IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rigaku-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43950:1" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP)</a> is Japan’s leading manufacturer of X-ray analysis, measurement and testing instruments. It is seeking to raise up to US$760 million. </li>
<li>In Japan, Rigaku’s XRD (X-ray diffraction) has a high market share of 75%. Around 70% of its revenue is derived from customers outside Japan.   </li>
<li>The bull case rests on high customer switching costs, peer-leading revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, FCF generation, and low leverage.</li>
</ul>



Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is Japan’s leading manufacturer of X-ray analysis, measurement and testing instruments. It is seeking to raise up to US$760 million. 
In Japan, Rigaku’s XRD (X-ray diffraction) has a high market share of 75%. Around 70% of its revenue is derived from customers outside Japan.   
The bull case rests on high customer switching costs, peer-leading revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, FCF generation, and low leverage.


Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rigaku-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43950:1" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP)</a> provides cutting-edge analytical solutions centered on X-ray technology globally. The company is one of the largest players globally in X-ray diffraction instrument market.</li>
<li>The company has filed for an IPO on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and plans to raise proceeds of around US$900m from the IPO at a potential valuation of US$2bn.</li>
<li>In this insight, we discuss Rigaku’s business model, key drivers, financials and outlook for the company.</li>
</ul>



Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) provides cutting-edge analytical solutions centered on X-ray technology globally. The company is one of the largest players globally in X-ray diffraction instrument market.
The company has filed for an IPO on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and plans to raise proceeds of around US$900m from the IPO at a potential valuation of US$2bn.
In this insight, we discuss Rigaku’s business model, key drivers, financials and outlook for the company.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, Free Float Weight (FFW) will be reduced on 284 stocks and increased on 458 stocks. 43 stocks will be removed from Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 1.77% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.45tn. 364 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 97 stocks have over 8 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Over the last 6 months, the stocks with inflows (&gt;US$25m) have outperformed the stocks with outflows (&gt;US$25m) with most of the outperformance coming in the last three months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, Free Float Weight (FFW) will be reduced on 284 stocks and increased on 458 stocks. 43 stocks will be removed from Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.77% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.45tn. 364 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 97 stocks have over 8 days ADV to trade.
Over the last 6 months, the stocks with inflows (&gt;US$25m) have outperformed the stocks with outflows (&gt;US$25m) with most of the outperformance coming in the last three months.


TOPIX October 2023 Rebalance: Round Trip Trade of US$20bn; Upweights Outperform Downweights

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Starting in 2024, Shimadzu plans to produce high-end analytical instruments and medical systems in China. It must do this in order to maintain market access. </li>
<li>China is the company's largest and fastest growing market outside Japan. Concerns about IP protection notwithstanding, we regard this as a positive development.</li>
<li>The shares are down 10% from its 52-week high and selling at 23x this fiscal year's EPS guidance, which looks conservative. Buy for the long term.</li>
</ul>


Starting in 2024, Shimadzu plans to produce high-end analytical instruments and medical systems in China. It must do this in order to maintain market access. 
China is the company's largest and fastest growing market outside Japan. Concerns about IP protection notwithstanding, we regard this as a positive development.
The shares are down 10% from its 52-week high and selling at 23x this fiscal year's EPS guidance, which looks conservative. Buy for the long term.


Shimadzu (7701): Planing to Make High-End Products in China

Japan

Shimadzu Corporation is a precision tools and equipment maker.  The Company develops, manufactures, and sells analytical and measuring instruments, medical systems, and  aircraft and industrial equipment.  Shimadzu researches, develops, and markets the products through its related companies in Japan, the US, the UK, and China.

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Shimadzu Corp (7701 JP)

Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on high customer switching costs, peer-leading revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, FCF generation, and low leverage.

Arun George

Rigaku Holdings IPO: Initial Thoughts

Rigaku, a global leader in scientific instruments based on X-ray technology, has filed for an IPO in Japan with plans to raise $900m at a...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

TOPIX October 2023 Rebalance: Round Trip Trade of US$20bn; Upweights Outperform Downweights

There are FFW changes for 700+ stocks and changes to the Phased Weight Reduction list. Round trip trade is around US$20bn and there is over 8 days...

Brian Freitas

Shimadzu (7701): Planing to Make High-End Products in China

The decision to produce high-end products in China is both unavoidable and positive. Aircraft equipment is finally on the rebound. Valuations...

Scott Foster

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Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on high customer switching costs, peer-leading revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, FCF generation, and low leverage.

Arun George

Rigaku Holdings IPO: Initial Thoughts

​Rigaku, a global leader in scientific instruments based on X-ray technology, has filed for an IPO in Japan with plans to raise $900m at a...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

TOPIX October 2023 Rebalance: Round Trip Trade of US$20bn; Upweights Outperform Downweights

There are FFW changes for 700+ stocks and changes to the Phased Weight Reduction list. Round trip trade is around US$20bn and there is over 8 days...

Brian Freitas

Shimadzu (7701): Planing to Make High-End Products in China

The decision to produce high-end products in China is both unavoidable and positive. Aircraft equipment is finally on the rebound. Valuations...

Scott Foster

Rigaku, a global leader in scientific instruments based on X-ray technology, has filed for an IPO in Japan with plans to raise $900m at a...