Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Softbank Group (SBG) has delivered acceptable Q2/22-23 results. Despite the large loss on investments, the company monetised an even greater amount of Alibaba shares to record a large quarterly net gain. As a result, the financial risk profile did not deteriorate. LTV was mostly stable q-o-q, improving since March 2022. Liquidity has strengthened, and now covers four years of planned bond redemptions. The significant debt reduction and acceleration of share buybacks showed that SBG is trying to balance shareholders' and creditors' interests. In the past, SBG appeared more aligned towards shareholders' interests, with frequent mentions of the share price's discount to NAV, as well as large share purchases since 2016.

  Softbank Group (SBG) has delivered acceptable Q2/22-23 results. Despite the large loss on investments, the company monetised an even greater amount of Alibaba shares to record a large quarterly net gain. As a result, the financial risk profile did not deteriorate. LTV was mostly stable q-o-q, improving since March 2022. Liquidity has strengthened, and now covers four years of planned bond redemptions.   The significant debt reduction and acceleration of share buybacks showed that SBG is trying to balance shareholders' and creditors' interests. In the past, SBG appeared more aligned towards shareholders' interests, with frequent mentions of the share price's discount to NAV, as well as large share purchases since 2016. 

Softbank Group - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2022-23 Results - Lucror Analytics

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Headline 2QFY22 results for Softbank Group were in the black, largely due to the Alibaba stake sale, but the group’s three funds registered an aggregate USD10bn of valuation losses</li>
<li>FTX’s write-down to zero will cost Softbank’s Vision Fund 2 USD100m in 3Q22, our main concern is what the VC funding downturn means for portfolio valuations in the coming quarter</li>
<li>The group’s NAV discount has now tightened meaningfully; we believe that this makes it less advantageous for management to announce another share buy-back programme</li>
</ul>


Headline 2QFY22 results for Softbank Group were in the black, largely due to the Alibaba stake sale, but the group’s three funds registered an aggregate USD10bn of valuation losses
FTX’s write-down to zero will cost Softbank’s Vision Fund 2 USD100m in 3Q22, our main concern is what the VC funding downturn means for portfolio valuations in the coming quarter
The group’s NAV discount has now tightened meaningfully; we believe that this makes it less advantageous for management to announce another share buy-back programme


Softbank Group (9984 JP) –Vision and LatAm Funds Take Another USD10bn Valuation Hit in 2Q 22

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Seven &amp; I has at last agreed to sell the ailing Sogo Seibu chain – although not for enough to offset years of investment with little to show for it.</li>
<li>Some hope that this means the start of a house cleaning exercise to rid the group of its multiple under-performing retail assets, leaving a gleaming exemplar of rational efficiency.</li>
<li>This is unlikely, especially for the original Ito-Yokado general merchandise chain and a problem given the lack of growth potential in the group's domestic business.</li>
</ul>


Seven &amp; I has at last agreed to sell the ailing Sogo Seibu chain – although not for enough to offset years of investment with little to show for it.
Some hope that this means the start of a house cleaning exercise to rid the group of its multiple under-performing retail assets, leaving a gleaming exemplar of rational efficiency.
This is unlikely, especially for the original Ito-Yokado general merchandise chain and a problem given the lack of growth potential in the group's domestic business.


Selling Sogo Seibu Doesn't Mean Seven & I Will Sell Ito-Yokado

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front,  Indian IPOs continue to trickle in, while other regions appear to be waking up from their slumber.</li>
<li>There were a few GDR issuances this week, along with another placement in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a> and a number of lock-up expiries. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front,  Indian IPOs continue to trickle in, while other regions appear to be waking up from their slumber.
There were a few GDR issuances this week, along with another placement in Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) and a number of lock-up expiries. 


ECM Weekly (13th Nov 2022) - I-Tail, Blibli, Nykaa, PB Fin, Five Star, Archean, GDRs, Axis Bank

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.


Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Softbank Group - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2022-23 Results - Lucror Analytics

Softbank Group (SBG) has delivered acceptable Q2/22-23 results. Despite the large loss on investments, the company monetised an even greater...

Lucror Analytics