IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qilu-expressway-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27431:1" rel="noopener">Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576 HK)</a> is an expressway operator with the concession rights to construct and operate the Jihe Expressway, the Deshang Expressway and the Shennan Expressway. Revenue is derived primarily from tolls collected from users of the expressways. Qilu listed its H-shares on 19 July 2018 at HK$2.50 per H-share to raise net proceeds of HK$1,172.12 million ($151 million). </p><p>Due to the completion of the merger by absorption of Qilu Transportation by Shandong Hi-Speed Group on 16 November 2020, Shandong Hi-Speed Group and Shandong Hi-Speed Investment owned 38.93% and 5.19% of the outstanding shares. Subsequently, public shareholders accounted for 19.81% of the outstanding shares, which falls below the minimum public float requirement. To date, Shandong Hi-Speed Group has failed to address the minimum public float requirement by its fulfilling its plan to dispose of its H-shares to independent third parties.</p><p>Today, Qilu entered a trading halt pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Subsequently, Qilu disclosed that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7178:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi Speed Co Ltd A (600350 CH)</a> intends to acquire the 778.5 million domestic shares (86.50% of domestic shares, 38.93% of outstanding shares) held by Shandong Hi-Speed Group. Post-completion, Qilu’s direct controlling shareholder will be changed from Shandong Hi-Speed Group to Shandong Hi-Speed which may trigger a mandatory general offer for all the shares under Rule 26.1 of the Takeovers code, unless it is granted a waiver from the Executive. Notably, Shandong Hi-Speed and Shandong Hi-Speed Group will jointly seek a waiver from the Executive.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>We note that on 20 August 2020, Shandong Hi-Speed Group was granted a waiver from a mandatory general offer by the Executive in relation to the merger by absorption of Qilu Transportation by Shandong Hi-Speed Group. We think that the Executive will grant a similar waiver for the proposed share acquisition. In combination with ongoing challenges to satisfy the minimum public float requirement, we would not chase the shares. </p></div>

Qilu Expressway Co Ltd (1576 HK) is an expressway operator with the concession rights to construct and operate the Jihe Expressway, the Deshang Expressway and the Shennan Expressway. Revenue is derived primarily from tolls collected from users of the expressways. Qilu listed its H-shares on 19 July 2018 at HK$2.50 per H-share to raise net proceeds of HK$1,172.12 million ($151 million). Due to the completion of the merger by absorption of Qilu Transportation by Shandong Hi-Speed Group on 16 November 2020, Shandong Hi-Speed Group and Shandong Hi-Speed Investment owned 38.93% and 5.19% of the outstanding shares. Subsequently, public shareholders accounted for 19.81% of the outstanding shares, which falls below the minimum public float requirement. To date, Shandong Hi-Speed Group has failed to address the minimum public float requirement by its fulfilling its plan to dispose of its H-shares to independent third parties.Today, Qilu entered a trading halt pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Subsequently, Qilu disclosed that Shandong Hi Speed Co Ltd A (600350 CH) intends to acquire the 778.5 million domestic shares (86.50% of domestic shares, 38.93% of outstanding shares) held by Shandong Hi-Speed Group. Post-completion, Qilu’s direct controlling shareholder will be changed from Shandong Hi-Speed Group to Shandong Hi-Speed which may trigger a mandatory general offer for all the shares under Rule 26.1 of the Takeovers code, unless it is granted a waiver from the Executive. Notably, Shandong Hi-Speed and Shandong Hi-Speed Group will jointly seek a waiver from the Executive.We note that on 20 August 2020, Shandong Hi-Speed Group was granted a waiver from a mandatory general offer by the Executive in relation to the merger by absorption of Qilu Transportation by Shandong Hi-Speed Group. We think that the Executive will grant a similar waiver for the proposed share acquisition. In combination with ongoing challenges to satisfy the minimum public float requirement, we would not chase the shares. 

Qilu Expressway’s Largest Shareholder Seeks Another MGO Waiver

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Zhejiang Expressway Co H / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2178:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK)</a>'s (ZJEC) subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zheshang-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29981:1" rel="noopener">Zheshang Securities Co Ltd (601878 CH)</a> pre-announced a set of solid FY20 result on 26 Jan. With the current strength of the A-share market, we believe this business will add to the recovery of toll road business in FY21, driving encouraging momentum for ZJEC.</p><p>Focusing back to the core toll road business, both traffic and toll revenue are showing positive YoY growth in Dec 2020, suggesting good recovery pace. ZJEC is also progressing ahead with the plan to list the toll collection rights of Hanghui Expressway as a public infrastructure REIT. We think these factors are important catalysts for ZJEC in this year. Its 5.9x PER and 0.86x P/B for 12-month forward are undemanding and its ROE vs. P/B is also inexpensive in the sector.  </p>

Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK)'s (ZJEC) subsidiary Zheshang Securities Co Ltd (601878 CH) pre-announced a set of solid FY20 result on 26 Jan. With the current strength of the A-share market, we believe this business will add to the recovery of toll road business in FY21, driving encouraging momentum for ZJEC.Focusing back to the core toll road business, both traffic and toll revenue are showing positive YoY growth in Dec 2020, suggesting good recovery pace. ZJEC is also progressing ahead with the plan to list the toll collection rights of Hanghui Expressway as a public infrastructure REIT. We think these factors are important catalysts for ZJEC in this year. Its 5.9x PER and 0.86x P/B for 12-month forward are undemanding and its ROE vs. P/B is also inexpensive in the sector.  

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Gaining from Both Growth and Stable Business Exposures

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<p>2020 has been a bumpy journey for Chinese toll roads. China's State Council first increased the toll-free period over the Chinese New Year to 16 days, up from seven days in a normal year. This was followed by a directive from the Ministry of Transport such that charges for using the toll roads would be waived for users from the 17 February until a later date - an exemption which was finally lifted on the 6 May.</p><p>The sector was already being scrutinized after an ETC (E-Toll discount) policy was introduced in July of last year; and a truck toll charge implemented on the 1 January of this year, with respect to toll-by-weight compared to toll-by-vehicle.</p><p>Collectively, yield-starved investors have questioned the defensiveness of the sector. Shares are off 22% on average YTD, versus 12% for the HSI.</p><h2>The New News</h2><p>On the 30 April, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly <a href="http://www.csrc.gov.cn/pub/zjhpublic/zjh/202004/t20200430_374847.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> (Chinese-only) a new pilot for Chinese infrastructure real estate investment trusts (or C-REITs), which are ostensibly a mechanism to fund infrastructure projects such highways and airports; and only for such infrastructure which has been operational for three years.  </p><p>Details are still to be fully fleshed out, not least how China's complex tax regime will be addressed. But it is worth exploring which toll road companies <em>may</em> be best suited to being taken private and repackaged as a REIT.</p><hr><div class="content-highlight">
<h2>What's Original?</h2>
<p>The CSRC and NDRC's announcement of a pilot program for public infrastructure REITs opens the door for the potential restructuring of listed toll road companies.</p>
<p>This in-depth insight canvasses the key Chinese toll road operators listed in Hong Kong, and assesses which companies may be targeted for acquisition, from both a financial and regulatory perspective, to spearhead this new policy.</p>
</div>

2020 has been a bumpy journey for Chinese toll roads. China's State Council first increased the toll-free period over the Chinese New Year to 16 days, up from seven days in a normal year. This was followed by a directive from the Ministry of Transport such that charges for using the toll roads would be waived for users from the 17 February until a later date - an exemption which was finally lifted on the 6 May.The sector was already being scrutinized after an ETC (E-Toll discount) policy was introduced in July of last year; and a truck toll charge implemented on the 1 January of this year, with respect to toll-by-weight compared to toll-by-vehicle.Collectively, yield-starved investors have questioned the defensiveness of the sector. Shares are off 22% on average YTD, versus 12% for the HSI.The New NewsOn the 30 April, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly announced (Chinese-only) a new pilot for Chinese infrastructure real estate investment trusts (or C-REITs), which are ostensibly a mechanism to fund infrastructure projects such highways and airports; and only for such infrastructure which has been operational for three years.  Details are still to be fully fleshed out, not least how China's complex tax regime will be addressed. But it is worth exploring which toll road companies may be best suited to being taken private and repackaged as a REIT.
What's Original?
The CSRC and NDRC's announcement of a pilot program for public infrastructure REITs opens the door for the potential restructuring of listed toll road companies.
This in-depth insight canvasses the key Chinese toll road operators listed in Hong Kong, and assesses which companies may be targeted for acquisition, from both a financial and regulatory perspective, to spearhead this new policy.


