European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Silver Lake/Software AG: Bain Clears the Way

Bain Capital/SoftwareOne: Room for a Better Offer

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bain has a 10.01% stake (likely acquired &lt;€32/share) and could play nasty: its stake is enough to block a squeeze-out, and if it launches a €34/share offer, it will be hostile.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, Silver Lake (5% recently acquired+25.1% from the foundation) has sweetened to €32/share (19.4x EV/Fwd EBIT, well above 11.1x last-10y average). The Board could change sides (as recently with Caverion).</li>
<li>The shares trade 3.5% above Silver Lake's, but at a discount of 2.5% to Bain's possible offer. The market believes Bain will bid. I raise my TP to €32.</li>
</ul>


Bain has a 10.01% stake (likely acquired &lt;€32/share) and could play nasty: its stake is enough to block a squeeze-out, and if it launches a €34/share offer, it will be hostile.
Meanwhile, Silver Lake (5% recently acquired+25.1% from the foundation) has sweetened to €32/share (19.4x EV/Fwd EBIT, well above 11.1x last-10y average). The Board could change sides (as recently with Caverion).
The shares trade 3.5% above Silver Lake's, but at a discount of 2.5% to Bain's possible offer. The market believes Bain will bid. I raise my TP to €32.


Software

Sweetened Offer and Bain Interloping