Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> vs MOL and NYK. The shares are cheap on a forward basis. KLine is reducing the Real World Float, causing further potential squeeze.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sabana-industrial-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:911:1" rel="noopener">Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)</a>'s Partial Offer at 0.88x book is not overwhelming, but it is also not a control stake. It is probably priced near-right.</li>
<li>IF <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/osstem-implant-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1450:1" rel="noopener">Osstem (048260 KS)</a>'s price were to go higher, it is conceivable there could be a bump, but don't bet on it as long as the stock trades &lt;KRW 190,000. </li>
</ul>


Be long Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) vs MOL and NYK. The shares are cheap on a forward basis. KLine is reducing the Real World Float, causing further potential squeeze.

Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)'s Partial Offer at 0.88x book is not overwhelming, but it is also not a control stake. It is probably priced near-right.
IF Osstem (048260 KS)'s price were to go higher, it is conceivable there could be a bump, but don't bet on it as long as the stock trades &lt;KRW 190,000. 


Last Week in SPACE: Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Osstem, Fujitsu General, Adani Enterprises

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>New York-based hedge fund ValueAct has told <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>’s shareholders to support them in their bid to spin off the 7-Eleven US convenience store business.</li>
<li>Spinning off the only growth driver of the business does not seem like an idea that Seven &amp; I or its shareholders are likely to entertain.</li>
<li>We fear that ValueAct could be looking for reasons to call-off its investor-activism-campaign and perhaps is trying to squeeze out every last bit of gains as it exits its positions.</li>
</ul>


New York-based hedge fund ValueAct has told Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)’s shareholders to support them in their bid to spin off the 7-Eleven US convenience store business.
Spinning off the only growth driver of the business does not seem like an idea that Seven &amp; I or its shareholders are likely to entertain.
We fear that ValueAct could be looking for reasons to call-off its investor-activism-campaign and perhaps is trying to squeeze out every last bit of gains as it exits its positions.


Seven & I: Activist ValueAct Seeking a Spin-Off of The US Business

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX down 3 in a Row as  Fed Hawks out in force; Oil bucks trend ;  P&amp;G see weak sales; Musk makes it up on TESLA's self driving</li>
<li>JAPAN: Kishida Cabinet approval at record lows;  Activist ValueAct tgts S&amp;i(3382); Spate of Street upgrades to BUY incl General Contractors at MS; Japan CPI on tap.</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET: Could be Nothing Burger but the costs of US default is rising as Debt Limit hit.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX down 3 in a Row as  Fed Hawks out in force; Oil bucks trend ;  P&amp;G see weak sales; Musk makes it up on TESLA's self driving
JAPAN: Kishida Cabinet approval at record lows;  Activist ValueAct tgts S&amp;i(3382); Spate of Street upgrades to BUY incl General Contractors at MS; Japan CPI on tap.
DAILY NUGGET: Could be Nothing Burger but the costs of US default is rising as Debt Limit hit.


Good Morning Japan |Fed Hawks Return; Earnings Weigh; ValueAct Tgts S&I(3382); Spate of JP BUY U/Gs

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei traded up half a percentage point this week, while the JPY strengthened 3% to Y127/$</li>
<li>US stocks (and hence global) rallied after data showed that inflation cooled in December, easing pressure on the Fed. </li>
<li>Lower inflation, interest rates, and China's reopening are providing a decent backdrop for Japanese equities</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei traded up half a percentage point this week, while the JPY strengthened 3% to Y127/$
US stocks (and hence global) rallied after data showed that inflation cooled in December, easing pressure on the Fed. 
Lower inflation, interest rates, and China's reopening are providing a decent backdrop for Japanese equities


Japan Weekly | Tokyo Electron, 7&I, Fast Retail

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>'s Q3 OP of ¥160.1bn was a significant surprise to the upside with consensus OP at ¥130.2bn and us expecting around ¥125-130bn.</li>
<li>This was mostly driven by an unexpected upside to the retail fuel margin while gasoline prices have come down by more than 34%.</li>
<li>Nevertheless, we would expect this temporary misalignment in retail fuel margin to correct over the next few quarters, resulting in around 35-40% downside to the company’s valuation multiples.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)'s Q3 OP of ¥160.1bn was a significant surprise to the upside with consensus OP at ¥130.2bn and us expecting around ¥125-130bn.
This was mostly driven by an unexpected upside to the retail fuel margin while gasoline prices have come down by more than 34%.
Nevertheless, we would expect this temporary misalignment in retail fuel margin to correct over the next few quarters, resulting in around 35-40% downside to the company’s valuation multiples.


Seven & I’s Valuation Nears Breaking Point

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

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Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Last Week in SPACE: Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Osstem, Fujitsu General, Adani Enterprises

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Seven & I: Activist ValueAct Seeking a Spin-Off of The US Business

Following a recent media report that the company received an acquisition proposal, Value Act has hinted about a possible or even probable buyout...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Good Morning Japan |Fed Hawks Return; Earnings Weigh; ValueAct Tgts S&I(3382); Spate of JP BUY U/Gs

Fed Hawks out in full force; Kishida Cabinet approval at record lows; Activist tgts S&i(3382); Spate of Street upgrades to BUY incl General...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Weekly | Tokyo Electron, 7&I, Fast Retail

We highlight stocks that have impacted the Japanese market this week. Overall, equities were buoyed by a softening of US inflation rates and...

Mark Chadwick

Seven & I’s Valuation Nears Breaking Point

Much to our surprise, 7-Eleven’s retail fuel margin rose by 4.3 cents QoQ to exceed our estimate by 7.7 cents per gallon and lifted the segment’s...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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