Podcast series by Dean Curnutt, Alpha Exchange

Alpha Exchange

Podcast series by Dean Curnutt

The Alpha Exchange is a podcast series launched by Dean Curnutt to explore topics in financial markets, risk management and capital allocation in the alternatives industry. Our in depth discussions with highly established industry professionals seek to uncover the nuanced and complex interactions between economic, monetary, financial, regulatory and geopolitical sources of risk. We aim to learn from the perspective our guests can bring with respect to the history of financial and business cycles, promoting a better understanding among listeners as to how prior periods provide important context to present day dynamics. The “price of risk” is an important topic. Here we engage experts in their assessment of risk premium levels in the context of uncertainty. Is the level of compensation attractive? Because Central Banks have played so important a role in markets post crisis, our discussions sometimes aim to better understand the evolution of monetary policy and the degree to which the real and financial economy will be impacted. An especially important area of focus is on derivative products and how they interact with risk taking and carry dynamics. Our conversations seek to enlighten listeners, for example, as to the factors that promoted the February melt-down of the VIX complex. We do NOT ask our guests for their political opinions. We seek a better understanding of the market impact of regulatory change, election outcomes and events of geopolitical consequence. Our discussions cover markets from a macro perspective with an assessment of risk and opportunity across asset classes. Within equity markets, we may explore the relative attractiveness of sectors but will NOT discuss single stocks.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul><li>Dissertation findings show that earnings event risk premium for single stocks makes straddles punitive to own</li><li>Discussion on inflated S&amp;P 500 implied volume levels before macro events like CPI, nonfarm payrolls report, and FOMC meetings</li><li>Recent work on implied dividends shows very little risk premium in dividends, market charging almost nothing for bearing risk of disappointing dividends</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Dissertation findings show that earnings event risk premium for single stocks makes straddles punitive to ownDiscussion on inflated S&amp;P 500 implied volume levels before macro events like CPI, nonfarm payrolls report, and FOMC meetingsRecent work on implied dividends shows very little risk premium in dividends, market charging almost nothing for bearing risk of disappointing dividendsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Garrett DeSimone, Head of Quantitative Research at OptionMetrics

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

Will Presidential Election Cycle Theory Fuel Continued US Equities Rally in 2H 2024?

Over last 60 years, S&P500 delivered positive returns in 13 of 16 election years. It returned +4.1% during 1H followed by +3.2% in 2H. Does...

Mint Finance

Great Game – Biden in Free-Fall and a French Ménage À Trois

Biden is starting to drop rapidly in polls after the US presidential debate. Many polls show Trump to have opened a 2-4 point lead nationally,...

Steno Research

Why Tom Lee Thinks We Could See S&P 15,000 by 2030

In a rising rate environment, stocks have performed unexpectedly well, hitting record highs in the S&;P 500, but concerns linger about the market's...

Odd Lots

Positioning Watch – Increasing the BETA risk?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. Our newly invented high-frequency hedge fund positioning data was well received,...

Steno Research

Garrett DeSimone, Head of Quantitative Research at OptionMetrics

Dissertation findings reveal overpricing of event risk premium in single stocks and the S&P 500, leading to punitive straddle costs and potential...

Alpha Exchange

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