Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned, which we outline below.</li>
<li>With that said, the bottom line is that the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208 support and the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $135 support.</li>
<li>As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead, but we would turn bearish on breakdowns.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned, which we outline below.
With that said, the bottom line is that the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208 support and the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $135 support.
As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead, but we would turn bearish on breakdowns.


Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments; Semis & Home Improvement Retailers Attractive

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

The market is setting up for a bond market rally based on macro, technical analysis and sentiment perspectives of unknown magnitude and duration with the following implications for other asset classes:•         Bullish for growth stocks over value stocks;•         Expect a pause in the cyclical and reflation trade, which is highly correlated to value;•         USD bearish; and•         Gold bullish.

The market is setting up for a bond market rally based on macro, technical analysis and sentiment perspectives of unknown magnitude and duration with the following implications for other asset classes:•         Bullish for growth stocks over value stocks;•         Expect a pause in the cyclical and reflation trade, which is highly correlated to value;•         USD bearish; and•         Gold bullish.

Did anyone notice the upside breakouts in both gold and gold mining stocks? In the short term, gold may have to contend with overhead resistance at the site of its 200-day moving average (dma). While we are no gold bugs, the breakout could be a technical signal of an intermediate bullish phase for precious metals.We conclude that the upside breakout in gold is constructive for the precious metals complex. Moreover, we have laid out a scenario offered by Jurrien Timmer at Fidelity of how gold prices could go parabolic by 2023.In addition, the price action of the precious metals has important macro implications for other asset classes. In this environment, investors should focus on stocks that can continue to grow earnings in the current environment. This means companies that can pass on their rising input costs and cyclical sectors and industries that can benefit from strong sales growth.

Did anyone notice the upside breakouts in both gold and gold mining stocks? In the short term, gold may have to contend with overhead resistance at the site of its 200-day moving average (dma). While we are no gold bugs, the breakout could be a technical signal of an intermediate bullish phase for precious metals.We conclude that the upside breakout in gold is constructive for the precious metals complex. Moreover, we have laid out a scenario offered by Jurrien Timmer at Fidelity of how gold prices could go parabolic by 2023.In addition, the price action of the precious metals has important macro implications for other asset classes. In this environment, investors should focus on stocks that can continue to grow earnings in the current environment. This means companies that can pass on their rising input costs and cyclical sectors and industries that can benefit from strong sales growth.

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-snapshot-update-on-bitcoin-vs-gold-via-text-mining" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46576" rel="noopener">TMI Snapshot:  Update on Bitcoin Vs. Gold Via Text Mining</a> we compared the trajectory of sentiment in articles discussing BTC as a "store of value" relative to similar mentions of gold; at the time, December 22, we saw a sharp divergence with BTC "store of value" sentiment at a new high of +2x STDEVs while gold was gathering significant negative momentum on the same topic</li>
<li>Trends have been mean-reverting since, with sentiment for BTC softer on the "store of value" question while gold continues to stabilize</li>
<li>The discussion of gold as an inflation hedge has made a notable comeback (volumetrically) after dropping sharply around the November elections; this has not affected the BTC inflation hedge narrative, which continues to trend despite recent volatility</li>
<li>Reports of BTC institutional adoption surged in November-December and are still trending albeit at a slower rate; but discussion of cryptocurrency regulation has surged in recent weeks to a new multi-year high</li>
<li>Mentions of BTC in conjunction with "bubble" are up 4-5x STDEVs since the second week of January</li>
<li>Based on the above signals, and in the context of the alleged "double-spend" headlines, the prevailing narrative of BTC competing with gold over the same AUM pool in a zero-sum game appears to be losing steam on the margin</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tool text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


In TMI Snapshot:  Update on Bitcoin Vs. Gold Via Text Mining we compared the trajectory of sentiment in articles discussing BTC as a "store of value" relative to similar mentions of gold; at the time, December 22, we saw a sharp divergence with BTC "store of value" sentiment at a new high of +2x STDEVs while gold was gathering significant negative momentum on the same topic
Trends have been mean-reverting since, with sentiment for BTC softer on the "store of value" question while gold continues to stabilize
The discussion of gold as an inflation hedge has made a notable comeback (volumetrically) after dropping sharply around the November elections; this has not affected the BTC inflation hedge narrative, which continues to trend despite recent volatility
Reports of BTC institutional adoption surged in November-December and are still trending albeit at a slower rate; but discussion of cryptocurrency regulation has surged in recent weeks to a new multi-year high
Mentions of BTC in conjunction with "bubble" are up 4-5x STDEVs since the second week of January
Based on the above signals, and in the context of the alleged "double-spend" headlines, the prevailing narrative of BTC competing with gold over the same AUM pool in a zero-sum game appears to be losing steam on the margin
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tool text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Bitcoin Vs. Gold Update and Recent Crypto Topics Via Text Mining

United States

SPDR Gold Shares is an investment fund incorporated in the USA.  The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses. The Trust holds gold and is expected from time to time to issue Baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and to distribute gold in connection with redemptions of Baskets.

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SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments; Semis & Home Improvement Retailers Attractive

Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned. However, the bottom line is that Russell 2000 (IWM) is...

Vermilion Research

Poised For A Bond Market Rally

The market is setting up for a bond market rally based on macro, technical analysis and sentiment perspectives of unknown magnitude and duration...

Cam Hui

Interpreting the Gold Breakout

The upside breakout in gold is constructive for the precious metals complex. The price action of the precious metals has also important macro...

Cam Hui

TMI Snapshot: Bitcoin Vs. Gold Update and Recent Crypto Topics Via Text Mining

Last month our text-mining saw powerful narratives emerge around Bitcoin as an alternative to gold, but recent vol has weakened the BTC "store of...

Elan Gore

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