Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A massive shortage of IT professionals combined with Shift's overwhelming dominance of the labor market should drive 20% annual revenue growth through 2030. </li>
<li>But Shift missed consensus profitability estimates 3 consecutive quarters, and the share price is down 67% in 12 months, compared to an 18% rise in the median peer. </li>
<li>In our view, a recovery in profitability is already underway, and shares are at least 45% undervalued</li>
</ul>


A massive shortage of IT professionals combined with Shift's overwhelming dominance of the labor market should drive 20% annual revenue growth through 2030. 
But Shift missed consensus profitability estimates 3 consecutive quarters, and the share price is down 67% in 12 months, compared to an 18% rise in the median peer. 
In our view, a recovery in profitability is already underway, and shares are at least 45% undervalued


Shift (3697): Profitability Rebound Underway

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> s share price has been down 65% YTD as the company’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement led to fall in margins which concerned the market.</li>
<li>However, the company has adopted several measures to improve its margins, and we expect the investment in HR and others to generate results going forward.</li>
<li>Though share price has moved up slightly, valuation multiples are at a steep discount, and we would look for building a position.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) s share price has been down 65% YTD as the company’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement led to fall in margins which concerned the market.
However, the company has adopted several measures to improve its margins, and we expect the investment in HR and others to generate results going forward.
Though share price has moved up slightly, valuation multiples are at a steep discount, and we would look for building a position.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> reported 4Q and full-year FY08/2023 results today. 4Q revenue increased 38.2% YoY while OP more than doubled during the quarter. Both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates.</li>
<li>Full-Year revenues and OP increased 35.7% and 67.4% respectively beating consensus estimates by 1.2% and 67.4% respectively. Both revenue and OP were above the company's own guidance.</li>
<li>Shift’s share price has dropped by about 17% since August as market became concerned over the growth prospects, however, share price has started to move up.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) reported 4Q and full-year FY08/2023 results today. 4Q revenue increased 38.2% YoY while OP more than doubled during the quarter. Both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates.
Full-Year revenues and OP increased 35.7% and 67.4% respectively beating consensus estimates by 1.2% and 67.4% respectively. Both revenue and OP were above the company's own guidance.
Shift’s share price has dropped by about 17% since August as market became concerned over the growth prospects, however, share price has started to move up.


High Conviction Shift: Another Upbeat Quarter; Wipes Off Concerns Over an Earnings Slowdown

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> ’s share price has been down more than 50% YTD with the release of 1QFY08/2024 results in January 2024 which saw a drop in margins.</li>
<li>The company’s aggressive investment in HR and system reinforcement led to a decline in margins, however, margins saw a QoQ improvement in 2QFY08/2024.</li>
<li>Despite there being an improvement in 2Q and the company expecting the margins to bounce back in 4Q, Shift’s share price has continued to fall.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) ’s share price has been down more than 50% YTD with the release of 1QFY08/2024 results in January 2024 which saw a drop in margins.
The company’s aggressive investment in HR and system reinforcement led to a decline in margins, however, margins saw a QoQ improvement in 2QFY08/2024.
Despite there being an improvement in 2Q and the company expecting the margins to bounce back in 4Q, Shift’s share price has continued to fall.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> reported 1QFY08/2024 results last week. Revenue and OP increased 29.5% and 0.4% YoY to ¥25.1bn and ¥1.8bn respectively.</li>
<li>Both revenue and OP were below consensus estimates which triggered a more than 25% drop in Shift’s share price over the last 5 days.</li>
<li>We think the weaknesses in the company’s 1Q earnings were temporary and we expect the company’s earnings to show recovery going forward</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) reported 1QFY08/2024 results last week. Revenue and OP increased 29.5% and 0.4% YoY to ¥25.1bn and ¥1.8bn respectively.
Both revenue and OP were below consensus estimates which triggered a more than 25% drop in Shift’s share price over the last 5 days.
We think the weaknesses in the company’s 1Q earnings were temporary and we expect the company’s earnings to show recovery going forward


Shift: Market Overreacts to Temporary Dip in Earnings

Japan

SHIFT Inc. offers information technology outsourcing services. The Company provides outsourcing software testing services to corporations and individual clients. SHIFT also provides software solutions and consulting services, as well as educational classes and programs.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shift Inc (3697 JP)

Shift (3697): Profitability Rebound Underway

Japan's massive shortage of IT professionals and Shift's dominance of the IT labor market should sustain 20% annual sales growth. Profit could grow...

Michael Allen

Shift: Is It a Good Time to Buy?

Shift shares down 65% YTD as investment in aggressive hiring and system reinforcement dragged down margins. Measures are in place to revive...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

High Conviction Shift: Another Upbeat Quarter; Wipes Off Concerns Over an Earnings Slowdown

Shift reported strong 4Q results which beat estimates. Share price has dropped since August due to concerns over earnings growth, however, recent...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Shift: On a Road to Recovery

Shift's share price has been down more than 50% YTD due to a drop in the company's margins in 1QFY08/2024. There has been a notable improvement in...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Shift: Market Overreacts to Temporary Dip in Earnings

Shift's 1QFY08/2024 revenues and operating profit fell below consensus which triggered a more than 25% drop in the company's share price over the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shift (3697): Profitability Rebound Underway

Japan's massive shortage of IT professionals and Shift's dominance of the IT labor market should sustain 20% annual sales growth. Profit could grow...

Michael Allen

Shift: Is It a Good Time to Buy?

​Shift shares down 65% YTD as investment in aggressive hiring and system reinforcement dragged down margins. Measures are in place to revive...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

High Conviction Shift: Another Upbeat Quarter; Wipes Off Concerns Over an Earnings Slowdown

​Shift reported strong 4Q results which beat estimates. Share price has dropped since August due to concerns over earnings growth, however, recent...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Shift: On a Road to Recovery

​Shift's share price has been down more than 50% YTD due to a drop in the company's margins in 1QFY08/2024. There has been a notable improvement in...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Shift: Market Overreacts to Temporary Dip in Earnings

​Shift's 1QFY08/2024 revenues and operating profit fell below consensus which triggered a more than 25% drop in the company's share price over the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Shift shares down 65% YTD as investment in aggressive hiring and system reinforcement dragged down margins. Measures are in place to revive...

Shift reported strong 4Q results which beat estimates. Share price has dropped since August due to concerns over earnings growth, however, recent...

Shift's share price has been down more than 50% YTD due to a drop in the company's margins in 1QFY08/2024. There has been a notable improvement in...

Shift's 1QFY08/2024 revenues and operating profit fell below consensus which triggered a more than 25% drop in the company's share price over the...