Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: <ul><li>Overweight Japan. </li><li>Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. </li><li>Actionable Sector/Group themes:<ol><li>Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. </li><li>Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. </li><li>Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.</li></ol></li></ul>

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: Overweight Japan. Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. Actionable Sector/Group themes:Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst, VAC Investments

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Oil Price</h2>Crude prices fell through the week driven by concerns around continued US production growth and doubts about Russia's commitment to a likely OPEC quota cut extension when they meet on 30 November. However, prices rebounded on Friday following encouraging comments by Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister as well a leak and subsequent shutdown of the 590 Kbbls/day TransCanada pipeline, to end the week broadly flat. Brent ended the week at USD 62.72/bbl, with WTI at USD 56.55/bbl.  Our take: My…

Oil PriceCrude prices fell through the week driven by concerns around continued US production growth and doubts about Russia's commitment to a likely OPEC quota cut extension when they meet on 30 November. However, prices rebounded on Friday following encouraging comments by Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister as well a leak and subsequent shutdown of the 590 Kbbls/day TransCanada pipeline, to end the week broadly flat. Brent ended the week at USD 62.72/bbl, with WTI at USD 56.55/bbl.  Our take: My…

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

Woodside Petroleum / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22108" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22108:1">Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA LN)</a> is selling USD1,704m shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/177" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1">Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WPL AU)</a>, three years after its last sold down in 2014. In this insight, we will look at the background of the sell down, fundamentals of WPL and score the deal in our ECM Framework.<h2>Placement Specifics</h2><ul>
<li>Company Name: Woodside Petroleum Ltd</li>
<li>Ticker: WPL AU Equity</li>
<li>Secondary offering</li>
<li>Settlement date:16 Nov, 2017</li>
<li>Bookrunner: MS, UBS</li>
<li>Indicative deal price: 31.1 fixed</li>
<li>Last Traded Price: AUD32.24</li>
<li>Implied placing discount: 3.50%</li>
<li>…</li>
</ul>

Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA LN) is selling USD1,704m shares in Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WPL AU), three years after its last sold down in 2014. In this insight, we will look at the background of the sell down, fundamentals of WPL and score the deal in our ECM Framework.Placement Specifics
Company Name: Woodside Petroleum Ltd
Ticker: WPL AU Equity
Secondary offering
Settlement date:16 Nov, 2017
Bookrunner: MS, UBS
Indicative deal price: 31.1 fixed
Last Traded Price: AUD32.24
Implied placing discount: 3.50%
…


Woodside Petroleum - USD1.7bn Block by Shell at the Juncture of LNG Oversupply

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Sector trends are telling a bullish narrative. Cyclical sectors continue to lead, with tech at the helm, and defensive segments still exhibit lagging relative strength trends. Combined, this relationship is visible in the consumer discretionary/staples ratio, which is breaking out to multi-year highs. In today’s report we highlight the following themes:<ul><li>Auto stocks are breaking out -- buy. Highlighted charts include: Daimler (DAI-DE), Ford (F), Hyundai Motor (005380-KR), Peugeot (UG-FR), Renault (RNO-FR), and Volkswagen (VOW-DE). Increase exposure... see page 4-5</li><li>Energy is bottoming -- buy (reiteration). We highlight a wide selection of actionable names, both small- and large-caps, developed and emerging... see page 6-9</li></ul>

Sector trends are telling a bullish narrative. Cyclical sectors continue to lead, with tech at the helm, and defensive segments still exhibit lagging relative strength trends. Combined, this relationship is visible in the consumer discretionary/staples ratio, which is breaking out to multi-year highs. In today’s report we highlight the following themes:Auto stocks are breaking out -- buy. Highlighted charts include: Daimler (DAI-DE), Ford (F), Hyundai Motor (005380-KR), Peugeot (UG-FR), Renault (RNO-FR), and Volkswagen (VOW-DE). Increase exposure... see page 4-5Energy is bottoming -- buy (reiteration). We highlight a wide selection of actionable names, both small- and large-caps, developed and emerging... see page 6-9

Int'l Equity Strategy: Buy Energy, Global Autos

We are seeing a majority of energy-related equities stage bullish price and RS reversals, emerging from bullish bases and breaking to multi-month highs.In this report we focus on bullish opportunities in E&amp;P companies.  We will continue to monitor the service related names for signs of similar price action.Highlighted and actionable charts: TOT, RDS.A, BP, PBR, EOG, OXY, APC, MRO, MUR, IMO, ECA, CXO, CLR, COG, XEC, PDCE, SRCI and SM.

We are seeing a majority of energy-related equities stage bullish price and RS reversals, emerging from bullish bases and breaking to multi-month highs.In this report we focus on bullish opportunities in E&amp;P companies.  We will continue to monitor the service related names for signs of similar price action.Highlighted and actionable charts: TOT, RDS.A, BP, PBR, EOG, OXY, APC, MRO, MUR, IMO, ECA, CXO, CLR, COG, XEC, PDCE, SRCI and SM.

United Kingdom

BP plc is an oil and petrochemicals company.  The Company explores for and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals.  BP's chemicals include terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene and polyethylene.

