Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> is/was my High Conviction call for 2022. </li>
<li>SBI went to 47.77% in the Tender and is higher as Shinsei has bought back stock. Shinsei has more to go and could get funkier to buy back more.</li>
<li>8 February is the EGM to approve a new board and explicit SBI control. Delisting expectations will rise after that, but practically it will take time.</li>
</ul>



Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is/was my High Conviction call for 2022. 
SBI went to 47.77% in the Tender and is higher as Shinsei has bought back stock. Shinsei has more to go and could get funkier to buy back more.
8 February is the EGM to approve a new board and explicit SBI control. Delisting expectations will rise after that, but practically it will take time.


2022 High Conviction - Shinsei Bank Update

<ul>
<li>Today the TSE announced its long-awaited segmentation of the 3,777 stocks listed on the five major venues, and where they will move on 4 April 2022. </li>
<li>TSE1 represented just under 98% of Japan's float market cap as of today's close. As some TSE1 members will move to TSE Standard, TSE Prime will represent 97+%. </li>
<li>There are tiny changes to TOPIX because of the moves - roughly 3bp of flow per quarter starting Oct 2022. The FFW Model Revision will be far more interesting.</li>
</ul>


Today the TSE announced its long-awaited segmentation of the 3,777 stocks listed on the five major venues, and where they will move on 4 April 2022. 
TSE1 represented just under 98% of Japan's float market cap as of today's close. As some TSE1 members will move to TSE Standard, TSE Prime will represent 97+%. 
There are tiny changes to TOPIX because of the moves - roughly 3bp of flow per quarter starting Oct 2022. The FFW Model Revision will be far more interesting.


TSE Announces Market Structure Revisions: Still Much Ado About Nothing

<ul>
<li>The TSE will move to a new cash equity market structure on 4 April 2022. There will be three new sections: TSE Prime, TSE Standard, and TSE Growth.</li>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team in July 2021 <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210705E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a change to the Nikkei 225 Average Guidebook language which said constituents had to be members of TSE Prime going forward.  </li>
<li>At least one Nikkei 225 name and possibly two are headed for TSE Standard when the TSE makes its announcement on 11 January 2022. Suggested treatments are discussed.</li>
</ul>


The TSE will move to a new cash equity market structure on 4 April 2022. There will be three new sections: TSE Prime, TSE Standard, and TSE Growth.
The Nikkei Index Team in July 2021 announced a change to the Nikkei 225 Average Guidebook language which said constituents had to be members of TSE Prime going forward.  
At least one Nikkei 225 name and possibly two are headed for TSE Standard when the TSE makes its announcement on 11 January 2022. Suggested treatments are discussed.


Nikkei 225 Deletions/Additions in March(?) 2022 Due to TSE Market Structure Changes

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>There are currently 44  - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Four new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koufu-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27271:1" rel="noopener">Koufu Group Ltd (KOUFU SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mesco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16253:1" rel="noopener">Mesco Inc (1737 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-asset-marketing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20575:1" rel="noopener">Japan Asset Marketing (8922 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isolite-insulating-products" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20404:1" rel="noopener">Isolite Insulating Products (5358 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Keys updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are currently 44  - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Four new deals this week: Koufu Group Ltd (KOUFU SP), Mesco Inc (1737 JP), Japan Asset Marketing (8922 JP), and Isolite Insulating Products (5358 JP).
Keys updates took place for: Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) and Razer Inc (1337 HK).


Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Koufu Group, Mesco, Japan Asset, Isolite, Shinsei Bank, Razer

<ul>
<li>I was originally going to title this Shinsei Bank Buyback to Continue - Watch the Squeeze.</li>
<li>In reviewing the new news, and the existing setup, and reviewing my previous work on the name (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy/insights?fulltext=Shinsei" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>), I am inclined to repeat my 2021 High Conviction trade. Shinsei Bank.</li>
<li>So I did. Shinsei is my High Conviction Idea for a second year in a row. </li>
</ul>


I was originally going to title this Shinsei Bank Buyback to Continue - Watch the Squeeze.
In reviewing the new news, and the existing setup, and reviewing my previous work on the name (here), I am inclined to repeat my 2021 High Conviction trade. Shinsei Bank.
So I did. Shinsei is my High Conviction Idea for a second year in a row. 


Japan

SBI Shinsei Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction, as well as investment trust service and issuance of long-term bonds.

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SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)

2022 High Conviction - Shinsei Bank Update

Shinsei is buying back stock and the EGM to install SBI's management is Tuesday 8 February. Watch for more delisting talk after. There is buyback...

Travis Lundy

TSE Announces Market Structure Revisions: Still Much Ado About Nothing

The TSE today set the allocation of companies to the new TSE market structure segments. There are few surprises. Lots of noise, little change....

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Deletions/Additions in March(?) 2022 Due to TSE Market Structure Changes

There is likely to be one Nikkei 225 Change around the end of Q1 2022. There may be more. We will know more on 11 Jan 2022 how many deletions are...

Travis Lundy

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Koufu Group, Mesco, Japan Asset, Isolite, Shinsei Bank, Razer

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

2022 High Conviction - Shinsei Bank

Shinsei Bank is my High Conviction idea for the second year in a row. Just over 7x PER, well under half of book, limited float, and a squeeze out...

Travis Lundy

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