IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a> shares are trading 85.7% above <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/az-com-maruwa-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17280:1" rel="noopener">AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)</a> JPY3,000 offer due to the disclosure of four counterbidders. </li>
<li>The white knight “winning” bidder can secure the Board’s recommendation if it is the highest offer (likely well below the last close) and does not result in AZ-COM Maruwa-type dis-synergies. </li>
<li>AZ-COM Maruwa would face the dilemma of bumping, particularly if the white knight bidder secures irrevocables and the Board presents a compelling case to support the white knight bidder.</li>
</ul>



Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) shares are trading 85.7% above AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) JPY3,000 offer due to the disclosure of four counterbidders. 
The white knight “winning” bidder can secure the Board’s recommendation if it is the highest offer (likely well below the last close) and does not result in AZ-COM Maruwa-type dis-synergies. 
AZ-COM Maruwa would face the dilemma of bumping, particularly if the white knight bidder secures irrevocables and the Board presents a compelling case to support the white knight bidder.


Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): Irrational Exuberance Takes Hold

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Murakami-San now owns far more in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a> than he can easily get out of other than by corporate action. Murakami-san is not a dumb guy. He knows this.</li>
<li>The unique investigative shareholder register confirms what has been long rumoured about a certain shareholder activist in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>. It is also informative for what isn't present.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>'s discount to NAV and implied stub widened after Fabricio Bloisi's CEO appointment the previous week. But the sell-down of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> to buy-back Prosus will continue.</li>
</ul>


Murakami-San now owns far more in Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) than he can easily get out of other than by corporate action. Murakami-san is not a dumb guy. He knows this.
The unique investigative shareholder register confirms what has been long rumoured about a certain shareholder activist in L'Occitane (973 HK). It is also informative for what isn't present.

Prosus (PRX NA)'s discount to NAV and implied stub widened after Fabricio Bloisi's CEO appointment the previous week. But the sell-down of Tencent (700 HK) to buy-back Prosus will continue.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, L'Occitane, Prosus/Tencent, EOFlow

<ul>
<li>I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Carlyle's tiult for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sciclone-pharmaceuticals-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17351:1" rel="noopener">SciClone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Carlyle's tiult for KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP). Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
Key updates took place on: Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), L'Occitane (973 HK), BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)/ Anglo American (AAL LN), and SciClone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: KFC Holdings Japan, Shanghai Henlius, Alumina, BHP/ Anglo American, SciClone

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>In late March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/az-com-maruwa-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17280:1" rel="noopener">AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)</a> made an unsolicited ("hostile") bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a> at a near 50% premium at ¥3,000/share.</li>
<li>It traded through, then C&amp;F ran a bid solicitation process, got four bids. Since the day AFTER that announcement, the stock is up 56%. We approach Alps Logistics multiples.</li>
<li>This deal doesn't get the split price benefit that HTS and Alps Logistics did. And it is a fundamentally different logistics business. And target management dynamics are different.</li>
</ul>


In late March, AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) made an unsolicited ("hostile") bid for Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) at a near 50% premium at ¥3,000/share.
It traded through, then C&amp;F ran a bid solicitation process, got four bids. Since the day AFTER that announcement, the stock is up 56%. We approach Alps Logistics multiples.
This deal doesn't get the split price benefit that HTS and Alps Logistics did. And it is a fundamentally different logistics business. And target management dynamics are different.


Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) Gone Ballistic - Reminder of Structure, Price, and Incentives

<ul>
<li>The Offering priced today at ¥7,338/share vs ¥8,039/share traded at the close on the day of the announcement. That's an 8.7% discount for no dilution. </li>
<li>Compared to a broad basket of Peer Baskets (yes, a basket of baskets), the stock has underperformed by 4.2%, and the 3% discount today puts it at 7+% move.</li>
<li>Given the relative cheapness, one should be comfortable putting this on if it gets sold off. This is not different to my initial opinion.</li>
</ul>


The Offering priced today at ¥7,338/share vs ¥8,039/share traded at the close on the day of the announcement. That's an 8.7% discount for no dilution. 
Compared to a broad basket of Peer Baskets (yes, a basket of baskets), the stock has underperformed by 4.2%, and the 3% discount today puts it at 7+% move.
Given the relative cheapness, one should be comfortable putting this on if it gets sold off. This is not different to my initial opinion.


Nippon Express (9147 JP) - Buying the Overhang

Japan

SG Holdings Co., Ltd. offers courier services. The Company provides goods delivery, cargo logistics, goods pickup, and other services. SG Holdings also operates real estate development, human resources management, and other businesses.

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SG Holdings (9143 JP)

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): Irrational Exuberance Takes Hold

The shares have reached stratospheric levels on the expectation of a bidding frenzy. However, a white knight “winning” bidder would struggle to...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, L'Occitane, Prosus/Tencent, EOFlow

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: KFC Holdings Japan, Shanghai Henlius, Alumina, BHP/ Anglo American, SciClone

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) Gone Ballistic - Reminder of Structure, Price, and Incentives

C&F Logistics is now up 175% from pre-AZ-Com bid, and up 83% vs the AZ-Com bid which was up 50% from undisturbed. I don't think bidders need to go...

Travis Lundy

Nippon Express (9147 JP) - Buying the Overhang

NX (9147) saw its Offering price today. It priced down nearly 9% from pre-announcement. No dilution, and net mitigants are half the offering. It...

Travis Lundy

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