Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

Equity Bottom-Up

Meta Platforms (Facebook) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>During the weekend, I asked my twitter followers: What do you think Facebook's DAU to MAU ratio was in 2009?</li><li>The number that got the highest votes was ~80% even though I mentioned the most recent number was ~68%.</li><li>I asked this question a couple of friends in real life too and they too picked the ~80% number.</li></ul>

During the weekend, I asked my twitter followers: What do you think Facebook's DAU to MAU ratio was in 2009?The number that got the highest votes was ~80% even though I mentioned the most recent number was ~68%.I asked this question a couple of friends in real life too and they too picked the ~80% number.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Tencent has been busy distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years, with JD.com’s distribution announced in 2021 and Meituan’s in 2022.</li>
<li>In our earlier note in 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-investee-selldown-the-us-120bn-global-overhang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81153" rel="noopener">Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang</a>, we had looked at its overall investment portfolio.</li>
<li>With two of its large investments spun-out, we now re-look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how. </li>
</ul>


Tencent has been busy distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years, with JD.com’s distribution announced in 2021 and Meituan’s in 2022.
In our earlier note in 2022, Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang, we had looked at its overall investment portfolio.
With two of its large investments spun-out, we now re-look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how. 


Tencent Investee Selldown - JD.com Done, Meituan Done, Two More Still Left

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Profitability ready to kick in again as Amazon grows into the overbuilt warehouse capacity and headcount from the past few quarters. 3Q22's guidance clearly conservative based on 2Q22's outperformance.</li>
<li>Revenue reacceleration beginning to play out. 2Q22's 7% leading to 3Q22's 15%, and back to the 20%s by 2023.</li>
<li>AWS continues its indomitable run. $79B TTM revenues are growing 37% with 31% margins.</li>
</ul>


Profitability ready to kick in again as Amazon grows into the overbuilt warehouse capacity and headcount from the past few quarters. 3Q22's guidance clearly conservative based on 2Q22's outperformance.
Revenue reacceleration beginning to play out. 2Q22's 7% leading to 3Q22's 15%, and back to the 20%s by 2023.
AWS continues its indomitable run. $79B TTM revenues are growing 37% with 31% margins.


Amazon 2Q22: Delivering an Inflection Point

<ul>
<li>5 Issues: Tough Comps, Supply Chain Disruptions, Reels MixShift, Apple IDFA, and TikTok...thats alot of issues</li>
<li>TikTok is pressuring engagement and Google is taking Facebook's advertising revenues.</li>
<li>Strong management team with history of executing at a trough valuation provides a good entry point. But may make more sense to just buy Google.</li>
</ul>


5 Issues: Tough Comps, Supply Chain Disruptions, Reels MixShift, Apple IDFA, and TikTok...thats alot of issues
TikTok is pressuring engagement and Google is taking Facebook's advertising revenues.
Strong management team with history of executing at a trough valuation provides a good entry point. But may make more sense to just buy Google.


Facebook 4Q21: Trending on TikTok ‘How to Lose $200B in Market Cap’

<ul>
<li>Roblox is early days in so many new TAMs: advertising, music, commerce, education.</li>
<li>The advertising opportunity is enormous, given the amount of hours spent on the platform, one can easily see Roblox building a $2B+ ad business.</li>
<li>Roblox is still early in building out the infrastructure to support many new forms of monetization, and they are doing so in a thoughtful fashion.</li>
</ul>


Roblox is early days in so many new TAMs: advertising, music, commerce, education.
The advertising opportunity is enormous, given the amount of hours spent on the platform, one can easily see Roblox building a $2B+ ad business.
Roblox is still early in building out the infrastructure to support many new forms of monetization, and they are doing so in a thoughtful fashion.


United States

Snap Inc. provides technology and social media services. The Company develops mobile camera application products and services that allow users to send and receive photos, drawings, text, and videos. Snap serves customers worldwide.

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Snap (SNAP US)

Meta's Moat

During the weekend, I asked my twitter followers: What do you think Facebook's DAU to MAU ratio was in 2009? The number that got the highest votes...

MBI Deep Dives

Tencent Investee Selldown - JD.com Done, Meituan Done, Two More Still Left

Tencent has been distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years. In this note, we look at which of its remaining investee...

Sumeet Singh

Amazon 2Q22: Delivering an Inflection Point

Amazon's revenue growth is beginning to reaccelerate. Its cost growth is decelerating. Advertising is the best house in a tough digital...

Aaron Gabin

Roblox Analyst Day: TAM Unlimited

We wrote about Roblox after its most recent earnings in early November and our general take was… great quarter, but was it really worth a 30%...

Aaron Gabin

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Meta's Moat

During the weekend, I asked my twitter followers: What do you think Facebook's DAU to MAU ratio was in 2009? The number that got the highest votes...

MBI Deep Dives

Tencent Investee Selldown - JD.com Done, Meituan Done, Two More Still Left

Tencent has been distributing shares in some of its investments over the past two years. In this note, we look at which of its remaining investee...

Sumeet Singh

Amazon 2Q22: Delivering an Inflection Point

Amazon's revenue growth is beginning to reaccelerate. Its cost growth is decelerating. Advertising is the best house in a tough digital...

Aaron Gabin

Facebook 4Q21: Trending on TikTok ‘How to Lose $200B in Market Cap’

TikTok's threat doesn’t impact the wave of monetization opportunities related to commerce, messaging, and the metaverse. FB trading at the same...

Aaron Gabin

Roblox Analyst Day: TAM Unlimited

We wrote about Roblox after its most recent earnings in early November and our general take was… great quarter, but was it really worth a 30%...

Aaron Gabin