IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T priced its IPO at a fixed price of HK$12.00 per share to raise the gross proceeds of the offering of US$500 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:115216" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO price.  </li>
</ul>


J&amp;T priced its IPO at a fixed price of HK$12.00 per share to raise the gross proceeds of the offering of US$500 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights.
The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO price.  


Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a>, a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation. </li>
<li>According to CIC, Cainiao is the world’s leading cross-border e-commerce logistics company regarding parcel volume in 2022, with one of the world’s largest logistics networks in terms of geographic reach.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on market share gains in China, improving performance of the largest business (international logistics), and rising gross and operating margins. </li>
</ul>



Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK), a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation. 
According to CIC, Cainiao is the world’s leading cross-border e-commerce logistics company regarding parcel volume in 2022, with one of the world’s largest logistics networks in terms of geographic reach.
The bull case rests on market share gains in China, improving performance of the largest business (international logistics), and rising gross and operating margins. 


Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, has launched a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million at a fixed price of HK$12.00.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-updates-tilts-the-balance-positively" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:114387" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively</a>. 
</li>
<li>The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, has launched a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million at a fixed price of HK$12.00.
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively. 

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.


J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, Free Float Weight (FFW) will be reduced on 284 stocks and increased on 458 stocks. 43 stocks will be removed from Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 1.77% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.45tn. 364 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 97 stocks have over 8 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Over the last 6 months, the stocks with inflows (&gt;US$25m) have outperformed the stocks with outflows (&gt;US$25m) with most of the outperformance coming in the last three months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, Free Float Weight (FFW) will be reduced on 284 stocks and increased on 458 stocks. 43 stocks will be removed from Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.77% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.45tn. 364 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 97 stocks have over 8 days ADV to trade.
Over the last 6 months, the stocks with inflows (&gt;US$25m) have outperformed the stocks with outflows (&gt;US$25m) with most of the outperformance coming in the last three months.


TOPIX October 2023 Rebalance: Round Trip Trade of US$20bn; Upweights Outperform Downweights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a>, the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, has filed for an H Share listing to raise US$2-3 billion, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>SF is the largest integrated logistics service player in China and Asia, and the fourth largest player globally, in terms of revenue in 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</li>
<li>The key elements of the investment case rest on the primary business’ improving fundamentals, margin trajectory, cash generation, modest leverage and undemanding PEG multiples.</li>
</ul>



S.F. Holding (002352 CH), the largest Asian integrated logistics service provider, has filed for an H Share listing to raise US$2-3 billion, according to press reports.   
SF is the largest integrated logistics service player in China and Asia, and the fourth largest player globally, in terms of revenue in 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.
The key elements of the investment case rest on the primary business’ improving fundamentals, margin trajectory, cash generation, modest leverage and undemanding PEG multiples.


S.F. Holding H Share Listing: The Investment Case

Japan

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides door-to-door parcel delivery services. The Company has developed a nationwide delivery system specializing in time-specified delivery. Yamato Holdings offers moving services and other comprehensive transportation services including logistics services for both domestic and overseas customers as well as financial and autoworks services.

Nippon Express Holdings, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides freight vehicle transportation, railway transportation, air transportation, sea transportation, port transportation, warehousing, and other services. Nippon Express Holdings provides its services throughout Japan.

Maruwa Unyu Kikan Co. Ltd. provides logistical transportation services. The Company conducts normal temperature logistics, low-temperature food distribution, and pharmaceuticals and medical logistics. Maruwa Unyu Kikan also provides logistics consulting and warehousing services.

Konoike Transport Co Ltd operates production and distribution processes and plant equipment installation service at clients' work cites. Clients range from the basic materials industry to consumer staples, airline and medical industries. The company also operates logistics business domestically and intern ationally.

MITSUI-SOKO Holdings Co., Ltd. provides warehousing and marine, land, and air freight transportation services.  The Company also operates a real estate business of leasing its own land and buildings.

SBS Holdings, Inc. provides integrated logistic services. The Company's services include one-stop marketing such as logistic consulting, logistic management and logistic development, special transportation, and low-temperature logistic. SBS Holdings also offers human resources and information technologies services.