Chinese Expressways: A Step In The REIT Direction

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The National Development and Reform Commission of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released a <a href="http://www.csrc.gov.cn/newsite/zjhxwfb/xwdd/202004/t20200430_374845.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">notice</a> in April on establishing a pilot program to promote Infrastructure Real Estate Investment Trust Funds (REITs).</p><p>The focus will be on supporting key areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Economic Belt, Xiong'an New Area, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and The Great Bay Area, Hainan and the Yangtze River Delta and on industries such as warehousing logistics, toll roads and other transportation facilities, water and electrical heating and other municipal projects, urban sewage waste treatment, solid waste and waste treatment and other pollution control projects.</p><p>In this Insight, following on from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/osbert-tang-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3879" rel="noopener">Osbert Tang, CFA</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-infrastructure-reits-first-look-on-h-share-toll-road-sector" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Insight</a>, we put together a tradeable basket on toll road names listed in Hong Kong and China.</p>

The National Development and Reform Commission of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released a notice in April on establishing a pilot program to promote Infrastructure Real Estate Investment Trust Funds (REITs).The focus will be on supporting key areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Economic Belt, Xiong'an New Area, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and The Great Bay Area, Hainan and the Yangtze River Delta and on industries such as warehousing logistics, toll roads and other transportation facilities, water and electrical heating and other municipal projects, urban sewage waste treatment, solid waste and waste treatment and other pollution control projects.In this Insight, following on from Osbert Tang, CFA's Insight, we put together a tradeable basket on toll road names listed in Hong Kong and China.

China Infrastructure REITs: Toll Road Baskets on H-Shares and A-Shares

<p>Chinese government's promotion of public infrastructure REITs should benefit many different infrastructure sectors. We first look at the H-share toll road companies and believe REITs can benefit them by: 1.) narrowing the discount to book value and NAV that many of them are currently trading on, and 2.) allowing them to recycle their projects and realise cash inflow for either reducing their debt level or funding of investment in new projects.</p><p>Over the medium term, we expect REIT program to narrow the underperformance of H-share toll road against the HSCEI. In our view, the H-share toll road companies that will realise the best benefits from infrastructure REIT push are in the following order: 1.) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15375:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Expressway Co H (107 HK)</a>, 2.) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2178:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK)</a>, 3.) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2875:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Expressway Co H (548 HK)</a>, 4.) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-express-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9956:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Express Co Ltd H (177 HK)</a> and 5.) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-expressway-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5236:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Expressway Co Ltd H (995 HK)</a>.</p>

Chinese government's promotion of public infrastructure REITs should benefit many different infrastructure sectors. We first look at the H-share toll road companies and believe REITs can benefit them by: 1.) narrowing the discount to book value and NAV that many of them are currently trading on, and 2.) allowing them to recycle their projects and realise cash inflow for either reducing their debt level or funding of investment in new projects.Over the medium term, we expect REIT program to narrow the underperformance of H-share toll road against the HSCEI. In our view, the H-share toll road companies that will realise the best benefits from infrastructure REIT push are in the following order: 1.) Sichuan Expressway Co H (107 HK), 2.) Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK), 3.) Shenzhen Expressway Co H (548 HK), 4.) Jiangsu Express Co Ltd H (177 HK) and 5.) Anhui Expressway Co Ltd H (995 HK).

China Infrastructure REITs: First Look on H-Share Toll Road Sector

China

Sichuan Expressway Company Limited develops, invests in, and operates infrastructure projects including toll roads, bridges, tunnels, and ancillary facilities.

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Sichuan Expressway Co H (107 HK)

Qilu Expressway’s Largest Shareholder Seeks Another MGO Waiver

We think that the Executive will grant a similar waiver for the proposed share acquisition. Along with the challenges to satisfy the minimum public...

Arun George

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Gaining from Both Growth and Stable Business Exposures

Sustained toll revenue recovery, further strength at Zheshang Securities and possible REIT issuance of Hanghui Expressway are potential drivers in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chinese Expressways: A Step In The REIT Direction

2020 has been a bumpy journey for Chinese toll roads. China's State Council first increased the toll-free period over the Chinese New Year to 16...

David Blennerhassett

China Infrastructure REITs: Toll Road Baskets on H-Shares and A-Shares

The National Development and Reform Commission of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released a notice in April on establishing a...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Qilu Expressway’s Largest Shareholder Seeks Another MGO Waiver

We think that the Executive will grant a similar waiver for the proposed share acquisition. Along with the challenges to satisfy the minimum public...

Arun George

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Gaining from Both Growth and Stable Business Exposures

Sustained toll revenue recovery, further strength at Zheshang Securities and possible REIT issuance of Hanghui Expressway are potential drivers in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chinese Expressways: A Step In The REIT Direction

2020 has been a bumpy journey for Chinese toll roads. China's State Council first increased the toll-free period over the Chinese New Year to 16...

David Blennerhassett

China Infrastructure REITs: Toll Road Baskets on H-Shares and A-Shares

The National Development and Reform Commission of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released a notice in April on establishing a...

Brian Freitas

China Infrastructure REITs: First Look on H-Share Toll Road Sector

Chinese government's promotion of public infrastructure REITs should benefit many different infrastructure sectors. We first look at the H-share...

Osbert Tang, CFA