Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Negative roll yield killing BCOM returns, even as spot has performed OK</li><li>We need to see some serious stimulus out of China for broad commodities to rally</li><li>Macro data turning bullish in shipping and the Container output from Shanghai is showing signs of a STRONG rebound</li></ul>

Negative roll yield killing BCOM returns, even as spot has performed OKWe need to see some serious stimulus out of China for broad commodities to rallyMacro data turning bullish in shipping and the Container output from Shanghai is showing signs of a STRONG rebound

Commodity & Shipping Watch: Time to get back into the shipping bets?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change</li>
<li>In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.</li>
<li>Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates</li>
</ul>


The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change
In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.
Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates


Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>CTA Positioning Update According to UBS’ biweekly CTA momentum study, CTAs bought oil and sold precious metals in size in February.</li><li>The investment bank expects ⅔ of those flows to reverse in the next two weeks.</li><li>CTA’s have meanwhile built a decent short position in agriculturals, and flows should remain negative there.</li></ul>

CTA Positioning Update According to UBS’ biweekly CTA momentum study, CTAs bought oil and sold precious metals in size in February.The investment bank expects ⅔ of those flows to reverse in the next two weeks.CTA’s have meanwhile built a decent short position in agriculturals, and flows should remain negative there.

Commodity Hedge Fund Positioning & Red Sea Update

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial.</li><li>The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a certain extent been out of sync with the business cycle for a while.</li><li>The yield curve inverted during the summer of 2022, but we are yet to see a recession in the US economy, which is a bit out of the ordinary given the typical validity of the yield curve inversion signal.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial.The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a certain extent been out of sync with the business cycle for a while.The yield curve inverted during the summer of 2022, but we are yet to see a recession in the US economy, which is a bit out of the ordinary given the typical validity of the yield curve inversion signal.

Steno Signals #89: Major Twist to QE Upcoming?

<ul><li>As per the International Cocoa Organization, there was a deficit of 216kt in the global market during 2021/22 and 99kt in 2022/23.</li><li>With a significant decline in West African output in the ongoing 2023/24 season, it is anticipated that the market will experience a substantial third deficit, nearing 400kt.</li><li>This would result in stocks reaching their lowest levels in at least a decade.</li></ul>

As per the International Cocoa Organization, there was a deficit of 216kt in the global market during 2021/22 and 99kt in 2022/23.With a significant decline in West African output in the ongoing 2023/24 season, it is anticipated that the market will experience a substantial third deficit, nearing 400kt.This would result in stocks reaching their lowest levels in at least a decade.

United States

Silver is the metallic element with the atomic number 47. Its symbol is Ag, from the Latin argentum, derived from the Greek ὰργὀς (literally "shiny" or "white"), and ultimately from a Proto-Indo-European language root reconstructed as *h₂erǵ-, "grey" or "shining". A soft, white, lustrous transition metal, it exhibits the highest electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and reflectivity of any metal. The metal is found in the Earth's crust in the pure, free elemental form ("native silver"), as an alloy with gold and other metals, and in minerals such as argentite and chlorargyrite. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, gold, lead, and zinc refining.

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Silver (SILVER COMDTY)

Commodity & Shipping Watch: Time to get back into the shipping bets?

Negative roll yield killing BCOM returns, even as spot has performed OKWe need to see some serious stimulus out of China for broad...

Steno Research

Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

Gold $GLD $GC_F Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as $DXY and Treasury Yields Roll Over $TNX $TYX; Seeing More Risk-On Signals, Not Less....

Vermilion Research

Commodity Hedge Fund Positioning & Red Sea Update

CTA Positioning Update According to UBS’ biweekly CTA momentum study, CTAs bought oil and sold precious metals in size in February.

The Commodity Report

Steno Signals #89: Major Twist to QE Upcoming?

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial. The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a...

Steno Research

Surging Soft Commodities

With a significant decline in West African output in the ongoing 2023/24 season, it is anticipated that the market will experience a substantial...

The Commodity Report

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