European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Macquarie's Bid for Renewi: Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share, valuing Renewi at £707 million, a 57% premium to the pre-offer price, with the deal structured as a scheme of arrangement.</li>
<li>Regulatory and Shareholder Support: 21.1% of Renewi shareholders, including major investors and directors, have given irrevocable undertakings to support the deal, pending approvals from EU, Belgian, and Chinese regulators.</li>
<li>Investment Outlook: At 853p, the gross spread is 2.0%, with an annualized return of ~5.5% if completed by Q2 2025. Market implies a 94.3% probability of success (break price 554p).</li>
</ul>


Macquarie's Bid for Renewi: Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share, valuing Renewi at £707 million, a 57% premium to the pre-offer price, with the deal structured as a scheme of arrangement.
Regulatory and Shareholder Support: 21.1% of Renewi shareholders, including major investors and directors, have given irrevocable undertakings to support the deal, pending approvals from EU, Belgian, and Chinese regulators.
Investment Outlook: At 853p, the gross spread is 2.0%, with an annualized return of ~5.5% if completed by Q2 2025. Market implies a 94.3% probability of success (break price 554p).


<ul>
<li>Macquarie's final offer of 870 pence per share represents a 57% premium over Renewi’s November 27, 2024, closing price, valuing the company at approximately €1.06 billion.</li>
<li>Macquarie secured irrevocable undertakings from major shareholders holding 15.1% of shares and aims to finalize the offer by January 23, 2025, pending due diligence.</li>
<li>The offer aligns closely with Renewi's intrinsic value, offering investors an attractive exit opportunity with a market-implied deal probability of 78.5%. Via Scheme, completion by end of March/early April.</li>
</ul>


Macquarie's final offer of 870 pence per share represents a 57% premium over Renewi’s November 27, 2024, closing price, valuing the company at approximately €1.06 billion.
Macquarie secured irrevocable undertakings from major shareholders holding 15.1% of shares and aims to finalize the offer by January 23, 2025, pending due diligence.
The offer aligns closely with Renewi's intrinsic value, offering investors an attractive exit opportunity with a market-implied deal probability of 78.5%. Via Scheme, completion by end of March/early April.


Event-Driven Investment Opportunities, Special Situation Investments

Special Situation Investments

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities

Focus on event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts

<ul>
<li>Macquarie Asset Management's final bid for Renewi is £8.7/share, with a current spread of 9% and a downside risk of 25%.</li>
<li>Three shareholders holding 15.1% of Renewi have signed irrevocable support agreements; confirmatory due diligence is ongoing.</li>
<li>Macquarie's offer values Renewi at 6.7x TTM adj. EBITDA, aligning with European peers' valuations, considering the control premium.</li>
</ul>


Macquarie Asset Management's final bid for Renewi is £8.7/share, with a current spread of 9% and a downside risk of 25%.
Three shareholders holding 15.1% of Renewi have signed irrevocable support agreements; confirmatory due diligence is ongoing.
Macquarie's offer values Renewi at 6.7x TTM adj. EBITDA, aligning with European peers' valuations, considering the control premium.


Macquarie's £8.7/share Bid for Renewi Supported by Key Shareholders Amid 9% Spread and Due Diligence Completion

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see one M&amp;A-related intra-review change for the F250 index in the next few days.</li>
<li>Separately, our latest estimates suggest there could be two regular changes for the F250 index during the June 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We see one M&amp;A-related intra-review change for the F250 index in the next few days.
Separately, our latest estimates suggest there could be two regular changes for the F250 index during the June 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: One High-Impact Intra-Review Change Soon; More Changes Later

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see up to five M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index in the run up to the June 2025 review. Many could be <em>very</em> high impact.</li>
<li>Separately, there could be one regular index change for the F250 index in June 2025. At present, we do not see any changes for the F100 index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We see up to five M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index in the run up to the June 2025 review. Many could be very high impact.
Separately, there could be one regular index change for the F250 index in June 2025. At present, we do not see any changes for the F100 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

United Kingdom

Renewi plc provides waste management services. The Company collects and recycles energy and fuel, paper, metal, plastic, glass, woodchips and compost, and other products. Renewi serves customers in Europe and North America.

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Renewi (RWI LN)

Macquarie/Renewi: Agreed Offer

Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share for Renewi, with strong shareholder support and positive investment outlook. Regulatory approvals...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Ahead of Macquarie's PUSU Deadline

Macquarie offers 870p per share for Renewi, a 57% premium, valuing the company at €1.06 billion. Major shareholders on board, deal expected by Jan...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: One High-Impact Intra-Review Change Soon; More Changes Later

The International Distribution (IDS LN) deal could close soon and the name could get deleted in May 2025. The top-ranked replacement name is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

Most of the intra-review replacement candidates have well in excess of 10x ADV to buy if they get added to the F250 index. Some of these names...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Macquarie/Renewi: Agreed Offer

​Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share for Renewi, with strong shareholder support and positive investment outlook. Regulatory approvals...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Ahead of Macquarie's PUSU Deadline

​Macquarie offers 870p per share for Renewi, a 57% premium, valuing the company at €1.06 billion. Major shareholders on board, deal expected by Jan...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Macquarie's £8.7/share Bid for Renewi Supported by Key Shareholders Amid 9% Spread and Due Diligence Completion

Macquarie Asset Management's final bid for Renewi is £8.7/share, with a current spread of 9% and a downside risk of 25%.

Special Situation Investments

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: One High-Impact Intra-Review Change Soon; More Changes Later

The International Distribution (IDS LN) deal could close soon and the name could get deleted in May 2025. The top-ranked replacement name is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

Most of the intra-review replacement candidates have well in excess of 10x ADV to buy if they get added to the F250 index. Some of these names...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Macquarie-led consortium offers 870p per share for Renewi, with strong shareholder support and positive investment outlook. Regulatory approvals...

Macquarie offers 870p per share for Renewi, a 57% premium, valuing the company at €1.06 billion. Major shareholders on board, deal expected by Jan...