European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bain has a 10.01% stake (likely acquired &lt;€32/share) and could play nasty: its stake is enough to block a squeeze-out, and if it launches a €34/share offer, it will be hostile.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, Silver Lake (5% recently acquired+25.1% from the foundation) has sweetened to €32/share (19.4x EV/Fwd EBIT, well above 11.1x last-10y average). The Board could change sides (as recently with Caverion).</li>
<li>The shares trade 3.5% above Silver Lake's, but at a discount of 2.5% to Bain's possible offer. The market believes Bain will bid. I raise my TP to €32.</li>
</ul>


Bain has a 10.01% stake (likely acquired &lt;€32/share) and could play nasty: its stake is enough to block a squeeze-out, and if it launches a €34/share offer, it will be hostile.
Meanwhile, Silver Lake (5% recently acquired+25.1% from the foundation) has sweetened to €32/share (19.4x EV/Fwd EBIT, well above 11.1x last-10y average). The Board could change sides (as recently with Caverion).
The shares trade 3.5% above Silver Lake's, but at a discount of 2.5% to Bain's possible offer. The market believes Bain will bid. I raise my TP to €32.


<ul>
<li>Silver Lake has announced its intention to launch a cash offer to delist Software AG at €30/share (53% premium, 12.7x EV/NTM EBITDA, 20.5x Fwd P/E), targeting 37% of the float.</li>
<li>The Board is suportive and Silver Lake does not seek a domination agreement. The offer price <strong>will not be adjusted</strong> by the next dividend (€0.05, ex-date 19 May).</li>
<li>My fair value estimate (EV/EBITDA based) is €26.54/share, the offer price seems adequate. The offer targets 37.6% of the float, feasible. Gross spread (incl. divi) is 0.97%, not terribly exciting.</li>
</ul>


Silver Lake has announced its intention to launch a cash offer to delist Software AG at €30/share (53% premium, 12.7x EV/NTM EBITDA, 20.5x Fwd P/E), targeting 37% of the float.
The Board is suportive and Silver Lake does not seek a domination agreement. The offer price will not be adjusted by the next dividend (€0.05, ex-date 19 May).
My fair value estimate (EV/EBITDA based) is €26.54/share, the offer price seems adequate. The offer targets 37.6% of the float, feasible. Gross spread (incl. divi) is 0.97%, not terribly exciting.


Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Wuestenrot & Wuerttembergische / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The March 2023 index changes for the DAX index family were confirmed after the close on Friday 3rd March 2023.</li>
<li>There will be one change for DAX, two for MDAX, and two for SDAX mostly in line with our expectations. Separately, there is also a change in TecDAX.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows and the recent price and volume performance of the names involved in the index rebalance event.</li>
</ul>


The March 2023 index changes for the DAX index family were confirmed after the close on Friday 3rd March 2023.
There will be one change for DAX, two for MDAX, and two for SDAX mostly in line with our expectations. Separately, there is also a change in TecDAX.
In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows and the recent price and volume performance of the names involved in the index rebalance event.


Quiddity Flow Expectations for DAX Mar 23 Rebal: WUW GR Vs SDAX Seems Interesting

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.</li>
<li>In the March 2023 review, I do not see any changes for the DAX index although a couple names are close to the border.</li>
<li>As it stands, I currently expect two more changes between MDAX and SDAX and one more ADD/DEL for the SDAX index based on the latest available data.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.
In the March 2023 review, I do not see any changes for the DAX index although a couple names are close to the border.
As it stands, I currently expect two more changes between MDAX and SDAX and one more ADD/DEL for the SDAX index based on the latest available data.


Quiddity Leaderboard for DAX Mar 23: Linde DEL Triggers US$2.7bn Reverse Funding Flows

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance remains higher for global equities (MSCI ACWI). As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a positive outlook is warranted. Support levels to watch include $75 on ACWI-US, $44 on ACWX-US, $41 on EEM-US, and $60 on EFA-US. We recap significant technical levels across major markets and highlight specific opportunities within the Technology and Materials Sectors.</p>

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance remains higher for global equities (MSCI ACWI). As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a positive outlook is warranted. Support levels to watch include $75 on ACWI-US, $44 on ACWX-US, $41 on EEM-US, and $60 on EFA-US. We recap significant technical levels across major markets and highlight specific opportunities within the Technology and Materials Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Germany

TeamViewer AG operates as a holding company for TeamViewer Group which is operating a global connectivity platform. TeamViewer offers software solutions to remotely access and connect any computer, tablet, laptop, mobile device, and IoT endpoint such as industrial machines to allow remote control, management, and monitoring of devices as well as interaction and collaboration.

EQS Group AG provides online corporate communications services. The Company's services include financial disclosure, distribution of press releases, corporate websites, financial portals, webcasts, online reports and mobile platforms.

