Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.</li><li>The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow &gt;+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.</li><li>The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow &gt;+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.

Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Every week, we assess the risk/reward across asset classes and explain our decisions in our own portfolio.</li><li>We once again note the great diversification effects from Energy over the past week.</li><li>Front month Nat Gas has been on the move in the US despite relatively weak flow data, which is a strong harbinger of an improving underlying demand dynamic in the industrial sector due to the tick-up in orders books in cyclical- and energy intensive sectors such as Chemicals.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Every week, we assess the risk/reward across asset classes and explain our decisions in our own portfolio.We once again note the great diversification effects from Energy over the past week.Front month Nat Gas has been on the move in the US despite relatively weak flow data, which is a strong harbinger of an improving underlying demand dynamic in the industrial sector due to the tick-up in orders books in cyclical- and energy intensive sectors such as Chemicals.

Portfolio Watch: Equities Running Out of Gas?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Expectations since late-September remain unchanged; if $SPX is above 4165-4200/200-day MA, we're bullish, as most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish trend in SPX.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (10/11/23), we have growing confidence that lows are likely in on the SPX, which made a low at 4216 (with 4200 hit exactly overnight 10/4/23).</li>
<li>We also discussed Russell 2000 breadth bottoming last week, and this has continued with bullish breadth divergences on Russell 2000 % of stocks above their 50- and 200-day MAs</li>
</ul>


Expectations since late-September remain unchanged; if $SPX is above 4165-4200/200-day MA, we're bullish, as most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish trend in SPX.
As discussed last week (10/11/23), we have growing confidence that lows are likely in on the SPX, which made a low at 4216 (with 4200 hit exactly overnight 10/4/23).
We also discussed Russell 2000 breadth bottoming last week, and this has continued with bullish breadth divergences on Russell 2000 % of stocks above their 50- and 200-day MAs


Russell 2000 With Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buys in Insurance and Health Care Distributors

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The turnaround from the recent bond market tantrum was mainly attributable to excessive bearishness rather than to fundamental factors.</li>
<li>Bearish sentiment was also evident in the equity market. S&amp;P 500 breadth, as measured by the percentage of stocks above their 50 dma, fell below 10% in the recent sell-off.</li>
<li>Recent episodes of similar breadth wipeouts saw the stocks rally until this indicator reached at least 80%, indicating further upside in the coming weeks</li>
</ul>


The turnaround from the recent bond market tantrum was mainly attributable to excessive bearishness rather than to fundamental factors.
Bearish sentiment was also evident in the equity market. S&amp;P 500 breadth, as measured by the percentage of stocks above their 50 dma, fell below 10% in the recent sell-off.
Recent episodes of similar breadth wipeouts saw the stocks rally until this indicator reached at least 80%, indicating further upside in the coming weeks


<ul>
<li>We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback</li>
<li>Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).</li>
<li>The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback
Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).
The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.


Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Equities Running Out of Gas?

Front month Nat Gas has been on the move in the US despite relatively weak flow data, which is a strong harbinger of an improving underlying demand...

Steno Research

Russell 2000 With Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buys in Insurance and Health Care Distributors

Our view since late Sept remains unchanged: if $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish, as most signs point to this being a...

Vermilion Research

The Term Premium Red Herring

The turnaround from the recent bond market tantrum was mainly attributable to excessive bearishness rather than to fundamental factors.

Cam Hui

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research

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