Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We estimate Vision Fund portfolio companies lost $2.1bn in value in Q3 as upside from new listings was not enough to offset valuation losses from the current portfolio.</li>
<li>A strong debut for SenseTime boosted Q3 gains by $2.3bn and +$1.7bn this week. That takes the sting out of weak Didi Q3 results but China remains a challenge. </li>
<li>Shares trade at a 49% discount to NAV because investment losses both lower NAV and boost balance sheet concerns. </li>
</ul>


We estimate Vision Fund portfolio companies lost $2.1bn in value in Q3 as upside from new listings was not enough to offset valuation losses from the current portfolio.
A strong debut for SenseTime boosted Q3 gains by $2.3bn and +$1.7bn this week. That takes the sting out of weak Didi Q3 results but China remains a challenge. 
Shares trade at a 49% discount to NAV because investment losses both lower NAV and boost balance sheet concerns. 


Softbank Group - SenseTime Rally Offsets Some of China Weakness but Q3 Vision Fund in the Red

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

SenseTime Group  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>SenseTime raised HK$5,552m at HK$3.85 per share, at the lower end of the IPO price range of HK$3.85-3.99 at a market cap and post-money EV of HK$128.1bn and HK$112.4bn respectively.</li>
<li>SenseTime delayed its IPO after it was included in a US investment blacklist and relaunched the IPO last week without the US investors and some additional disclosures to risk factors.</li>
<li>The HK offering was oversubscribed by 5.18x and the international offering by only 1.5x. We think the exclusion of US investors from the IPO led to poor international subscription.</li>
</ul>


SenseTime raised HK$5,552m at HK$3.85 per share, at the lower end of the IPO price range of HK$3.85-3.99 at a market cap and post-money EV of HK$128.1bn and HK$112.4bn respectively.
SenseTime delayed its IPO after it was included in a US investment blacklist and relaunched the IPO last week without the US investors and some additional disclosures to risk factors.
The HK offering was oversubscribed by 5.18x and the international offering by only 1.5x. We think the exclusion of US investors from the IPO led to poor international subscription.


SenseTime IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> (STG) raised US$741m at HK$3.85 per share, the bottom end of its IPO price range.</li>
<li>SenseTime Group (STG) is a leading AI software company. We think that STG’s fast growth masks the volatile nature of STG’s business.</li>
<li>Given the current market condition, we are inclined to believe STG can trade closer to the low-end of our fair value estimate.</li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (20 HK) (STG) raised US$741m at HK$3.85 per share, the bottom end of its IPO price range.
SenseTime Group (STG) is a leading AI software company. We think that STG’s fast growth masks the volatile nature of STG’s business.
Given the current market condition, we are inclined to believe STG can trade closer to the low-end of our fair value estimate.


SenseTime Group (商汤集团) IPO Trading - Poor Sentiment and Demand

<ul>
<li>SenseTime is Asia’s largest AI software company and China’s largest computer vision software provider. The company has relaunched its IPO following the US blacklisting of the company.</li>
<li>The company hasn’t changed its plans of raising approx. US$767m by issuing 1.5bn shares at an indicative IPO price range of HK$3.85-3.99 per share.</li>
<li>SenseTime had amended its previous IPO prospectus to exclude the US investors from subscribing to the IPO and offered an update on the regulatory development in the US.</li>
</ul>


SenseTime is Asia’s largest AI software company and China’s largest computer vision software provider. The company has relaunched its IPO following the US blacklisting of the company.
The company hasn’t changed its plans of raising approx. US$767m by issuing 1.5bn shares at an indicative IPO price range of HK$3.85-3.99 per share.
SenseTime had amended its previous IPO prospectus to exclude the US investors from subscribing to the IPO and offered an update on the regulatory development in the US.


SenseTime Relaunches IPO Without US Investors and Higher Cornerstone Funding from the State

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (1475539D HK)</a> has relaunched its HKEx IPO with an unchanged IPO price range and target raise of up to US$768 million. Pricing is set for 23 December.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sensetime-ipo-initiation-big-brother" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:62104" rel="noopener">SenseTime IPO Initiation: Big Brother</a>, we stated that the negatives outweigh the positives and we would give the IPO a pass.</li>
<li>Our base-case DCF value is HK$3.48 per share, -11% below the mid-point of the IPO price range. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price remains unattractive.   </li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (1475539D HK) has relaunched its HKEx IPO with an unchanged IPO price range and target raise of up to US$768 million. Pricing is set for 23 December.
In SenseTime IPO Initiation: Big Brother, we stated that the negatives outweigh the positives and we would give the IPO a pass.
Our base-case DCF value is HK$3.48 per share, -11% below the mid-point of the IPO price range. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price remains unattractive.   


SenseTime IPO: Relaunched but Remains a Pass

China

SenseTime Group Inc. offers information technology services. The Company develops artificial intelligence software products, computer vision software products, and other products. SenseTime Group provides its services throughout China.

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SenseTime Group (20 HK)

Softbank Group - SenseTime Rally Offsets Some of China Weakness but Q3 Vision Fund in the Red

A strong public debut for SenseTime boosted Vision Fund performance after Didi released dismal results but the portfolio is likely in the red for...

Kirk Boodry

SenseTime IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading

SenseTime priced its IPO at HK$3.85 per share, at the lower end of the IPO price range. Shares are still expensive even after priced at the bottom,...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

SenseTime Group (商汤集团) IPO Trading - Poor Sentiment and Demand

SenseTime raised US$741m at HK$3.85 per share, the bottom end of its IPO price range .Given the current market condition, we believe STG will trade...

Sumeet Singh

SenseTime Relaunches IPO Without US Investors and Higher Cornerstone Funding from the State

SenseTime has relaunched its IPO without US investors, higher cornerstone funding and with an update on the US regulatory development. The company...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

SenseTime IPO: Relaunched but Remains a Pass

SenseTime has relaunched its HKEx IPO with an unchanged IPO price range and target raise of up to US$768 million. Our DCF sensitivity analysis...

Arun George

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