Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Korean stock market ranked #1 in net inflow of foreign funds among emerging Asian countries so far in 2024.</li>
<li>There has been a net inflow of US$19.4 billion into Korea this year, more than the inflow into China (US$4.9 billion), Taiwan (US$3.6 billion), and India (US$2.0 billion) combined. </li>
<li>Three major factors impacting higher foreign capital inflow into Korean stock market this year included Corporate Value Up program, turnaround of DRAM/semiconductor sector, and political uncertainties in China and India. </li>
</ul>


Korean stock market ranked #1 in net inflow of foreign funds among emerging Asian countries so far in 2024.
There has been a net inflow of US$19.4 billion into Korea this year, more than the inflow into China (US$4.9 billion), Taiwan (US$3.6 billion), and India (US$2.0 billion) combined. 
Three major factors impacting higher foreign capital inflow into Korean stock market this year included Corporate Value Up program, turnaround of DRAM/semiconductor sector, and political uncertainties in China and India. 


Korean Stock Market Ranks #1 in Net Inflow of Foreign Funds Among Emerging Asian Countries in 2024

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 3Q 2024.</li>
<li>Of the 38 pair trades, 21 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months, suggesting increased capital allocation to Korean holdcos relative to their opcos.</li>
<li>These pairs could generate trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal (Doosan Corp vs. Doosan Enerbility; Hyundai Mobis vs Hyundai Motor).</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 3Q 2024.
Of the 38 pair trades, 21 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months, suggesting increased capital allocation to Korean holdcos relative to their opcos.
These pairs could generate trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal (Doosan Corp vs. Doosan Enerbility; Hyundai Mobis vs Hyundai Motor).


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2024

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SK Square's market cap exceeds SK Networks' by over 10 times, qualifying this merger as small-scale. Thus, only SK Networks needs shareholder approval and grants appraisal rights solely to shareholders.</li>
<li>The current arbitrage spread for SK Networks' appraisal rights is 1.95%, and for the swap, it's 4.16%. These are nominal values excluding trading costs and taxes.</li>
<li>Today's SK Square and SK Networks prices reflect arbitrage spreads. Yesterday's 8% spread widened, focusing on narrowing appraisal rights and swap spreads, essential before next week's announcement.</li>
</ul>


SK Square's market cap exceeds SK Networks' by over 10 times, qualifying this merger as small-scale. Thus, only SK Networks needs shareholder approval and grants appraisal rights solely to shareholders.
The current arbitrage spread for SK Networks' appraisal rights is 1.95%, and for the swap, it's 4.16%. These are nominal values excluding trading costs and taxes.
Today's SK Square and SK Networks prices reflect arbitrage spreads. Yesterday's 8% spread widened, focusing on narrowing appraisal rights and swap spreads, essential before next week's announcement.


SK Square + SK Networks Merger Swap: A Guide to Pre-Merger Arb Spread Calculations

<ul>
<li>SK Group plans to merge SK Innovation and 90%-owned SK E&amp;S by month-end. Chosun Ilbo's report solidifies market confidence due to its credibility and likely intentional leak by SK Group.</li>
<li>Initially considered but deemed lower priority than SK IE Technology sale; SK Group opts for this alternative due to challenging market conditions for SKITE sale.</li>
<li>SK Innovation and SKIET rise with hopes of resolving liquidity issues and avoiding sacrifice. SK Inc is negatively impacted by concerns over valuation double counting from this merger.</li>
</ul>


SK Group plans to merge SK Innovation and 90%-owned SK E&amp;S by month-end. Chosun Ilbo's report solidifies market confidence due to its credibility and likely intentional leak by SK Group.
Initially considered but deemed lower priority than SK IE Technology sale; SK Group opts for this alternative due to challenging market conditions for SKITE sale.
SK Innovation and SKIET rise with hopes of resolving liquidity issues and avoiding sacrifice. SK Inc is negatively impacted by concerns over valuation double counting from this merger.


Digging into Chosun Ilbo's Report on SK Group's SK Innovation & SK E&S Merger Plans

<ul>
<li>On 12 June, SK Telecom (017670 KS) confirmed that its affiliate Sapeon plans to merge with its competitor Rebellions by end of this year.</li>
<li>Sapeon and Rebellions' largest global competitor is Nvidia. A key aim of the merger is to challenge Nvidia and try to take away its global dominance in AI chips.</li>
<li>If the combined Sapeon and Rebellion can take away just 1% market share resulting in 1% of Nvidia's market cap, this would suggest valuation of US$31 billion.</li>
</ul>


On 12 June, SK Telecom (017670 KS) confirmed that its affiliate Sapeon plans to merge with its competitor Rebellions by end of this year.
Sapeon and Rebellions' largest global competitor is Nvidia. A key aim of the merger is to challenge Nvidia and try to take away its global dominance in AI chips.
If the combined Sapeon and Rebellion can take away just 1% market share resulting in 1% of Nvidia's market cap, this would suggest valuation of US$31 billion.


Proposed Merger Between Rebellions and Sapeon - To Challenge Nvidia

South Korea

LG Corp. is a holding company, which operates subsidiaries including LG Electronics, LG Household & Health Care, LG Chem Ltd., and Dacom Corp. The Company's main business areas are electronics, chemicals, and household products manufacturing and telecommunications services.

