Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Last month our sentiment indicators pointed to potential over-exuberance in copper and platinum, early signs of improvement in corn, and an accelerating slide in crude</li>
<li>Copper sentiment has since pulled back to neutral territory, but the magnitude of the pullback was limited as momentum readings remained mildly positive throughout the month; other base metals saw sentiment pull back to a lesser extent, even as the nickel price underperformed on TSLA news flow</li>
<li>Corn has seen improvement in sentiment driven by news of better ethanol margins and potential crop damage in Northeast China driving greater US export demand</li>
<li>Precious metals sentiment collapsed, with silver sentiment dipping below -2x STDEVs to the downside and gold hitting -1.3x STDEVs this week</li>
<li>Crude sentiment attempted to stabilize in the past 2 weeks, but renewed fears of mobility restrictions are surfacing in recent days as negative catalysts in our news attribution; we also identify a very high correlation between crude sentiment and our global foot traffic indicator</li>
<li>From a broader macro perspective, we continue to see pressure on inflation expectations in our text-mined diffusion indices; but since the DXY hit a short-term high of 94.8 on 9/25, we have seen a slight lift in 5-yr TIPS breakevens which is providing some relief to the complex</li>
<li>Our main takeaway this month is the resilience of palladium an copper to recent swings in sentiment, unexpected USD strength and elevated vol in the complex; both commodities have behaved well in the face of considerable headwinds and potentially reflect a steadier underlying recovery in manufacturing, construction and autos</li>
<li>Overall, less than half of our commodity sentiment indicators are in positive territory, compared with the vast majority last month</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Last month our sentiment indicators pointed to potential over-exuberance in copper and platinum, early signs of improvement in corn, and an accelerating slide in crude
Copper sentiment has since pulled back to neutral territory, but the magnitude of the pullback was limited as momentum readings remained mildly positive throughout the month; other base metals saw sentiment pull back to a lesser extent, even as the nickel price underperformed on TSLA news flow
Corn has seen improvement in sentiment driven by news of better ethanol margins and potential crop damage in Northeast China driving greater US export demand
Precious metals sentiment collapsed, with silver sentiment dipping below -2x STDEVs to the downside and gold hitting -1.3x STDEVs this week
Crude sentiment attempted to stabilize in the past 2 weeks, but renewed fears of mobility restrictions are surfacing in recent days as negative catalysts in our news attribution; we also identify a very high correlation between crude sentiment and our global foot traffic indicator
From a broader macro perspective, we continue to see pressure on inflation expectations in our text-mined diffusion indices; but since the DXY hit a short-term high of 94.8 on 9/25, we have seen a slight lift in 5-yr TIPS breakevens which is providing some relief to the complex
Our main takeaway this month is the resilience of palladium an copper to recent swings in sentiment, unexpected USD strength and elevated vol in the complex; both commodities have behaved well in the face of considerable headwinds and potentially reflect a steadier underlying recovery in manufacturing, construction and autos
Overall, less than half of our commodity sentiment indicators are in positive territory, compared with the vast majority last month
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Indicators: October Commodity Sentiment - Base Neutral, Precious Weak, Palladium & Corn Positive

