Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225 Index</a> over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.</li>
<li>Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.
The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the Nikkei225 Index over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.
Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> is a high-growth stock in the software services, testing, consulting, development business. They have a big specialist TAM ahead of them. </li>
<li>Revenue is up 50-fold in 10 years. OP is up 85-fold in that period. Revenue is guided +17.5% in the year to Aug 2025. OP is guided +28%.</li>
<li>There is an event coming up shortly which could trigger an imminent index inclusion. It's worth a look.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) is a high-growth stock in the software services, testing, consulting, development business. They have a big specialist TAM ahead of them. 
Revenue is up 50-fold in 10 years. OP is up 85-fold in that period. Revenue is guided +17.5% in the year to Aug 2025. OP is guided +28%.
There is an event coming up shortly which could trigger an imminent index inclusion. It's worth a look.


SHIFT (3697) The Next - Potential Big Index Add

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shift reported a 95% increase in OP, to ¥3.2bn, compared to consensus estimate of ¥2.6bn on January 14 after the close.</li>
<li>Just under 5 months ago, we suggested the stock was about 45% undervalued. It is up 40%.</li>
<li>We still expect 20% annual growth through 2030. This is no longer a turnaround stock, but now one of the most solid growth stocks in the market.</li>
</ul>


Shift reported a 95% increase in OP, to ¥3.2bn, compared to consensus estimate of ¥2.6bn on January 14 after the close.
Just under 5 months ago, we suggested the stock was about 45% undervalued. It is up 40%.
We still expect 20% annual growth through 2030. This is no longer a turnaround stock, but now one of the most solid growth stocks in the market.


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> ’s share price went up by about 13% today following the release of its 1QFY08/2025 results yesterday. Share price is up 19% YTD.</li>
<li>• Shift’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement had resulted in a decline in the company’s margins since 1QFY08/2024, this drove share prices down.</li>
<li>Shift has once again proved that its business model is resilient and we expect the company’s earnings to continue to see strong growth going forward.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) ’s share price went up by about 13% today following the release of its 1QFY08/2025 results yesterday. Share price is up 19% YTD.
• Shift’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement had resulted in a decline in the company’s margins since 1QFY08/2024, this drove share prices down.
Shift has once again proved that its business model is resilient and we expect the company’s earnings to continue to see strong growth going forward.


Shift 1Q: Earnings Beat with Further Upside

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies, Shared Research Inc

Shared Research

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies

Shared Research Inc

Pioneering research coverage of Japanese listed companies. Now customizable and interactive for global institutional investors. Corporate access reimagined.

<ul><li>In Q1 FY08/25, the company reported sales of JPY30.2bn, gross profit of JPY10.0bn, and net income of JPY2.0bn.</li><li>Software Testing Related Services segment sales reached JPY19.3bn, with operating profit at JPY4.8bn, driven by higher utilization rates.</li><li>Software Development Related Services segment sales were JPY9.7bn, with operating profit of JPY711mn, aided by ERP project expansion.</li></ul>

In Q1 FY08/25, the company reported sales of JPY30.2bn, gross profit of JPY10.0bn, and net income of JPY2.0bn.Software Testing Related Services segment sales reached JPY19.3bn, with operating profit at JPY4.8bn, driven by higher utilization rates.Software Development Related Services segment sales were JPY9.7bn, with operating profit of JPY711mn, aided by ERP project expansion.

Shift Inc (3697 JP): Q1 FY08/25 flash update

Japan

SHIFT Inc. offers information technology outsourcing services. The Company provides outsourcing software testing services to corporations and individual clients. SHIFT also provides software solutions and consulting services, as well as educational classes and programs.

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Shift Inc (3697 JP)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The forecast adds have strongly outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. Positioning appears stretched in 1 add while there is under...

Brian Freitas

SHIFT (3697) The Next - Potential Big Index Add

SHIFT has gone through earnings, surprised to the upside, and is up 10% since when I wrote. The 15:1 stock split which a) makes the Nikkei 225...

Travis Lundy

Shift Beats Q1 Consensus by 30%

Shift's impressive 95% increase in operating profit exceeded expectations, with the stock now up 40% and poised for continued 20% annual growth...

Michael Allen

Shift 1Q: Earnings Beat with Further Upside

Shift's share price rose 13% after strong 1QFY08/2025 results. Key highlight was operating profits which beat consensus by a huge margin. Fall in...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Shift Inc (3697 JP): Q1 FY08/25 flash update

In Q1 FY08/25, the company reported sales of JPY30.2bn, gross profit of JPY10.0bn, and net income of JPY2.0bn. Software Testing Related Services...

Shared Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The forecast adds have strongly outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. Positioning appears stretched in 1 add while there is under...

Brian Freitas

SHIFT (3697) The Next - Potential Big Index Add

SHIFT has gone through earnings, surprised to the upside, and is up 10% since when I wrote. The 15:1 stock split which a) makes the Nikkei 225...

Travis Lundy

Shift Beats Q1 Consensus by 30%

​Shift's impressive 95% increase in operating profit exceeded expectations, with the stock now up 40% and poised for continued 20% annual growth...

Michael Allen

Shift 1Q: Earnings Beat with Further Upside

​Shift's share price rose 13% after strong 1QFY08/2025 results. Key highlight was operating profits which beat consensus by a huge margin. Fall in...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Shift Inc (3697 JP): Q1 FY08/25 flash update

In Q1 FY08/25, the company reported sales of JPY30.2bn, gross profit of JPY10.0bn, and net income of JPY2.0bn. Software Testing Related Services...

Shared Research

Shift's impressive 95% increase in operating profit exceeded expectations, with the stock now up 40% and poised for continued 20% annual growth...

Shift's share price rose 13% after strong 1QFY08/2025 results. Key highlight was operating profits which beat consensus by a huge margin. Fall in...