TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Snapchat's guidedown resulting in a 30% drawdown is fantastical.  6x sales is now 4x sales, near alltime lows.</li>
<li>Was guide down worth 30% drawdown given already valuation compression and  volatility of Snap guidance? Sour grapes here.</li>
<li>Of course macro deteriorated. Who is doing Snap's forecasting? We think forecasting easier to fix than LT competitive moat. We'd buy SNAP...but buy FB first!</li>
</ul>


Snapchat's guidedown resulting in a 30% drawdown is fantastical.  6x sales is now 4x sales, near alltime lows.
Was guide down worth 30% drawdown given already valuation compression and  volatility of Snap guidance? Sour grapes here.
Of course macro deteriorated. Who is doing Snap's forecasting? We think forecasting easier to fix than LT competitive moat. We'd buy SNAP...but buy FB first!


Snapchat Guidedown: Overdone, But Buy FB/AMZN First

Meta Platforms (Facebook) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Solid earnings call heightened our conviction in Facebook as a terrific long for the next year.</li>
<li>Reels monetization headwind will become a tailwind... just a question of when. TikTok threat is real, but Facebook knows how to clone other's innovations.</li>
<li>Apple IDFA issues not worsening, Facebook will figure this out eventually.</li>
</ul>


Solid earnings call heightened our conviction in Facebook as a terrific long for the next year.
Reels monetization headwind will become a tailwind... just a question of when. TikTok threat is real, but Facebook knows how to clone other's innovations.
Apple IDFA issues not worsening, Facebook will figure this out eventually.


Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

<ul>
<li>Tencent’s increase in investment acquisition activity has coincided with a general weakness in equity prices and valuation levels.</li>
<li>Tencent management’s assessment of the fair value of its listed investee holdings, of RMB982.8bn on 31 December 2021, equates to roughly 27.4% of its market cap.</li>
<li>The market value of Tencent’s investee holdings in more-mature, Chinese-listed, internet-orientated holdings equates to roughly 9% of its current market cap.</li>
</ul>


Tencent’s increase in investment acquisition activity has coincided with a general weakness in equity prices and valuation levels.
Tencent management’s assessment of the fair value of its listed investee holdings, of RMB982.8bn on 31 December 2021, equates to roughly 27.4% of its market cap.
The market value of Tencent’s investee holdings in more-mature, Chinese-listed, internet-orientated holdings equates to roughly 9% of its current market cap.


Tencent: Investments up as Valuations Drop, Room for Another Significant Special in Specie Dividend

<ul>
<li>Snapchat largely dispelled the Apple bear case, and should return to the mid $60s.</li>
<li>Actual competitive differentiation vs. TikTok and Facebook means Snapchat's user growth and engagement remain strong.</li>
<li>Revenue growth will reaccelerate as it works through IDFA, but international monetization is the kicker.</li>
</ul>


Snapchat largely dispelled the Apple bear case, and should return to the mid $60s.
Actual competitive differentiation vs. TikTok and Facebook means Snapchat's user growth and engagement remain strong.
Revenue growth will reaccelerate as it works through IDFA, but international monetization is the kicker.


Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

Research on Tech Companies

Evelyn Zhang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>It'll take another 3-5 years of further development for VR and AR products to reach the level of user experience and reduction in cost necessary for wide commercial adoption. </li>
<li>The emergence of blockbuster AAA content will aid the large-scale adoption of Metaverse hardware, user generated contents are much lower in development cost,  a trend pioneered by Roblox &amp;Epic Games.</li>
<li>A-Share listed companies mainly focus on hardware value chain. China's video game regulator hasn't approved any new titles since July 2021. Leading Chinese companies are focusing on the commercial application.  </li>
</ul>


It'll take another 3-5 years of further development for VR and AR products to reach the level of user experience and reduction in cost necessary for wide commercial adoption. 
The emergence of blockbuster AAA content will aid the large-scale adoption of Metaverse hardware, user generated contents are much lower in development cost,  a trend pioneered by Roblox &amp;Epic Games.
A-Share listed companies mainly focus on hardware value chain. China's video game regulator hasn't approved any new titles since July 2021. Leading Chinese companies are focusing on the commercial application.  


Virtual Smoke and Mirror—Vision to Reality

United States

Snap Inc. provides technology and social media services. The Company develops mobile camera application products and services that allow users to send and receive photos, drawings, text, and videos. Snap serves customers worldwide.

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Snap (SNAP US)

Snapchat Guidedown: Overdone, But Buy FB/AMZN First

Snapchat guidedown costs 30% on its already massacred share price. We think this is overdone. SNAP has a bad history of volatile financial...

Aaron Gabin

Facebook 1Q22: TikTok-Ified

Positively addressed IDFA, spending, and monetization concerns. Facebook is massively undervalued. We think its worth at least $290, which is 50%...

Aaron Gabin

Tencent: Investments up as Valuations Drop, Room for Another Significant Special in Specie Dividend

In this insight, we analyse Tencent’s recent investment activity and notable investee holdings to evaluate the potential for another meaningful...

Wium Malan, CFA

Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

With Snapchat's LT thesis restored, we would buy the stock even up 50%. A return to its 5 yr P/S average of 14x would equate to $66 on 2023 revenues.

Aaron Gabin

Virtual Smoke and Mirror—Vision to Reality

The recent surge in Metaverse have brought VR & AR back into the focus of the market. So is the Metaverse finally ready for prime time or still a...

Evelyn Zhang

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