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Last week we highlighted a downward shift in US inflation expectations, and our diffusion index of inflationary vs. deflationary expressions continues to soften (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-snapshot-cross-currents-in-the-us-rental-market-hint-at-pausing-inflation-expectations" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43259" rel="noopener">TMI Snapshot:  Cross-Currents In The US Rental Market Hint At Pausing Inflation Expectations)</a>
</li>
<li>We believe this shift is largely responsible for unwelcome USD strength and recent pressures on precious metals as well as the overall commodity complex (as noted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-indicators-gold-sentiment-seeking-catalysts-following-latest-leg-up-on-us-benefit-expiration" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43356" rel="noopener">TMI Indicators: Gold Sentiment Seeking Catalysts Following Latest Leg Up On US Benefit Expiration</a>)</li>
<li>While our inflation expectations note focused on emerging pressures in the US rental market and their impact on TIPS inflation breakevens, we must acknowledge that the psychology behind the emerging consensus inflationary mindset went into overdrive when extraordinary open-ended QE was perceived to be augmented by continued massive fiscal support and accelerated COVID-19 vaccine news flow</li>
<li>Our text mining sees an unprecedented spike in US political divisions coinciding with a sharp step down in fiscal stimulus expectations, as well as lowered expectations on the near-term availability of a COVID-19 vaccine</li>
<li>With two pillars of the emerging inflationary mindset now broken, the underlying narrative is seeing significant near-term challenges</li>
<li>As a potential post-election silver lining, our text mining sees a shift in perceptions of a Biden win from potentially disinflationary to inflationary (as Biden tax implications are now seen as less onerous and infrastructure investment potentially larger)</li>
<li>As long as uncertainty on post-election outcomes lingers, we suspect disinflationary pressures drive elevated vol, a stronger USD, continued pullback in precious metals &amp; the broader commodities complex, and a near-term shift away from the incipient cyclical/value rotations</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Last week we highlighted a downward shift in US inflation expectations, and our diffusion index of inflationary vs. deflationary expressions continues to soften (see TMI Snapshot:  Cross-Currents In The US Rental Market Hint At Pausing Inflation Expectations)

We believe this shift is largely responsible for unwelcome USD strength and recent pressures on precious metals as well as the overall commodity complex (as noted in TMI Indicators: Gold Sentiment Seeking Catalysts Following Latest Leg Up On US Benefit Expiration)
While our inflation expectations note focused on emerging pressures in the US rental market and their impact on TIPS inflation breakevens, we must acknowledge that the psychology behind the emerging consensus inflationary mindset went into overdrive when extraordinary open-ended QE was perceived to be augmented by continued massive fiscal support and accelerated COVID-19 vaccine news flow
Our text mining sees an unprecedented spike in US political divisions coinciding with a sharp step down in fiscal stimulus expectations, as well as lowered expectations on the near-term availability of a COVID-19 vaccine
With two pillars of the emerging inflationary mindset now broken, the underlying narrative is seeing significant near-term challenges
As a potential post-election silver lining, our text mining sees a shift in perceptions of a Biden win from potentially disinflationary to inflationary (as Biden tax implications are now seen as less onerous and infrastructure investment potentially larger)
As long as uncertainty on post-election outcomes lingers, we suspect disinflationary pressures drive elevated vol, a stronger USD, continued pullback in precious metals &amp; the broader commodities complex, and a near-term shift away from the incipient cyclical/value rotations
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshots:  More Signs Of Pressure on Inflation Expectations, USD Upside, And A Silver Lining

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

WTI oil bear plunge confirms our bear stance and the weak demand side of the equation. We outline fresh resistance points to re cycle short exposure from the original short at 43.35. The impulsive nature of the decline in oil does warn of slowing growth into 2021.Gold is gearing up for a fresh bull cycle out of the bull triangle outlined of late with C wave risk to 1,850. The longer we trade sideways, the odds increase for a break higher out of the flat range.USD rise would increase odds of a C wave slip to gold 1,850 and silver  23.50.With or without a c-wave pullback, gold and silver are setting up for a major rally cycle to new highs that should be linked to equity volatility, inflation expectations and abundant liquidity. This is a macro theme that stands out.