SEPLAT Petroleum Development Co Plc is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company incorporated and operating in Nigeria with a strategic focus on Nigeria.

Tullow Oil plc explores for and produces oil and gas. The Group's assets are in Africa, Europe, South America and Asia.

Savannah Energy PLC is a leading African focused British independent energy company with current operations in Nigeria and Niger, where the Company is sustainably developing high-quality and high-growth projects.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited is an independent oil company. The Company operates Shaikan Field, one of the largest developments in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Genel Energy PLC  specializes in investing in oil and natural gas assets. The Company has stakes in producing oil fields, a gas condensate discovery and exploration acreage, all in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Pantheon Resources plc, through its subsidiaries, explores and produces oil and gas in the United States. The company owns a 50% working interest in four projects located in Tyler and Polk counties, East Texas. It also holds a 25% working interest in a project in Polk County, East Texas. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Hargreaves Services plc sources, produces, processes, handles, and transports carbon-based and other bulk materials in the United Kingdom and Europe. It operates in three segments: Coal Production and Distribution, Industrial Services, and Transport. The Coal Production and Distribution segment provides coal, coke, minerals, smokeless fuel, and biomass products to a range of industrial, wholesale, and public sector energy consumers. The Industrial Services segment offers contract management services to the power generation, utilities, chemicals, minerals, and steel industries. The Transport segment provides bulk logistic services. The company owns or operates nine surface coal mines, including seven in Scotland; one in Wales; and one in England, as well as four port terminals. In addition, it engages in the steel services business in South Africa; operates a fleet of 450-strong HGV trucks; haulage, mineral import, and processing; smokeless fuel briquette manufacturing; and wind and renewable energy business, as well as provides engineering maintenance services. Hargreaves Services plc was founded in 1994 and is based in Durham, the United Kingdom.

James Fisher & Sons P.L.C. is an ocean shipping company. The Company's operations include shipowning, ship management, chartering, freight forwarding, and insurance consulting.  Fisher also operates as ships' agency, in shipbroking, contracting, stevedoring, transport, port operations, and warehousing. The Company operates in the United Kingdom.

Hurricane Energy plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration of oil and gas properties in the United Kingdom. The company holds interests in Lancaster basement discovery, Whirlwind basement discovery, Lincoln basement, Typhoon basement, Warwick basement, and Strathmore sandstone discovery prospects located to the West of Shetland. It has 100% interest in 450 million barrels of 2C contingent resources. The company was formerly known as Hurricane Exploration plc and changed its name to Hurricane Energy plc in April 2013. Hurricane Energy plc was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Godalming, the United Kingdom.

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

Reliance Industries Ltd. manufactures petrochemicals, synthetic fibers, fiber intermediates, textiles, blended yarn and polyester staple fiber. The Company also owns a petroleum refinery cum petrochemicals complex in Jamnagar, India that produces a wide range of products such as gasoline, superior kerosene oil and liquefied petroleum gas.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation produces and trades petroleum and petrochemical products. The Company offers gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, ethylene, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, synthetic resins, and chemical fertilizers. China Petroleum & Chemical markets its products throughout China.

TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. TOTAL operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

Phillips 66 is a downstream energy company.  The Company's operations include oil refining, marketing and transportation.  Phillips 66's operations also include chemical manufacturing and power generation.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited specializes in the exploration and production of crude oil and gas. The Company has joint ventures in oil fields in Vietnam, Norway, Egypt, Tunisia, Iran and Australia. The Group's other activities include deep sea explorations on the east and west coasts of India, and the exploration of coal bed methane.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation refines, transports, and markets petroleum products. The Company sells its products to resellers and consumers in the mid-west, gulf coast, and southeast United States.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company engages in onshore oil and gas drilling, exploration and production in the United States.

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company with operations in countries located around the world.  The Company produces and transports crude oil and natural gas.  Chevron also refines, markets, and distributes fuels as well as is involved in chemical operations, mining operations, power generation and energy services.

EOG Resources, Inc. explores for, develops, produces and markets natural gas and crude oil. The Company operates in major producing basins in the United States, Canada, Trinidad, the United Kingdom North Sea, China and, from time to time, select other international areas.

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces fuels, chemicals, and lubricants. Shell serves clients worldwide.

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Shell PLC (SHEL LN)

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync. We see the bullish...

Vermilion Research

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 2

Oil PriceCrude prices fell through the week driven by concerns around continued US production growth and doubts about Russia's commitment to a...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Woodside Petroleum - USD1.7bn Block by Shell at the Juncture of LNG Oversupply

Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA LN) is selling USD1,704m shares in Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WPL AU), three years after its last sold down in 2014. In...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Int'l Equity Strategy: Buy Energy, Global Autos

Sector trends are telling a bullish narrative. Cyclical sectors continue to lead, with tech at the helm, and defensive segments still exhibit...

Vermilion Research

Energy Stocks Bottoming

We are seeing a majority of energy-related equities stage bullish price and RS reversals, emerging from bullish bases and breaking to multi-month...

Vermilion Research

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