European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Macquarie's Bid for Renewi: Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share, valuing Renewi at £707 million, a 57% premium to the pre-offer price, with the deal structured as a scheme of arrangement.</li>
<li>Regulatory and Shareholder Support: 21.1% of Renewi shareholders, including major investors and directors, have given irrevocable undertakings to support the deal, pending approvals from EU, Belgian, and Chinese regulators.</li>
<li>Investment Outlook: At 853p, the gross spread is 2.0%, with an annualized return of ~5.5% if completed by Q2 2025. Market implies a 94.3% probability of success (break price 554p).</li>
</ul>


Macquarie's Bid for Renewi: Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share, valuing Renewi at £707 million, a 57% premium to the pre-offer price, with the deal structured as a scheme of arrangement.
Regulatory and Shareholder Support: 21.1% of Renewi shareholders, including major investors and directors, have given irrevocable undertakings to support the deal, pending approvals from EU, Belgian, and Chinese regulators.
Investment Outlook: At 853p, the gross spread is 2.0%, with an annualized return of ~5.5% if completed by Q2 2025. Market implies a 94.3% probability of success (break price 554p).


<ul>
<li>Macquarie's final offer of 870 pence per share represents a 57% premium over Renewi’s November 27, 2024, closing price, valuing the company at approximately €1.06 billion.</li>
<li>Macquarie secured irrevocable undertakings from major shareholders holding 15.1% of shares and aims to finalize the offer by January 23, 2025, pending due diligence.</li>
<li>The offer aligns closely with Renewi's intrinsic value, offering investors an attractive exit opportunity with a market-implied deal probability of 78.5%. Via Scheme, completion by end of March/early April.</li>
</ul>


Macquarie's final offer of 870 pence per share represents a 57% premium over Renewi’s November 27, 2024, closing price, valuing the company at approximately €1.06 billion.
Macquarie secured irrevocable undertakings from major shareholders holding 15.1% of shares and aims to finalize the offer by January 23, 2025, pending due diligence.
The offer aligns closely with Renewi's intrinsic value, offering investors an attractive exit opportunity with a market-implied deal probability of 78.5%. Via Scheme, completion by end of March/early April.


Event-Driven Investment Opportunities, Special Situation Investments

Special Situation Investments

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities

Focus on event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts

<ul>
<li>Macquarie Asset Management's final bid for Renewi is £8.7/share, with a current spread of 9% and a downside risk of 25%.</li>
<li>Three shareholders holding 15.1% of Renewi have signed irrevocable support agreements; confirmatory due diligence is ongoing.</li>
<li>Macquarie's offer values Renewi at 6.7x TTM adj. EBITDA, aligning with European peers' valuations, considering the control premium.</li>
</ul>


Macquarie Asset Management's final bid for Renewi is £8.7/share, with a current spread of 9% and a downside risk of 25%.
Three shareholders holding 15.1% of Renewi have signed irrevocable support agreements; confirmatory due diligence is ongoing.
Macquarie's offer values Renewi at 6.7x TTM adj. EBITDA, aligning with European peers' valuations, considering the control premium.


Macquarie's £8.7/share Bid for Renewi Supported by Key Shareholders Amid 9% Spread and Due Diligence Completion

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see up to five M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index in the run up to the June 2025 review. Many could be very high impact.</li>
<li>Separately, there could be one regular index change for the F250 index in June 2025. At present, we do not see any changes for the F100 index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We see up to five M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index in the run up to the June 2025 review. Many could be very high impact.
Separately, there could be one regular index change for the F250 index in June 2025. At present, we do not see any changes for the F100 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Reportedly buyout firms are "vying for" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a>. The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furukawa-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19521:1" rel="noopener">Furukawa (5715 JP)</a> has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.</li>
<li>While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International (200 HK)</a>'s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly buyout firms are "vying for" Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP). The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.

Furukawa (5715 JP) has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.
While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, Melco International (200 HK)'s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

United Kingdom

Renewi plc provides waste management services. The Company collects and recycles energy and fuel, paper, metal, plastic, glass, woodchips and compost, and other products. Renewi serves customers in Europe and North America.

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Renewi (RWI LN)

Macquarie/Renewi: Agreed Offer

Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share for Renewi, with strong shareholder support and positive investment outlook. Regulatory approvals...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Ahead of Macquarie's PUSU Deadline

Macquarie offers 870p per share for Renewi, a 57% premium, valuing the company at €1.06 billion. Major shareholders on board, deal expected by Jan...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

Most of the intra-review replacement candidates have well in excess of 10x ADV to buy if they get added to the F250 index. Some of these names...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Macquarie/Renewi: Agreed Offer

​Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share for Renewi, with strong shareholder support and positive investment outlook. Regulatory approvals...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Ahead of Macquarie's PUSU Deadline

​Macquarie offers 870p per share for Renewi, a 57% premium, valuing the company at €1.06 billion. Major shareholders on board, deal expected by Jan...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Macquarie's £8.7/share Bid for Renewi Supported by Key Shareholders Amid 9% Spread and Due Diligence Completion

Macquarie Asset Management's final bid for Renewi is £8.7/share, with a current spread of 9% and a downside risk of 25%.

Special Situation Investments

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

Most of the intra-review replacement candidates have well in excess of 10x ADV to buy if they get added to the F250 index. Some of these names...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share for Renewi, with strong shareholder support and positive investment outlook. Regulatory approvals...

Macquarie offers 870p per share for Renewi, a 57% premium, valuing the company at €1.06 billion. Major shareholders on board, deal expected by Jan...