Yasuda Logistics Corp operates warehouses in Tokyo, Yokohama, and their surrounding areas.  The Company also provides trucking services, handles marine cargo, and leases real estate.  The Yasuda Warehouse operates international air, land, and sea intermodal transportation as well.

The Shibusawa Warehouse Co., Ltd. provides warehousing and inland and marine transportation services.  The Company also provides moving services and international transportation services.  The Shibusawa Warehouse operates real estate leasing businesses as well.

AIT CORPORATION provides comprehensive international cargo and container booking services.  The Company mainly operates its business in Japan, China and other major Asian cities.

Chuo Warehouse Co., Ltd., based in Kyoto prefecture, is a warehouse operator specializing in storage of synthetic textiles.  The Company handles imported cargo and operates its business in the Tokai and Tokyo areas as well.

Hyundai Glovis Co., Ltd. provides domestic and international logistic services. The Company's services include domestic transportation, storage, packaging, vehicle logistic, and logistic consulting.  GLOVIS also runs automobile auction market for used vehicle.

Mainfreight Limited provides and supplies freight, warehousing and logistics services throughout New Zealand and Australia.  The Company provides freight forwarding services by road, rail, sea and air along with providing international freight forwarding services, customs clearance services and specialized handling of hazardous substances.

Financiere de l'Odet is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers transport and international logistics, the distribution of energy, the production of plastic films and thin paper, the manufacture of specialized terminals and systems, and the management of investments in plantations and in other market areas, including media and communication.

International Distributions Services plc provides postal and delivery services. The Company offers letter and parcel delivery services. International Distributions Services serves consumers, sole traders, SMEs, large businesses, and access operators worldwide.

International Distributions Services (IDS LN)

Sinotrans Limited provides integrated logistics services with core service of sea, air, rail and road freight forwarding, express services and shipping agency services.  The Company also provides support services of storage and terminal services, trucking and marine transportation services.

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides aircraft, crew, commercial and military charter, maintenance, and insurance freighter aircraft to major airlines around the world.

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc (AAWW US)

Hub Group, Inc. is a full-service transportation provider, offering intermodal, truck brokerage, and logistics services.  The Company arranges for the movement of its customers' freight in containers and trailers over long distances.  Hub Group operates through a nationwide network of hubs, located near significant concentrations of shipping customers and railheads.

Yunda Holding Co Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides industrial investment, enterprise management, business consulting, car rental, technical development, information technology, and advertising services. Yunda Holding serves customers in China.

Compania de Distribucion Integral Logista Holdings, S.A. operates as an international logistical solution provider. The Company offers logistics, parcel and express courier transport, industrial parcel transport, and long distance and full truck load transport management services.

ID Logistics Group offers various logistics services. The Company provides warehousing, supply chain, storage and transportation solutions.

SG Holdings Co., Ltd. offers courier services. The Company provides goods delivery, cargo logistics, goods pickup, and other services. SG Holdings also operates real estate development, human resources management, and other businesses.

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SG Holdings (9143 JP)

J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO...

Arun George

Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on market share gains in China, improving performance of the largest business (international logistics), and rising gross and...

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

Arun George

TOPIX October 2023 Rebalance: Round Trip Trade of US$20bn; Upweights Outperform Downweights

There are FFW changes for 700+ stocks and changes to the Phased Weight Reduction list. Round trip trade is around US$20bn and there is over 8 days...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO...

Arun George

Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on market share gains in China, improving performance of the largest business (international logistics), and rising gross and...

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

Arun George

TOPIX October 2023 Rebalance: Round Trip Trade of US$20bn; Upweights Outperform Downweights

There are FFW changes for 700+ stocks and changes to the Phased Weight Reduction list. Round trip trade is around US$20bn and there is over 8 days...

Brian Freitas

S.F. Holding H Share Listing: The Investment Case

The key elements of the investment case rest on the primary business’ improving fundamentals, margin trajectory, cash generation, modest leverage...

Arun George