Energy Expert

Thierry Bros, PhD

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>The Australian government has been relying on the private sector regarding Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports with the belief that the corporate taxation should benefit the state if each private company's aim was to maximize their own profit. This is in stark contrast to the US where the objective of the US Obama administration <a href="#_ftn1" target="_blank">[1]</a> was to avoid any interference with oil-indexation or with consuming countries like the EU and Japan that want a competitive spot LNG.</h2><p>The outcome of the Australian…</p>

The Australian government has been relying on the private sector regarding Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports with the belief that the corporate taxation should benefit the state if each private company's aim was to maximize their own profit. This is in stark contrast to the US where the objective of the US Obama administration [1] was to avoid any interference with oil-indexation or with consuming countries like the EU and Japan that want a competitive spot LNG.The outcome of the Australian…

Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism Increases Risks of Under-Delivering for LNG Producer

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Dennis Gartman, publisher of his eponymous investor newsletter, is known for making forceful comments on commodities. Increasingly, he has also been known for being wrong.  </p><p>We can’t say he is always wrong. But over the years he’s proven to be a valid contrarian indicator much/most of the time. </p><p>Dennis Gartman is a creature of CNBC. Always with a quick draw opinion. Always there to tell you that what is happening, ... is happening. And to try to get you to sell or buy as often as he changes his…</p>

Dennis Gartman, publisher of his eponymous investor newsletter, is known for making forceful comments on commodities. Increasingly, he has also been known for being wrong.  We can’t say he is always wrong. But over the years he’s proven to be a valid contrarian indicator much/most of the time. Dennis Gartman is a creature of CNBC. Always with a quick draw opinion. Always there to tell you that what is happening, ... is happening. And to try to get you to sell or buy as often as he changes his…

The Gartman Indicator – Perhaps an Oil Bottom Is Nearer than We Think?

Thierrybros.com

<div class="content-highlight"><p>Smartkarma's unique feature allows peers to review research notes and offer new ideas. I would like to thank all reviewers of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/are-international-oil-companies-adapting-to-climate-change-challenges" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8876">Are International Oil Companies Adapting to Climate Change Challenges?</a> for providing the added value that I'm using for this new piece in depth reviewing the gas business of International Oil Companies. I have also taken into account the recent 2016 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8457" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8457:1">Petrochina Co Ltd Adr (PTR US)</a> data not available then.</p></div><p style="text-align: justify;">First of all, it is important to check that the world is moving more…</p>

Smartkarma's unique feature allows peers to review research notes and offer new ideas. I would like to thank all reviewers of Are International Oil Companies Adapting to Climate Change Challenges? for providing the added value that I'm using for this new piece in depth reviewing the gas business of International Oil Companies. I have also taken into account the recent 2016 Petrochina Co Ltd Adr (PTR US) data not available then.First of all, it is important to check that the world is moving more…

<div class="content-highlight"><p>As International Oil Companies (IOC) have now published their FY2016 results, let's compare their level of oil and gas production to see which one is best positioned if our world has to move away from oil (and coal) to gas, the cleanest fossil fuel (and renewable).</p></div><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/021/237/original/2016%20HC%20production.JPG?1487582898" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="21237"></figure><p><em>Source: company data, thierrybros.com</em></p>
</div><ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23749" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23749:1">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX)</a>'s hydrocarbon production increased by 1% thanks to an 8% increase in oil. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23749" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23749:1">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX)</a> is the biggest listed hydrocarbon producer but more importantly, with gas…</li></ul>

As International Oil Companies (IOC) have now published their FY2016 results, let's compare their level of oil and gas production to see which one is best positioned if our world has to move away from oil (and coal) to gas, the cleanest fossil fuel (and renewable).
Source: company data, thierrybros.com

Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX)'s hydrocarbon production increased by 1% thanks to an 8% increase in oil. Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX) is the biggest listed hydrocarbon producer but more importantly, with gas…

Are International Oil Companies Adapting to Climate Change Challenges?

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

<p><strong><em>DFRS Maritime model portfolio – 1 year performance with 38% return </em></strong></p><ul><li><em><strong>Our portfolio defied a terrible year for the industry to produce a 38% return in our first year out.</strong> The model portfolio markedly outperformed the benchmark indices, BISHIPGP Index (Bloomberg Intelligence Marine Shipping Index, 14%) and MSCI World Index(19%) by a big margin. </em></li><li><em><strong>For 2017, lowering allocation to dry bulk stocks; increasing weightage on container trade.</strong> We have reduced our allocation to the dry bulk segment to 31% from 42%. The value play is over in our view and we believe stocks could be at the risk of “too soon too fast” in the near term. Conversely, we believe that the worst is over for the container shipping and we see higher returns for the sector in 2017-18. We have increased the allocation to the sector from 8% to 27%. The port sector is another major constituent of our model portfolio for 2017 as world trade recovery gathers steam and earnings remain resilient for our portfolio constituents. </em></li><li><em>We are Neutral on gas shipping as we believe the stocks are trading in a fair territory, while we maintain our Unattractive stance on tankers. </em></li></ul>

DFRS Maritime model portfolio – 1 year performance with 38% return Our portfolio defied a terrible year for the industry to produce a 38% return in our first year out. The model portfolio markedly outperformed the benchmark indices, BISHIPGP Index (Bloomberg Intelligence Marine Shipping Index, 14%) and MSCI World Index(19%) by a big margin. For 2017, lowering allocation to dry bulk stocks; increasing weightage on container trade. We have reduced our allocation to the dry bulk segment to 31% from 42%. The value play is over in our view and we believe stocks could be at the risk of “too soon too fast” in the near term. Conversely, we believe that the worst is over for the container shipping and we see higher returns for the sector in 2017-18. We have increased the allocation to the sector from 8% to 27%. The port sector is another major constituent of our model portfolio for 2017 as world trade recovery gathers steam and earnings remain resilient for our portfolio constituents. We are Neutral on gas shipping as we believe the stocks are trading in a fair territory, while we maintain our Unattractive stance on tankers. 

DFRS Maritime Model Portfolio - 1 Year Performance with 38% Return

United Kingdom

BP plc is an oil and petrochemicals company.  The Company explores for and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals.  BP's chemicals include terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene and polyethylene.

SEPLAT Petroleum Development Co Plc is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company incorporated and operating in Nigeria with a strategic focus on Nigeria.

Tullow Oil plc explores for and produces oil and gas. The Group's assets are in Africa, Europe, South America and Asia.

Savannah Energy PLC is a leading African focused British independent energy company with current operations in Nigeria and Niger, where the Company is sustainably developing high-quality and high-growth projects.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited is an independent oil company. The Company operates Shaikan Field, one of the largest developments in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Genel Energy PLC  specializes in investing in oil and natural gas assets. The Company has stakes in producing oil fields, a gas condensate discovery and exploration acreage, all in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Pantheon Resources plc, through its subsidiaries, explores and produces oil and gas in the United States. The company owns a 50% working interest in four projects located in Tyler and Polk counties, East Texas. It also holds a 25% working interest in a project in Polk County, East Texas. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Hargreaves Services plc sources, produces, processes, handles, and transports carbon-based and other bulk materials in the United Kingdom and Europe. It operates in three segments: Coal Production and Distribution, Industrial Services, and Transport. The Coal Production and Distribution segment provides coal, coke, minerals, smokeless fuel, and biomass products to a range of industrial, wholesale, and public sector energy consumers. The Industrial Services segment offers contract management services to the power generation, utilities, chemicals, minerals, and steel industries. The Transport segment provides bulk logistic services. The company owns or operates nine surface coal mines, including seven in Scotland; one in Wales; and one in England, as well as four port terminals. In addition, it engages in the steel services business in South Africa; operates a fleet of 450-strong HGV trucks; haulage, mineral import, and processing; smokeless fuel briquette manufacturing; and wind and renewable energy business, as well as provides engineering maintenance services. Hargreaves Services plc was founded in 1994 and is based in Durham, the United Kingdom.

James Fisher & Sons P.L.C. is an ocean shipping company. The Company's operations include shipowning, ship management, chartering, freight forwarding, and insurance consulting.  Fisher also operates as ships' agency, in shipbroking, contracting, stevedoring, transport, port operations, and warehousing. The Company operates in the United Kingdom.

Hurricane Energy plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration of oil and gas properties in the United Kingdom. The company holds interests in Lancaster basement discovery, Whirlwind basement discovery, Lincoln basement, Typhoon basement, Warwick basement, and Strathmore sandstone discovery prospects located to the West of Shetland. It has 100% interest in 450 million barrels of 2C contingent resources. The company was formerly known as Hurricane Exploration plc and changed its name to Hurricane Energy plc in April 2013. Hurricane Energy plc was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Godalming, the United Kingdom.

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

Reliance Industries Ltd. manufactures petrochemicals, synthetic fibers, fiber intermediates, textiles, blended yarn and polyester staple fiber. The Company also owns a petroleum refinery cum petrochemicals complex in Jamnagar, India that produces a wide range of products such as gasoline, superior kerosene oil and liquefied petroleum gas.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation produces and trades petroleum and petrochemical products. The Company offers gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, ethylene, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, synthetic resins, and chemical fertilizers. China Petroleum & Chemical markets its products throughout China.

TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. TOTAL operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

Phillips 66 is a downstream energy company.  The Company's operations include oil refining, marketing and transportation.  Phillips 66's operations also include chemical manufacturing and power generation.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited specializes in the exploration and production of crude oil and gas. The Company has joint ventures in oil fields in Vietnam, Norway, Egypt, Tunisia, Iran and Australia. The Group's other activities include deep sea explorations on the east and west coasts of India, and the exploration of coal bed methane.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation refines, transports, and markets petroleum products. The Company sells its products to resellers and consumers in the mid-west, gulf coast, and southeast United States.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company engages in onshore oil and gas drilling, exploration and production in the United States.

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company with operations in countries located around the world.  The Company produces and transports crude oil and natural gas.  Chevron also refines, markets, and distributes fuels as well as is involved in chemical operations, mining operations, power generation and energy services.

EOG Resources, Inc. explores for, develops, produces and markets natural gas and crude oil. The Company operates in major producing basins in the United States, Canada, Trinidad, the United Kingdom North Sea, China and, from time to time, select other international areas.

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces fuels, chemicals, and lubricants. Shell serves clients worldwide.

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Shell PLC (SHEL LN)

Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism Increases Risks of Under-Delivering for LNG Producer

The Australian government has been relying on the private sector regarding Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports with the belief that the corporate...

Thierry Bros, PhD

The Gartman Indicator – Perhaps an Oil Bottom Is Nearer than We Think?

Dennis Gartman, publisher of his eponymous investor newsletter, is known for making forceful comments on commodities. Increasingly, he has also...

Charles De Trenck

International Oil Companies - Gas Review

Smartkarma's unique feature allows peers to review research notes and offer new ideas. I would like to thank all reviewers of Are International Oil...

Thierry Bros, PhD

Are International Oil Companies Adapting to Climate Change Challenges?

As International Oil Companies (IOC) have now published their FY2016 results, let's compare their level of oil and gas production to see which one...

Thierry Bros, PhD

DFRS Maritime Model Portfolio - 1 Year Performance with 38% Return

DFRS Maritime model portfolio – 1 year performance with 38% return Our portfolio defied a terrible year for the industry to produce a 38% return...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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