European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Commerzbank’s incoming CEO Bettina Orlopp announced talks with UniCredit on September 27 regarding a potential merger. Despite opposition from management and Chancellor Scholz, some investors support the discussions.</li>
<li>Since UniCredit's entry into Commerzbank on September 10, Commerzbank's stock has surged 30%, outperforming UniCredit's 9.2% rise and the European banking sector's 6.3% gain.</li>
<li>Buying Commerzbank is strategically and financially logical. In conclusion, I maintain my recommendation to buy Commerzbank speculatively.</li>
</ul>


Commerzbank’s incoming CEO Bettina Orlopp announced talks with UniCredit on September 27 regarding a potential merger. Despite opposition from management and Chancellor Scholz, some investors support the discussions.
Since UniCredit's entry into Commerzbank on September 10, Commerzbank's stock has surged 30%, outperforming UniCredit's 9.2% rise and the European banking sector's 6.3% gain.
Buying Commerzbank is strategically and financially logical. In conclusion, I maintain my recommendation to buy Commerzbank speculatively.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a> has raised its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commerzbank-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21596:1" rel="noopener">Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)</a> stake to 21%; Chancellor Scholz called it "hostile takeover". UniCredit also filed to increase its stake up to 29.9%.</li>
<li>Commerzbank’s valuation multiples remain attractive, as despite a 21.3% rise in its stock, it still trades at a price-to-book ratio (P/B) of just 0.57x, compared to UniCredit’s 0.98x.</li>
<li>The conditions remain favorable for a potential premium acquisition by UniCredit, as acquiring Commerzbank makes both strategic and financial sense. Thus I recommend to buy Commerzbank speculatively.</li>
</ul>



UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) has raised its Commerzbank AG (CBK GR) stake to 21%; Chancellor Scholz called it "hostile takeover". UniCredit also filed to increase its stake up to 29.9%.
Commerzbank’s valuation multiples remain attractive, as despite a 21.3% rise in its stock, it still trades at a price-to-book ratio (P/B) of just 0.57x, compared to UniCredit’s 0.98x.
The conditions remain favorable for a potential premium acquisition by UniCredit, as acquiring Commerzbank makes both strategic and financial sense. Thus I recommend to buy Commerzbank speculatively.


US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aib-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43916:1" rel="noopener">AIB Group (AIBG IE)</a> is expected to experience an increase in free float from 75% to 80% in November 2024 due to the Irish Government reducing its stake this month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commerzbank-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21596:1" rel="noopener">Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)</a> is forecasted to have a ~2% points free float <em>decrease</em> in Global and European Indices as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit</a> bought more than what the German Government sold.</li>
<li>The UK Government continues slashing its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/natwest-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21008:1" rel="noopener">NatWest Group (NWG LN)</a> with potential further free float increases coming in November and December 2024.</li>
</ul>



AIB Group (AIBG IE) is expected to experience an increase in free float from 75% to 80% in November 2024 due to the Irish Government reducing its stake this month.

Commerzbank AG (CBK GR) is forecasted to have a ~2% points free float decrease in Global and European Indices as UniCredit bought more than what the German Government sold.
The UK Government continues slashing its stake in NatWest Group (NWG LN) with potential further free float increases coming in November and December 2024.


European Governments' Bank Sell-Off: Boosting Confidence and Occasionally Free Float

<ul>
<li>The German Government is planning to reduce its stake in private companies (100+), which is reviving the talk of a merger between Commerzbank (15.75% owned by Germany) and Deutsche Bank.</li>
<li>In case of a (logical) all-share merger, the German Government would just exchange a 15.75% stake in Commerzbank for a smaller one in the New Deutsche Bank (estimated ~5.75%).</li>
<li>The most likely outcome is an accelerated book build among institutional investors (as the British Government has done with Natwest, formerly RBS, in the past), in my view.</li>
</ul>


The German Government is planning to reduce its stake in private companies (100+), which is reviving the talk of a merger between Commerzbank (15.75% owned by Germany) and Deutsche Bank.
In case of a (logical) all-share merger, the German Government would just exchange a 15.75% stake in Commerzbank for a smaller one in the New Deutsche Bank (estimated ~5.75%).
The most likely outcome is an accelerated book build among institutional investors (as the British Government has done with Natwest, formerly RBS, in the past), in my view.


Deutsche Bank/Commerzbank: Quick Take on Merger Talks

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Germany

Commerzbank AG attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services.  The Bank offers mortgage loans, securities brokerage and asset management services, private banking, foreign exchange, and treasury services worldwide.

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Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)

Commerzbank Enters Talks with Unicredit

Commerzbank’s incoming CEO announced talks with UniCredit on September 27. Despite opposition from management and Chancellor Scholz, some investors...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Unicredit Is Moving Fast

UniCredit raises stake in Commerzbank to 21%. Commerzbank remains undervalued with attractive multiples, making it a potential target for...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

European Governments' Bank Sell-Off: Boosting Confidence and Occasionally Free Float

European governments are reducing stakes in AIB Group, Commerzbank AG, and NatWest, and triggering changes in free float percentages for European...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Deutsche Bank/Commerzbank: Quick Take on Merger Talks

German Government plans to reduce stake in private companies, which has helped revive merger talks between Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Commerzbank Enters Talks with Unicredit

Commerzbank’s incoming CEO announced talks with UniCredit on September 27. Despite opposition from management and Chancellor Scholz, some investors...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Unicredit Is Moving Fast

​UniCredit raises stake in Commerzbank to 21%. Commerzbank remains undervalued with attractive multiples, making it a potential target for...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

European Governments' Bank Sell-Off: Boosting Confidence and Occasionally Free Float

​European governments are reducing stakes in AIB Group, Commerzbank AG, and NatWest, and triggering changes in free float percentages for European...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Deutsche Bank/Commerzbank: Quick Take on Merger Talks

​German Government plans to reduce stake in private companies, which has helped revive merger talks between Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

UniCredit raises stake in Commerzbank to 21%. Commerzbank remains undervalued with attractive multiples, making it a potential target for...

European governments are reducing stakes in AIB Group, Commerzbank AG, and NatWest, and triggering changes in free float percentages for European...

German Government plans to reduce stake in private companies, which has helped revive merger talks between Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank.