Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shell’s Q4 2024 revenue and EPS are expected to decline 21.9% YoY and 35.1%, respectively. For fiscal 2024, forecasts project a 4.8% revenue drop and a 7.4% EPS decline.</li>
<li>Shell anticipates a USD 1.3 billion Q4 charge for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, alongside non-cash post-tax impairments ranging from USD 1.5 billion to USD 3 billion.</li>
<li>Shell forecasts flat refining margins at USD 5.5/bbl but a 16% QoQ drop in chemical margins to USD 138/tonne.</li>
</ul>


Shell’s Q4 2024 revenue and EPS are expected to decline 21.9% YoY and 35.1%, respectively. For fiscal 2024, forecasts project a 4.8% revenue drop and a 7.4% EPS decline.
Shell anticipates a USD 1.3 billion Q4 charge for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, alongside non-cash post-tax impairments ranging from USD 1.5 billion to USD 3 billion.
Shell forecasts flat refining margins at USD 5.5/bbl but a 16% QoQ drop in chemical margins to USD 138/tonne.


[Earnings Preview] Lower Gas Output and Tight Margins Hit Shell’s Q4 Outlook

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

<ul>
<li>Shell | 4Q24 trading update disappoints: In 4Q24, Shell posted 'significantly lower' results in its Integrated Gas, Chemical and Renewables divisions. This became clear on the back of the yesterday’s issued trading update.</li>
<li>Odido | IPO expected at some point in 1H25: According to Bloomberg, Apax Partners and Warburg Pincus have selected various banks for an intended IPO of Dutch telecom provider Odido at some point in 1H25.  </li>
</ul>


Shell | 4Q24 trading update disappoints: In 4Q24, Shell posted 'significantly lower' results in its Integrated Gas, Chemical and Renewables divisions. This became clear on the back of the yesterday’s issued trading update.
Odido | IPO expected at some point in 1H25: According to Bloomberg, Apax Partners and Warburg Pincus have selected various banks for an intended IPO of Dutch telecom provider Odido at some point in 1H25.  


What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 9 January 2025 (Shell | Odido)

<ul><li>In this edition: • Shell | gas joint venture with Equinor in the UK • InPost | Yodel hit by festive capacity crisis • BAM Group | awarded contracts for HS2 in the UK • Black Friday update | Cyber Monday was the busiest day for the parcel logistics providers</li></ul>

In this edition: • Shell | gas joint venture with Equinor in the UK • InPost | Yodel hit by festive capacity crisis • BAM Group | awarded contracts for HS2 in the UK • Black Friday update | Cyber Monday was the busiest day for the parcel logistics providers

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 6 December (Shell | InPost | BAM Group | Black Friday update)

<ul>
<li>Shell's Q2 revenue fell by 7.4% YoY and its adjusted earnings dropped by 3.1%. However, its revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations by 2.3% and 13.1%, respectively.</li>
<li>Shell’s free cash flow rose 44.4% YoY to USD 10.8 billion, while its net debt fell to its lowest since 2015, dropping by 13.1% YoY to USD 35.2 billion.</li>
<li>Shell’s LNG sales grew 6.4% YoY, while oil and gas production earnings rose 9% YoY, supported by a 3.1% production increase from new fields.</li>
</ul>


Shell's Q2 revenue fell by 7.4% YoY and its adjusted earnings dropped by 3.1%. However, its revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations by 2.3% and 13.1%, respectively.
Shell’s free cash flow rose 44.4% YoY to USD 10.8 billion, while its net debt fell to its lowest since 2015, dropping by 13.1% YoY to USD 35.2 billion.
Shell’s LNG sales grew 6.4% YoY, while oil and gas production earnings rose 9% YoY, supported by a 3.1% production increase from new fields.


[Earnings Review] Shell Exceeds Expectations as Robust LNG Sales Counter Weak Refining Margins

<ul>
<li>Shell will report Q3 earnings on 31/Oct, with analysts expecting a 10.8% YoY fall in revenue and a 2.7% drop in EPS, due to weaker crude prices and refining margins.</li>
<li>Shell's OI PCR at 0.61 signals neutral sentiment, while a 100% IV percentile indicates high volatility. Call OI clusters around strikes 67 and 70.</li>
<li>Shell’s short interest has fallen for three consecutive biweekly periods, reaching 4.46 million shares as of 15/Oct—a 16.2% fall from 30/Sep and 35.5% since 15/Jul.</li>
</ul>


Shell will report Q3 earnings on 31/Oct, with analysts expecting a 10.8% YoY fall in revenue and a 2.7% drop in EPS, due to weaker crude prices and refining margins.
Shell's OI PCR at 0.61 signals neutral sentiment, while a 100% IV percentile indicates high volatility. Call OI clusters around strikes 67 and 70.
Shell’s short interest has fallen for three consecutive biweekly periods, reaching 4.46 million shares as of 15/Oct—a 16.2% fall from 30/Sep and 35.5% since 15/Jul.


[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Shell’s IV Surges Ahead of Q3 Results; Short Interest Declines

United Kingdom

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces fuels, chemicals, and lubricants. Shell serves clients worldwide.

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Shell PLC (SHEL LN)

[Earnings Preview] Lower Gas Output and Tight Margins Hit Shell’s Q4 Outlook

Shell's Q4 2024 revenue and EPS expected to decline, with charges for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, and forecasts of flat refining...

Mint Finance

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 9 January 2025 (Shell | Odido)

In this edition: Shell | 4Q24 trading update disappoints; Odido | IPO expected at some point in 1H25

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 6 December (Shell | InPost | BAM Group | Black Friday update)

In this edition: • Shell | gas joint venture with Equinor in the UK • InPost | Yodel hit by festive capacity crisis • BAM Group | awarded...

The IDEA!

[Earnings Review] Shell Exceeds Expectations as Robust LNG Sales Counter Weak Refining Margins

Shell exceeded expectations, driven by robust LNG sales that offset weak commodity prices. Total hydrocarbon production increased 3.1% YoY....

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Shell’s IV Surges Ahead of Q3 Results; Short Interest Declines

Shell’s revenue and EPS are expected to decline in Q3 due to lower oil prices. Options data indicates high IV and OI PCR are still neutral. Short...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

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[Earnings Preview] Lower Gas Output and Tight Margins Hit Shell’s Q4 Outlook

​Shell's Q4 2024 revenue and EPS expected to decline, with charges for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, and forecasts of flat refining...

Mint Finance

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 9 January 2025 (Shell | Odido)

In this edition: Shell | 4Q24 trading update disappoints; Odido | IPO expected at some point in 1H25

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 6 December (Shell | InPost | BAM Group | Black Friday update)

In this edition: • Shell | gas joint venture with Equinor in the UK • InPost | Yodel hit by festive capacity crisis • BAM Group | awarded...

The IDEA!

[Earnings Review] Shell Exceeds Expectations as Robust LNG Sales Counter Weak Refining Margins

Shell exceeded expectations, driven by robust LNG sales that offset weak commodity prices. Total hydrocarbon production increased 3.1% YoY....

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Shell’s IV Surges Ahead of Q3 Results; Short Interest Declines

Shell’s revenue and EPS are expected to decline in Q3 due to lower oil prices. Options data indicates high IV and OI PCR are still neutral. Short...

Mint Finance

Shell's Q4 2024 revenue and EPS expected to decline, with charges for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, and forecasts of flat refining...