HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Vancocin/Ceclor/FPN are currently the “cash cow” for Edding, but they’re facing the challenges of generics, VBP and increasing competition. Their current market leading position may be lost in the future.</li>
<li>Edding seeks business transformation as its CSO model doesn’t work under domestic negative policies. But peak sales of three innovative drugs Vascepa/Mulpleta/EDP 125 may not reach the level of Vancocin/Ceclor.</li>
<li>Edding’s core advantage still lies in sales capabilities. Its R&amp;D capabilities have always been questioned. It’s unsure whether the market would give high valuation to a company without core competitiveness.</li>
</ul>


Vancocin/Ceclor/FPN are currently the “cash cow” for Edding, but they’re facing the challenges of generics, VBP and increasing competition. Their current market leading position may be lost in the future.
Edding seeks business transformation as its CSO model doesn’t work under domestic negative policies. But peak sales of three innovative drugs Vascepa/Mulpleta/EDP 125 may not reach the level of Vancocin/Ceclor.
Edding’s core advantage still lies in sales capabilities. Its R&amp;D capabilities have always been questioned. It’s unsure whether the market would give high valuation to a company without core competitiveness.


Pre-IPO Edding Group - CSO Model Is Hard to Sustain, but Business Transformation Faces Challenges

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the absence of significant decline in total pharmaceutical expenditure,the most simple logic tells us if some companies/varieties suffer loss in VBP, it inevitably means other companies benefit from it. </li>
<li>For innovative drugs, imported drugs have clear advantage over domestic drugs in both absolute and relative increments. But leading MNCs have been more impacted by VBP in recent years.</li>
<li>In this hundreds-of-billion-level payment transfer process, companies are actually competing to provide real clinical value, which is the key to fill the gap caused by VBP and restore companies’ growth.</li>
</ul>


In the absence of significant decline in total pharmaceutical expenditure,the most simple logic tells us if some companies/varieties suffer loss in VBP, it inevitably means other companies benefit from it. 
For innovative drugs, imported drugs have clear advantage over domestic drugs in both absolute and relative increments. But leading MNCs have been more impacted by VBP in recent years.
In this hundreds-of-billion-level payment transfer process, companies are actually competing to provide real clinical value, which is the key to fill the gap caused by VBP and restore companies’ growth.


China's VBP Policy for Pharmaceuticals – Misunderstandings, Real Impacts, and Outlook

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As the core candidate in Everest Medicines’s current pipeline, the peak sales of Nefecon could be significantly lower-than-expected, mainly due to low diagnostic rate, limited applicable patient population, high price, competition from latecomers.</li>
<li>For the rest late-stage candidates, such as Etrasimod, Eravacycline, Taniborbactam, their peak sales would all be lower than that of Nefecon. So, they are unable to bring enough imagination space.</li>
<li>Based on license-in mode, cost of Everest Medicines is higher than independent-R&amp;D companies. Whether products would be returned to licensors again because of weak sales prospects is also uncertain factor.</li>
</ul>


As the core candidate in Everest Medicines’s current pipeline, the peak sales of Nefecon could be significantly lower-than-expected, mainly due to low diagnostic rate, limited applicable patient population, high price, competition from latecomers.
For the rest late-stage candidates, such as Etrasimod, Eravacycline, Taniborbactam, their peak sales would all be lower than that of Nefecon. So, they are unable to bring enough imagination space.
Based on license-in mode, cost of Everest Medicines is higher than independent-R&amp;D companies. Whether products would be returned to licensors again because of weak sales prospects is also uncertain factor.


Everest Medicines (1952.HK) - To Take off Again or to Fall Instead?

HighTide Therapeutics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The mechanism of NASH has not yet been accurately determined. Among the major players, FDA has postponed the approval of OCA (FXR) for NASH. THR-β is currently the most promising. </li>
<li>HighTide claims that HTD1801 is able to achieve the goal of improving effectiveness and reducing toxicity. However, HTD1801 hasn’t reached pathological endpoints. We’ll have to wait for future clinical data.</li>
<li>This Company actually has high risk due to cash shortage and uncertain R&amp;D progress, which could lead to lower-than-expected stock price performance. We are conservative about HighTide based on analysis.</li>
</ul>


The mechanism of NASH has not yet been accurately determined. Among the major players, FDA has postponed the approval of OCA (FXR) for NASH. THR-β is currently the most promising. 
HighTide claims that HTD1801 is able to achieve the goal of improving effectiveness and reducing toxicity. However, HTD1801 hasn’t reached pathological endpoints. We’ll have to wait for future clinical data.
This Company actually has high risk due to cash shortage and uncertain R&amp;D progress, which could lead to lower-than-expected stock price performance. We are conservative about HighTide based on analysis.


Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics - Its Outlook in NASH Field Is Not Optimistic, with High Risks

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in September 2023.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I expect two ADDs and two DELs for HSCEI in the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I estimate one-way flow to be US$276mn. Only the two ADDs and two DELs involved in the index changes are likely to have more than one day to trade. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in September 2023.
Based on the latest available data, I expect two ADDs and two DELs for HSCEI in the September 2023 Rebalance.
I estimate one-way flow to be US$276mn. Only the two ADDs and two DELs involved in the index changes are likely to have more than one day to trade. 


Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way

Hong Kong

Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited, through its subsidiaries, researches, develops, produces, and sells biopharmaceutical products for the medical treatment of ophthalmia, as well as modernized Chinese medicine and chemical medicine for the treatment of hepatitis.

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Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)

Pre-IPO Edding Group - CSO Model Is Hard to Sustain, but Business Transformation Faces Challenges

As once a leading CSO company in China, Edding’s core advantage still lies in sales capabilities. But changes in domestic policy/business...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China's VBP Policy for Pharmaceuticals – Misunderstandings, Real Impacts, and Outlook

The money saved in some drugs due to VBP will help expand the sales of other drugs,which we call “payment transfer”.Before being pessimistic about...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Everest Medicines (1952.HK) - To Take off Again or to Fall Instead?

Great personnel changes had taken place in Everest Medicines. However, peak sales of core products could be significantly lower than expected. So,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics - Its Outlook in NASH Field Is Not Optimistic, with High Risks

Intercept's failure to obtain FDA approval for NASH drug may cast shadow on HighTide's core product outlook.HighTide's valuation performance is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way

I see BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) and Trip.com (9961 HK) as ADDs and Country Garden Services (6098 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) as DELs.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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