CANCOM SE is an integrated information technology (IT) services provider. The Company provides IT products and services. CANCOM's products and services include security, network and system solutions, communication, storage, backup and archive services, and IT management.

The Naga Group AG designs and produces application software. The Company conceptualizes, develops, and launches technology ventures for financial industries. Naga Group serves customers in Germany.

GFT Technologies SE offers software development and consulting services to clients primarily in the area of web-based IT systems. The Company offers IT-business consulting, digital design, system implementation, and support services. GFT Technologies also provides customer training.

Bechtle AG retails computer and office supplies.  The Company markets personal computers, workstations, computer peripherals, mobile devices, computer software, computer networking products, presentation equipment, paper, computer consumables, office furniture, and telecommunications equipment.  Bechtle sells its products through its catalog and Internet website.

SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner AG provides software and software related services for the business landscape transformation. The Company's software is used by businesses to implement changes to their IT landscape, business processes and structures. SNP also offer consulting services.

Snp Schneider-Neureither & Partner Ag (SHF GY)

Datagroup SE provides information technology services. The Company offers data center, application development, IT consulting, and other related services. Datagroup operates worldwide.

Siltronic AG manufactures hyperpure silicon wafers. The Company offers products including non-polished and epitaxial coated wafers with different diameter sizes. Siltronic caters its products worldwide for use in computers, smartphones, flat-panel displays, navigation systems, automotive engine control systems, and many other applications.

Aixtron SE engineers and manufactures metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) equipment for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers use its equipment to produce compound semiconductor layer structures for use in LED, laser, solar cell, transistor, telecommunications, and other applications. Aixtron markets its products worldwide.

Kingdee International Software Group Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and sells enterprise management software, e-commerce application software and middleware software.  The Company also provides internet-based services and setting up e-commerce platforms for enterprises. In addition, Kingdee provides solution consulting and technical support services.

Kingsoft Corporation Ltd. develops and markets computer software.  The Company develops role-playing computer games and security, word processing, and spreadsheet software.

Beijing Venustech Inc. provides a variety of information security products, information security services and information security solutions.  The Company's products and services are intrusion detection systems, intrusion prevention systems, firewalls, real-time monitoring and security management certification training services.

Jiangsu Hoperun Software Company Limited provides software outsourcing services for professional fields. The Company's main products include supply chain management software, intelligent terminal embedded software, and smart grid IT software outsourcing services.

Sapiens International Corporation N.V. is a global provider of information technology (IT) solutions. The Company's solutions modernize business processes and enable insurance organizations and other companies to adapt quickly to change. Sapiens modular solutions align IT with the business demands for speed, flexibility, and efficiency.

NCSOFT Corporation develops and markets on-line games that enable users to play over the Internet and computer software, such as web editing software.  The Company also designs and constructs databases, Intranet, and commercial Internet access systems.

RingCentral, Inc. is a provider of software-as-a-service, or SaaS, solutions for business communications. The Company offers a multi-user, enterprise-grade communications solution that enables customers and their employees to communicate via voice, text, HD video and web conferencing and fax, on multiple devices, including smartphones, tablets, PCs and desk phones.

Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co.,Ltd. develops and sells management information system software for the Hotel industry. The Company also provides IT system integration and IT technology support services.

Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co., Ltd. (002153 CH)

Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co., Ltd.

Progress Software Corporation develops, markets, and distributes application development, deployment, and integration software to business, industry, and government worldwide.  The Company's products include databases, application servers, messaging servers, and development tools for Internet/Web, extranet, and intranet applications as well as for client/server and host applications.

Glodon Company Limited develops application softwares for basic construction industry. The Company's products include construction engineering cost management software and project cost management software. The Company also provides related training and consulting services.

Software AG operates as a software development company. The Company enables enterprises to integrate, connect, and manage IoT components, as well as analyze data and predict future events based on artificial intelligence. Software serves customers worldwide.

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Software (SOW GR)

Sweetened Offer and Bain Interloping

Software AG agreed on 4 May to amend the investment agreement concluded on 21 April with Silver Lake. The offer price is increased to €32.00, an...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Silver Lake/Software AG: Agreed Offer

Silver Lake offers €30/share in cash (plus €0.05 divi), 53% premium, 12.7x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA and 20.5x Fwd P/E, and intends to delist Software AG....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Flow Expectations for DAX Mar 23 Rebal: WUW GR Vs SDAX Seems Interesting

I would be Bullish SDAX ADD Wuestenrot & Wuerttembergische (WUW GR) vs the SDAX index because historically SDAX ADDs have clearly outperformed the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard for DAX Mar 23: Linde DEL Triggers US$2.7bn Reverse Funding Flows

The largest DAX member Linde AG (LIN GR) is expected to get deleted in February 2023 triggering extraordinary index changes and US$2.7bn in reverse...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance remains higher for global equities (MSCI ACWI). As long as...

Vermilion Research

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