Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Foreign confidence remains a massive issue for investment and equity pricing.</li><li>Efforts for diplomatic damage control seem to be a cheap option when contrasted to the domestic issues related to adding more leverage to the system as an alternative.</li><li>Domestic confidence is arguably even lower with households seeing little light at the end of the tunnel. We can see why they won’t.</li></ul>

Foreign confidence remains a massive issue for investment and equity pricing.Efforts for diplomatic damage control seem to be a cheap option when contrasted to the domestic issues related to adding more leverage to the system as an alternative.Domestic confidence is arguably even lower with households seeing little light at the end of the tunnel. We can see why they won’t.

EM by EM #35:  China 2024: Keeping the Beast Alive

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.</li><li>We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.</li><li>Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.</li></ul>

We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Beijing steps up property support; risks being shifted to banks, longer-term downsizing to continue</li><li>Support measures should help a broader recovery in domestic demand, but this may take time</li><li>Structural drags remain: we expect annual growth to fall below 5% in 2024 and 2025</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Beijing steps up property support; risks being shifted to banks, longer-term downsizing to continueSupport measures should help a broader recovery in domestic demand, but this may take timeStructural drags remain: we expect annual growth to fall below 5% in 2024 and 2025Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Outlook 2024 - Navigating Between Cyclical and Structural Headwinds

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Now that the pandemic has passed, Yiling’s performance has to face a sharp decline due to the high base before, but in our view, the situation is not so bad.  </li>
<li>According to the management,sales of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products would gradually increase to make up for the sales decline of Lianhua Qingwen, which would still be higher than pre-pandemic level.</li>
<li>About 15-20% performance growth is still reachable in the future. PE of 20-30 is a reasonable range for Yiling. Being included in CSI 300 Index helps to improve the liquidity.</li>
</ul>


Now that the pandemic has passed, Yiling’s performance has to face a sharp decline due to the high base before, but in our view, the situation is not so bad.  
According to the management,sales of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products would gradually increase to make up for the sales decline of Lianhua Qingwen, which would still be higher than pre-pandemic level.
About 15-20% performance growth is still reachable in the future. PE of 20-30 is a reasonable range for Yiling. Being included in CSI 300 Index helps to improve the liquidity.


Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603.CH) - Valuation Rebound Is Worth Looking Forward To

China

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Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

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EM by EM #35: China 2024: Keeping the Beast Alive

We will be watching the Chinese credit impulse closely for clues on whether to take on positive bets on China and China proxies in 2024.

Steno Research

Five Things We Watch For In 2024

The thing to watch is probably employment numbers and once the labor markets start turning bad, expect CBs to cut in a hurry (especially if it is...

Steno Research

China Outlook 2024 - Navigating Between Cyclical and Structural Headwinds

Beijing steps up property support; risks being shifted to banks, longer-term downsizing to continue Support measures should help a broader...

ABN AMRO

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603.CH) - Valuation Rebound Is Worth Looking Forward To

Yiling’s performance faces a sharp decline without the pandemic catalyst, but the fundamentals are not that bad. Valuation is expected to bounce...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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