Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With OP up by 22% YoY to beat the consensus estimate by ¥2.0bn, Seven &amp; I turned in a strong 2QFY23 along with a considerable upgrade to FY23 guidance.</li>
<li>However, the post-earnings price reaction seems to suggest that the market is a bit worried about the short-term performance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>’s US convenience store business.</li>
<li>In addition, the struggling non-core businesses whose future remains undecided could also be weighing in on Seven &amp; I’s price performance.</li>
</ul>


With OP up by 22% YoY to beat the consensus estimate by ¥2.0bn, Seven &amp; I turned in a strong 2QFY23 along with a considerable upgrade to FY23 guidance.
However, the post-earnings price reaction seems to suggest that the market is a bit worried about the short-term performance of Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)’s US convenience store business.
In addition, the struggling non-core businesses whose future remains undecided could also be weighing in on Seven &amp; I’s price performance.


Seven & I – The US Is About to Hit the Brakes

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>1H results, OP up +26% YoY, were good but in line with the recent Nikkei preview. </li>
<li>The U.S. convenience store operation was the standout performer and the reason for the full year guidance raise</li>
<li>We remain bullish on the stock. It is just too cheap relative to global peers</li>
</ul>


1H results, OP up +26% YoY, were good but in line with the recent Nikkei preview. 
The U.S. convenience store operation was the standout performer and the reason for the full year guidance raise
We remain bullish on the stock. It is just too cheap relative to global peers


Seven & I (3382) | U.S. Gas Margins Offset Rising Energy Costs at Home

<ul>
<li>After raising guidance yet again in 1QFY23 through stronger than expected performance in the overseas business, Seven &amp; I is scheduled to release Q2 results on 6th October 2022.</li>
<li>We are optimistic that 2QFY23 could provide the platform for Seven &amp; I to break the ¥6,100 level, at which the share-price has been stuck for the first 9-months 2022.</li>
<li>This is because, we are seeing a significant improvement in Seven &amp; I’s domestic performance while, North America is carrying the growth momentum that been there since the Speedway-acquisition.</li>
</ul>


After raising guidance yet again in 1QFY23 through stronger than expected performance in the overseas business, Seven &amp; I is scheduled to release Q2 results on 6th October 2022.
We are optimistic that 2QFY23 could provide the platform for Seven &amp; I to break the ¥6,100 level, at which the share-price has been stuck for the first 9-months 2022.
This is because, we are seeing a significant improvement in Seven &amp; I’s domestic performance while, North America is carrying the growth momentum that been there since the Speedway-acquisition.


Seven & I: More Upside as Momentum Turns Positive in the Domestic Market

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OK Super is today the biggest single chain of supermarkets in Tokyo with a strong customer following thanks to its low prices.</li>
<li>It still aims to be the cheapest store in any local area, backed by aggressive buying and low cost operations, and will expand store openings this year.</li>
<li>Although it is a private company, it is a serious competitor to any listed supermarket chain in the Kanto area.</li>
</ul>


OK Super is today the biggest single chain of supermarkets in Tokyo with a strong customer following thanks to its low prices.
It still aims to be the cheapest store in any local area, backed by aggressive buying and low cost operations, and will expand store openings this year.
Although it is a private company, it is a serious competitor to any listed supermarket chain in the Kanto area.


<ul>
<li>With OP up by 32.1% YoY, 1QFY23 was the first genuine sign of the realisation of synergies from the Speedway acquisition.</li>
<li>There could be more good news on the horizon as various news outlets have reported that the sale of Sogo Seibu is moving closer.</li>
<li>Yet we are neutral on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> in the short-term. We think investors needs to see the true colours of synergies for shares to break ¥6,100.</li>
</ul>


With OP up by 32.1% YoY, 1QFY23 was the first genuine sign of the realisation of synergies from the Speedway acquisition.
There could be more good news on the horizon as various news outlets have reported that the sale of Sogo Seibu is moving closer.
Yet we are neutral on Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) in the short-term. We think investors needs to see the true colours of synergies for shares to break ¥6,100.


Seven & I: Positives All Around But Upside Is Limited

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

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Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Seven & I – The US Is About to Hit the Brakes

With OP up by 22% YoY to beat the consensus estimate by more than ¥2.0bn, Seven & I turned in a strong quarter yet again in 2QFY23 along with a...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Seven & I (3382) | U.S. Gas Margins Offset Rising Energy Costs at Home

Strong 1H results and upward revision to full year guidance. SEI remains the key earnings driver and group valuations should rise to global peers...

Mark Chadwick

Seven & I: More Upside as Momentum Turns Positive in the Domestic Market

Sentiment seems to be turning positive on the domestic convenience store business with strong domestic demand and a possibility for a return of...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

OK Super: Winning in Inflation Era

OK Corporation runs Japan's most successful discount supermarket operation and is a benchmark to measure its listed competitors. It is likely to...

Michael Causton

Seven & I: Positives All Around But Upside Is Limited

As the US growth cool down, we remain neutral on Seven & I in the short term. We think investors would need to see the true colours of Speedway...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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