Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Petroleo Brasileiro  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our neutral outlook has come down to price supports holding on the broad global indexes, including $54 on MSCI ACWIex-US (ACWX-US), $76.50 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>These support levels are now breaking which tilts our stance to bearish at the index level as long as the aforementioned indexes remain below their previous support levels.</li>
<li>We still see the EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX as holding above support, while the Hang Seng and Bovespa appear to be bottoming, none of which paint a bearish picture.</li>
</ul>


Our neutral outlook has come down to price supports holding on the broad global indexes, including $54 on MSCI ACWIex-US (ACWX-US), $76.50 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI (ACWI-US).
These support levels are now breaking which tilts our stance to bearish at the index level as long as the aforementioned indexes remain below their previous support levels.
We still see the EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX as holding above support, while the Hang Seng and Bovespa appear to be bottoming, none of which paint a bearish picture.


Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Convenience stores are bouncing back after a difficult 18 months, aided by efforts to find new ways to meet demand for home deliveries.</li>
<li>While conbini are ideally placed to do this, their less flexible business model means that competitors like food delivery companies are making the first moves.</li>
<li>These firms are already setting up dark stores for local deliveries and could grow into a new form of competition for convenience stores and local supermarkets.</li>
</ul>


Convenience stores are bouncing back after a difficult 18 months, aided by efforts to find new ways to meet demand for home deliveries.
While conbini are ideally placed to do this, their less flexible business model means that competitors like food delivery companies are making the first moves.
These firms are already setting up dark stores for local deliveries and could grow into a new form of competition for convenience stores and local supermarkets.


Home Delivery Next Evolution for Japan's Conbini Sector?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> has climbed above the June 2021 peak for the first time in seven months despite weaknesses in the overall market.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported yesterday that 3 of the top 30 long term investors have requested Seven &amp; I to get rid of underperforming businesses.</li>
<li>Although the company brushed off previous attempts by activist investors, the pressure from long term investors could tip the scales and force Seven &amp; I to focus on convenience stores.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) has climbed above the June 2021 peak for the first time in seven months despite weaknesses in the overall market.
Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported yesterday that 3 of the top 30 long term investors have requested Seven &amp; I to get rid of underperforming businesses.
Although the company brushed off previous attempts by activist investors, the pressure from long term investors could tip the scales and force Seven &amp; I to focus on convenience stores.


Seven & I: Activist & Long Term Investors Riled Up Yet Again

<ul>
<li>The government has promised consumers price inflation for almost a decade now but the only real result of this policy is that we’ve seen record levels of household saving. </li>
<li>Now, however, supply chain and other issues are quickly beginning to force up prices of basic products and these increases are having a real impact on household budgets.</li>
<li>How long this situation may last is the big question but the focus on price means discount food retailers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobe-bussan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4701:1" rel="noopener">Kobe Bussan (3038 JP)</a> are likely to boom.</li>
</ul>


The government has promised consumers price inflation for almost a decade now but the only real result of this policy is that we’ve seen record levels of household saving. 
Now, however, supply chain and other issues are quickly beginning to force up prices of basic products and these increases are having a real impact on household budgets.
How long this situation may last is the big question but the focus on price means discount food retailers like Kobe Bussan (3038 JP) are likely to boom.


Japanese Households Focus on Price as Inflation Fears Spike

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A positive earnings surprise for Fast Retailing and Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard hitting Sony have hurt the performance of our skew trade. </li>
<li>Despite this, the dramatic fall in the Nikkei means it is now outperforming the Nikkei since we first suggested the trade. </li>
<li>Looking forward we expect recent volatility to be absorbed over time and we retain conviction on our picks.</li>
</ul>


A positive earnings surprise for Fast Retailing and Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard hitting Sony have hurt the performance of our skew trade. 
Despite this, the dramatic fall in the Nikkei means it is now outperforming the Nikkei since we first suggested the trade. 
Looking forward we expect recent volatility to be absorbed over time and we retain conviction on our picks.


TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade Hit by Sony and Fast Retailing but Outperforming Nikkei

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

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Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

We are highlighting Energy again because it is easily our favorite Sector. Additionally, defensive Sectors including Staples and Utilities display...

Vermilion Research

Home Delivery Next Evolution for Japan's Conbini Sector?

Food delivery is evolving fast in Japan but not just for takeaways. Local delivery of essentials by food delivery firms is becoming a new source of...

Michael Causton

Seven & I: Activist & Long Term Investors Riled Up Yet Again

We also think it will be difficult for Seven & I to brush off the current investor activism campaign, especially considering that it is likely to...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japanese Households Focus on Price as Inflation Fears Spike

Pressure on household budgets from rising prices – real and perceived – are causing Japanese consumers to focus even further on prices. This will...

Michael Causton

TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade Hit by Sony and Fast Retailing but Outperforming Nikkei

Volatility in Fast Retailing and Sony have hurt the performance of our skew trade but looking forward we expect recent volatility to be absorbed...

Mio Kato

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