Doosan Co., Ltd operates as a diversified manufacturing and service company. The Company conducts electronic components production, logistics equipment manufacturing, information technology consulting, and other businesses. Doosan provides services worldwide.

CJ Corp. is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, manufactures processed food products.  The subsidiaries' products include refined sugar, monosodium glutamate (MSG), condiment, wheat powder, flour, cooking oil, processed meats, and animal feed.

ALUKO Co., Ltd. manufactures window frames, balconies, and ventilators made of aluminum.  The Company provides various colors and types of aluminum window frames and sashes.  ALUKO also produces steel furniture.

Samsung Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. manufactures crude oil tankers, container vessels, bulk carriers, cruisers, and passenger ferries.  The Company also produces steel and bridge structures, and material handling equipment.  In addition, Samsung Heavy Industries provides civil engineering, architectural, and plant construction services.

Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. operates as an aircraft parts manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells aircraft gas turbine engine products, aircraft compressors, low pressure turbines, and other products. Hanwha Aerospace markets its products worldwide.

Posco International Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company exports and imports steel, cement, crude oil, heavy machinery, automobile parts, and textiles.  Daewoo also manufactures synthetic fabrics for footwear, garments, and car seats, and operates a department store in Masan.

Posco International Corporation (047050 KS)

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding and offshore company. The Company provides industrial plant engineering, special and naval shipbuilding, marine engine and machinery, industrial machinery and energy services. HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering markets its products worldwide.

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS)

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering

Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding and offshore company. The Company provides floating structure construction, steel wire drying, commercial vessels, specialty vessels, gas carrier, tanker, containership, ro ro, bulk carrier, submarine, warship, auxiliaries, cruise ships, and ferries manufacturing services. Hanwha Ocean also offers onshore plants services.

Hyundai Electric & Energy Systems (HE&E), which makes various electric equipment including transformers, switchgear, motors, low & medium voltage circuit breakers, power electronics, and power electronics & control systems.

Keppel Corporation Limited's core businesses are offshore and marine, infrastructure, property investment and development, telecommunications and transportation, energy, and engineering.

Sembcorp Industries Ltd provides utilities and integrated services for industrial sites such as power, gas, steam, water, wastewater treatment and other on-site services. The Company's businesses also include marine & offshore engineering and urban development comprising industrial parks and business, commercial and residential spaces.

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited is a multinational enterprise with a portfolio of businesses focused on the Asia-Pacific region. The Group's activities include financial services, supermarkets, consumer marketing, engineering and construction, automobile trading, insurance broking, property investment, and hotels.

DCC PLC is a sales, marketing, distribution and business support services Group. The Group operates in the following sectors; energy, IT & entertainment products, healthcare, environmental services and food & beverage. DCC's strategy is to grow a sustainable, diversified business.

Smiths Group plc is a global technology company.  The company delivers products and services for the threat & contraband detection, medical devices, energy and communications market worldwide.

Enka Insaat ve Sanayi AS provides construction and construction related services worldwide. The Company builds infrastructure, commercial projects and factories. The manufacturing subsidiaries produce construction materials, steel pipes, windows and hand tools. The Group also imports and distributes industrial machinery in Turkey.

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on motor vehicles, property investment and development, food retailing, health and beauty, home furnishings, engineering and construction, transport services, restaurants, luxury hotels, financial services, heavy equipment, mining, energy, and agribusiness.

Icahn Enterprises L.P., a master limited partnership, is a diversified holding company engaged in nine primary business segments: Automotive, Investment, Energy, Gaming, Railcar, Food Packaging, Metals, Real Estate and Home Fashion.

Seibu Holdings Inc. offers diversified operation. The Company through its subsidiary companies operates transportation, construction, hotel, leisure facilities, and real estate business. Seibu Holdings provides group enterprises strategy planning, operation management, asset management and supply, and business promotions.

Beijing Enterprises Holdings Ltd. is a diversified company.  The Company brews beer; distributes natural gas through pipelines; invests in, designs, constructs and operates water supply and wastewater treatment plants; operates toll roads; disposes of hazardous waste; and offers electronic payment systems.

SK Square Co., Ltd. operates as an investment company. The Company invests in semiconductors, information and communications technologies, and other industries. SK Square conducts businesses in South Korea.

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SK Square (402340 KS)

Korean Stock Market Ranks #1 in Net Inflow of Foreign Funds Among Emerging Asian Countries in 2024

Korean stock market ranked #1 in net inflow of foreign funds among emerging Asian countries so far in 2024. There has been a net inflow of US$19.4...

Douglas Kim

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2024

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in...

Douglas Kim

SK Square + SK Networks Merger Swap: A Guide to Pre-Merger Arb Spread Calculations

This post is a guide to pre-merger arb trading setups for merger swap events in the Korean local market, considering this potential merger...

Sanghyun Park

Digging into Chosun Ilbo's Report on SK Group's SK Innovation & SK E&S Merger Plans

This post investigates Chosun Ilbo's exclusive report on the SK Innovation and SK E&S merger plans, likely to be announced at SK Group's highest...

Sanghyun Park

Proposed Merger Between Rebellions and Sapeon - To Challenge Nvidia

On 12 June, SK Telecom confirmed that its affiliate Sapeon plans to merge with Rebellions by end of this year. A key aim of the merger is to take...

Douglas Kim

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