Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

Smoore International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The new draft of the e-cigarette law will crack down the domestic market.</li>
<li>The revenue growth rate plunged in 2H21 despite the fact that the growth rate accelerated for the whole year 2021.</li>
<li>We set a downside of 27% and a price target of HK$13.90 for 2022.</li>
</ul>


The new draft of the e-cigarette law will crack down the domestic market.
The revenue growth rate plunged in 2H21 despite the fact that the growth rate accelerated for the whole year 2021.
We set a downside of 27% and a price target of HK$13.90 for 2022.


Smoore (6969 HK): Harsher E-Cigarette Law and Lower Growth Rate in 2H21

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rlx-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31113:1" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Inc (RLX US)</a> announced a buyback of $500m, which is around 8.3% of the company’s share capital.</li>
<li>We expect short coverings following the buyback news possibly resulting in a second short squeeze in quick succession.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the valuation mismatch between RLX and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International (6969 HK)</a> provides traders with an opportunity to a Long RLX/Short Smoore market-neutral pair trade.</li>
</ul>



RLX Technology Inc (RLX US) announced a buyback of $500m, which is around 8.3% of the company’s share capital.
We expect short coverings following the buyback news possibly resulting in a second short squeeze in quick succession.
Meanwhile, the valuation mismatch between RLX and Smoore International (6969 HK) provides traders with an opportunity to a Long RLX/Short Smoore market-neutral pair trade.


RLX Technology to Buyback 33% of The Free Float: Time To Reverse The Long Smoore/Short RLX Trade

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS have Bullish technical signals in a challenging market.</li>
<li>After a 3 year run from the COVID lows, Samsonite has confirmed a Bearish technical signal.</li>
<li>Hautai Securities hits an all time low and becomes a "Catch a Falling Knife" chart.</li>
</ul>


Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS have Bullish technical signals in a challenging market.
After a 3 year run from the COVID lows, Samsonite has confirmed a Bearish technical signal.
Hautai Securities hits an all time low and becomes a "Catch a Falling Knife" chart.


Technically Speaking: Breakouts and Breakdowns in HONG KONG (July 10)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The move from 80 index constituents to 100 could take most of next year (and possibly even the year after that) to manage turnover and add profitable companies.</li>
<li>Foreign companies will be eligible for inclusion in the index from the December rebalance. That makes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a> a high probability inclusion candidate.</li>
<li>We highlight 8 potential inclusions to the index with passive trading impact varying from 1.6-4.3 days of ADV. There are large shorts on some of the stocks.</li>
</ul>


The move from 80 index constituents to 100 could take most of next year (and possibly even the year after that) to manage turnover and add profitable companies.
Foreign companies will be eligible for inclusion in the index from the December rebalance. That makes Samsonite (1910 HK) a high probability inclusion candidate.
We highlight 8 potential inclusions to the index with passive trading impact varying from 1.6-4.3 days of ADV. There are large shorts on some of the stocks.


Hang Seng Index Rebalance Preview: Foreign Companies Eligible from December

<ul>
<li>The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> on Friday.</li>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.</li>
<li>Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.</li>
</ul>


The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) on Friday.
The review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.
Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

China

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes quality dairy products in China. The principal products are liquid milk products, ice cream, and other dairy products, such as milk powder. The Company markets its products under its primary MENGNIU core brand.

Want Want China Holdings Limited manufactures and trades rice crackers, snack food, beverages, and packing materials.  The Company also manufactures wheat, flour, and raw materials for the manufacture of snack foods.  Most of the company's production facilities are located in China and Taiwan.

Dali Foods Group Company Ltd. is a snack food and beverage company. The Company is actively expanding its products offering and distributes its products through retailers.

New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd develops, produces, and markets a variety of animal feeds The Company also operates a commercial tradingbusiness, produces packing materials, chemicals and fish oil, and provides consulting services.

Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corporation, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells instant noodles, baked goods, and beverages in China.

Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co., Ltd. develops, produces and sells liquor products. The Company operates in China.

Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. produces and markets distilled spirits and wine.

Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co., Ltd. operates in the brewery industry.  The Company's products include beer, spring water, beer raw materials, feeds, yeast, and other related products.

Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co, Ltd. (000729 CH)

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited produces and distributes beer products.  The Company markets its products throughout China and around the world under the Tsingtao Beer brand name.

Chongqing Brewery Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets beer products.  The Company also produces medical preparations and capsules.

PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk manufactures hand rolled and machine-rolled clove-blended cigarettes. The Company distributes its products in the domestic and international market. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops properties.

KT&G Corporation processes, produces, and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, manufactures ginseng products such as red ginseng tea and herbal medicines.  KT&G is also involved in real estate development of its former factory sites.

Godfrey Phillips India Limited manufactures and distributes cigarettes, smoking tobacco and cigars.  The Group's brands include Black & White Kingsize Filter, Four Square Kingsize Filter, Cavanders Navy Cut Regular, Red & White, Anand and Leader.  The Company also manufactures Virgin Gold and Philip's Gold cigarette tobacco.

PT Gudang Garam Tbk manufactures and distributes cigarettes and operates activities related to the cigarette industry. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the paper-related activities.

Vector Group Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes in the United States.  The Company is also involved in the real estate business through its subsidiary.

British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company Limited manufactures and sells cigarettes in Bangladesh. The company offers its products under the Benson & Hedges, John Player Gold Leaf, Pall Mall, Capstan, Star, Pilot, Hollywood, Derby, and Bristol brands. It also exports tobacco leafs. The company was formerly known as Bangladesh Tobacco Company Limited and changed its name to British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company Limited in 1998. British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company Limited was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Dhaka, Bangladesh. British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company Limited is a subsidiary of Raleigh Investment Co. Ltd.

British American Tobacco Bangl (BATBC BD)

Universal Corporation is an independent leaf tobacco merchant.  The Company has additional operations in agri-products and the distribution of lumber and building products.  Universal sells primarily flue-cured and burley tobaccos to manufacturers located throughout the world.

Eastern Tobacco produces cigarettes, cigars, pipe tobacco, cigarette rolling tobacco and water pipe tobacco.  The Company also produces related products including filter rods, tobacco flakes, paper packets  and printed materials.

VST Industries Ltd. manufactures and distributes cigarettes and tobacco products. The Company's cigarette brands include "Charminar Specials," "Shah-IDeccan," "Charms Virginia Filter Kings," "Vazir," "Qila" and "Ambassador." VST Industries sells its products in India and abroad.

Ceylon Tobacco Company PLC manufactures and markets cigarettes and smoking tobacco products.

Smoore International Holdings Limited offering vaping technology solutions with advanced research and development technology. The Company manufactures and produces closed system vaping devices, self branded open system vaping devices, vaping components, and other products. Smoore International Holdings markets its products throughout Hong Kong.

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Smoore International Holdings (6969 HK)

Smoore (6969 HK): Harsher E-Cigarette Law and Lower Growth Rate in 2H21

The new draft of the e-cigarette law will crack down the domestic market. The revenue growth rate plunged in 2H21. We set a downside of 27% and a...

Ming Lu

RLX Technology to Buyback 33% of The Free Float: Time To Reverse The Long Smoore/Short RLX Trade

RLX’s buyback of 33% of its free float could cause panic among short-sellers, possibly resulting in a second short squeeze in quick succession.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Technically Speaking: Breakouts and Breakdowns in HONG KONG (July 10)

Share prices of Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS had Bullish technical signals while Samsonite and Huatai Securities have...

David Mudd

Hang Seng Index Rebalance Preview: Foreign Companies Eligible from December

There are 8 trading days to the announcement of the December rebalance results. With foreign companies newly eligible, Samsonite is a high...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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