Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nikkei <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB072VM0X01C21A2000000/?unlock=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> out today at 6pm JST, the day before the Tender Offer close (after most shareholders would have decided to tender). This is slimy. Really bad. </li>
<li>The original Shinsei pushback was the partial offer was coercive at a low price because it didn't offer a full exit. SBI said "only 48%." </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> should push back, changing their recommendation, which <em>might</em> cause a 10-day extension. That would give investors a chance to withdraw.</li>
</ul>


Nikkei article out today at 6pm JST, the day before the Tender Offer close (after most shareholders would have decided to tender). This is slimy. Really bad. 
The original Shinsei pushback was the partial offer was coercive at a low price because it didn't offer a full exit. SBI said "only 48%." 

Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) should push back, changing their recommendation, which might cause a 10-day extension. That would give investors a chance to withdraw.


SBI To Apply for Bank Holding Company License Within Year And Squeeze Out Shinsei Minorities

<ul>
<li>Murakami-San bought more shares in Shinsei Bank and now he is up to 8.14% of shares out and nearly 10% of voting rights.</li>
<li>The timing and price of his new buy tell you more about the possibilities. It confirms his strategy was totally independent of the poison pill kerfuffle.</li>
<li>In this insight we walk through the post-tender positioning framework and its possibilities in some detail. </li>
</ul>


Murakami-San bought more shares in Shinsei Bank and now he is up to 8.14% of shares out and nearly 10% of voting rights.
The timing and price of his new buy tell you more about the possibilities. It confirms his strategy was totally independent of the poison pill kerfuffle.
In this insight we walk through the post-tender positioning framework and its possibilities in some detail. 


Shinsei Bank (8303): Parsing Murakami-San's Bet

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> has now basically given up against the fierce opposition of SBI and the fact that its Poison Pill wasn't going to do more than delay things.</li>
<li>Shinsei Bank COULD HAVE said it would cancel the Poison Pill but still opposed the TOB because of the low price and coercive nature. It went neutral instead.</li>
<li>Now it is ARB vs FUTURE SQUEEZE. And the question is... Will Murakami-san? Or won't he? Whichever way you think, there is a decent little arb here.</li>
</ul>



Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) has now basically given up against the fierce opposition of SBI and the fact that its Poison Pill wasn't going to do more than delay things.
Shinsei Bank COULD HAVE said it would cancel the Poison Pill but still opposed the TOB because of the low price and coercive nature. It went neutral instead.
Now it is ARB vs FUTURE SQUEEZE. And the question is... Will Murakami-san? Or won't he? Whichever way you think, there is a decent little arb here.


Shinsei Bank (8303): Does Murakami-San...? Or Doesn't He? That Is The Question.

<ul>
<li>On 24 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> cancelled the Poison Pill EGM scheduled for 25 November, and changed its SBI TOB Opinion to Neutral. SBI has agreed to respect Shinsei...</li>
<li>...management policy &amp; business strategy as per 12 November DICJ letter, and effect stable transition of management. That it is a partial TOB at a too low price, so...</li>
<li>...Shinsei will not support. BUT... the BIGGEST problem comes next. And it is a doozy. There are post-tender complications which require contortions to resolve. </li>
</ul>


On 24 November, Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) cancelled the Poison Pill EGM scheduled for 25 November, and changed its SBI TOB Opinion to Neutral. SBI has agreed to respect Shinsei...
...management policy &amp; business strategy as per 12 November DICJ letter, and effect stable transition of management. That it is a partial TOB at a too low price, so...
...Shinsei will not support. BUT... the BIGGEST problem comes next. And it is a doozy. There are post-tender complications which require contortions to resolve. 


Shinsei Drops Opposition to SBI TOB; A Fascinating Post-Tender Game of 🐔

<ul>
<li>Overnight, NHK and Nikkei reported that the Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan is leaning towards voting AGAINST the Poison Pill in the Shinsei EGM Thursday.</li>
<li>Given SBI has 20.32% of the vote and the DICJ has 23.31%, that would make passage of the Poison Pill defence more likely to fail. </li>
<li>Investors should be looking at what could happen if the vote fails. </li>
</ul>


Overnight, NHK and Nikkei reported that the Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan is leaning towards voting AGAINST the Poison Pill in the Shinsei EGM Thursday.
Given SBI has 20.32% of the vote and the DICJ has 23.31%, that would make passage of the Poison Pill defence more likely to fail. 
Investors should be looking at what could happen if the vote fails. 


Shinsei EGM:  Govt May Vote AGAINST But Could Shinsei Rig The Vote?

Japan

SBI Shinsei Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction, as well as investment trust service and issuance of long-term bonds.

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SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)

SBI To Apply for Bank Holding Company License Within Year And Squeeze Out Shinsei Minorities

SBI appears to be setting up to take majority control of Shinsei. The Nikkei carried an article about post-tender intentions for a takeover. This...

Travis Lundy

Shinsei Bank (8303): Parsing Murakami-San's Bet

Murakami-san has upped his position in Shinsei Bank yet again, this time adding after the EGM kerfuffle was resolved. That tells us something and...

Travis Lundy

Shinsei Bank (8303): Does Murakami-San...? Or Doesn't He? That Is The Question.

The Shinsei Bank (8303) Tender Offer Arb is now officially juicy. There is a question of whether Murakami-san will tender or whether he won't. That...

Travis Lundy

Shinsei Drops Opposition to SBI TOB; A Fascinating Post-Tender Game of 🐔

Shinsei has announced it is calling off the Poison Pill EGM and going "neutral" on the Tender Offer. That means the TOB is going to be...

Travis Lundy

Shinsei EGM: Govt May Vote AGAINST But Could Shinsei Rig The Vote?

The news overnight (on what is a national holiday) is that the DICJ is leaning towards "not voting FOR" the Shinsei Poison Pill. That doesn't mean...

Travis Lundy

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