WTI oil bear plunge confirms our bear stance and the weak demand side of the equation. We outline fresh resistance points to re cycle short exposure from the original short at 43.35. The impulsive nature of the decline in oil does warn of slowing growth into 2021.Gold is gearing up for a fresh bull cycle out of the bull triangle outlined of late with C wave risk to 1,850. The longer we trade sideways, the odds increase for a break higher out of the flat range.USD rise would increase odds of a C wave slip to gold 1,850 and silver  23.50.With or without a c-wave pullback, gold and silver are setting up for a major rally cycle to new highs that should be linked to equity volatility, inflation expectations and abundant liquidity. This is a macro theme that stands out.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> met the immediate resistance and reduce zone at 1,980-2,000 and we are keen to add back long exposure near outlined supports. Silver may very well be forming a bullish flat range to stage a bigger rise to the next bull objective at 34 after meeting the 29 tactical target.Dual pronged risk for metals, stems from an SPX break above 3,400 (following the NDX lead above 11,300) and USD bull energy brewing in EM and Asia that typically precedes an equity risk off cycle and would be gold/safe have supportive assuming metals can shrug off a tactical dollar rise.Palladium is another interesting set up with a bull triangle maturing. Risk of a truncated C wave slip to 2,000 support if immediate support at 1,920 breaks. Recent rise did meet out tactical target at 2,300.

Gold (GOLD COMDTY) met the immediate resistance and reduce zone at 1,980-2,000 and we are keen to add back long exposure near outlined supports. Silver may very well be forming a bullish flat range to stage a bigger rise to the next bull objective at 34 after meeting the 29 tactical target.Dual pronged risk for metals, stems from an SPX break above 3,400 (following the NDX lead above 11,300) and USD bull energy brewing in EM and Asia that typically precedes an equity risk off cycle and would be gold/safe have supportive assuming metals can shrug off a tactical dollar rise.Palladium is another interesting set up with a bull triangle maturing. Risk of a truncated C wave slip to 2,000 support if immediate support at 1,920 breaks. Recent rise did meet out tactical target at 2,300.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> was frothy near 2,050 and a pullback to 1,950 was the call which did not hold. We remain macro bullish gold but a shakeout linked to a peak risk cycle was overdue. Current levels (1,870/80) will induce a reaction rise and then we range to base. Macro - Note the lack of RSI or MACD bear divergence which means the trend is still higher and this is a correction within the bigger macro trend. RSI is at 40-50 support and set for a rally. Next projection at 2,115 and 2,230.Silver 23 zone will induce a tactical swing back up.

Gold (GOLD COMDTY) was frothy near 2,050 and a pullback to 1,950 was the call which did not hold. We remain macro bullish gold but a shakeout linked to a peak risk cycle was overdue. Current levels (1,870/80) will induce a reaction rise and then we range to base. Macro - Note the lack of RSI or MACD bear divergence which means the trend is still higher and this is a correction within the bigger macro trend. RSI is at 40-50 support and set for a rally. Next projection at 2,115 and 2,230.Silver 23 zone will induce a tactical swing back up.

United States

Silver is the metallic element with the atomic number 47. Its symbol is Ag, from the Latin argentum, derived from the Greek ὰργὀς (literally "shiny" or "white"), and ultimately from a Proto-Indo-European language root reconstructed as *h₂erǵ-, "grey" or "shining". A soft, white, lustrous transition metal, it exhibits the highest electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and reflectivity of any metal. The metal is found in the Earth's crust in the pure, free elemental form ("native silver"), as an alloy with gold and other metals, and in minerals such as argentite and chlorargyrite. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, gold, lead, and zinc refining.

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Silver (SILVER COMDTY)

TMI Indicators: October Commodity Sentiment - Base Neutral, Precious Weak, Palladium & Corn Positive

Last month our sentiment indicators pointed to potential over-exu

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshots: More Signs Of Pressure on Inflation Expectations, USD Upside, And A Silver Lining

Last week we highlighted

Elan Gore

Short Oil/Long Gold Will Reward

WTI oil bear plunge confirms our bear stance and the weak demand side of the equation. We outline fresh resistance points to re cycle short...

Thomas Schroeder

Gold and Silver Load up Levels

Gold (GOLD COMDTY) met the immediate resistance and reduce zone at 1,980-2,000 and we are keen to add back long exposure near outlined supports....

Thomas Schroeder

Gold Fresh Buy Support

Gold (GOLD COMDTY) was frothy near 2,050 and a pullback to 1,950 was the call which did not hold. We remain macro bullish gold but a shakeout...

Thomas Schroeder

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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