Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a>'s Free-Float Adjustment Factor (FAF) increases from 3% to 40% following lock-up expiry and the stock will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-pacific-insurance-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6177:1" rel="noopener">China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>. </li>
<li>Using prices from the close on 19 August, estimated one-way turnover is 3.82% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$2,751m at the close on 2 September.</li>
<li>Increase in the FAF on a couple of stocks saves them from index deletion in September but is probably not enough to save them from index deletion in December.</li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (20 HK)'s Free-Float Adjustment Factor (FAF) increases from 3% to 40% following lock-up expiry and the stock will replace China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK) in the HSCEI INDEX. 
Using prices from the close on 19 August, estimated one-way turnover is 3.82% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$2,751m at the close on 2 September.
Increase in the FAF on a couple of stocks saves them from index deletion in September but is probably not enough to save them from index deletion in December.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: SenseTime (20 HK) Added As FAF Increases Dramatically

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> stock has been crushed following the lock-up expiry at the end of June with the stock now trading 40% below the IPO price.</li>
<li>The company has recently bought back stock providing some support. More importantly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> was included in Southbound Stock Connect on 29 July.</li>
<li>We expect a big increase in the free float adjustment factor (FAF) in the Hang Seng Indexes at the September rebalance that will provide some much needed passive inflows.</li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (20 HK) stock has been crushed following the lock-up expiry at the end of June with the stock now trading 40% below the IPO price.
The company has recently bought back stock providing some support. More importantly, SenseTime Group (20 HK) was included in Southbound Stock Connect on 29 July.
We expect a big increase in the free float adjustment factor (FAF) in the Hang Seng Indexes at the September rebalance that will provide some much needed passive inflows.


SenseTime (20 HK): Lock-Up Expiry Done; Stock Connect Done; Passive Inflows Next

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>There was a marked pickup in IPO activity with a number of smaller deals, along with two large deals being launched.</li>
<li>There were no major placements last week. In addition, Prosus single handedly took out two prospective large placements.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
There was a marked pickup in IPO activity with a number of smaller deals, along with two large deals being launched.
There were no major placements last week. In addition, Prosus single handedly took out two prospective large placements.


ECM Weekly (3rd Jul 2022) - Tianqi, Thai Life, Prosus/Naspers, Tencent, SEA, Soosan, SoCar, Carsales

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vision Fund's public portfolio lost $10bn in Q1 marking the third time in four quarters that valuation losses were in the tens of billions</li>
<li>Global tech weaness remains the main challenge as portfolio losses are matched with concerns on the private portfolio, especially ARM</li>
<li>And worries about ARM also feed into leverage concerns as Softbank's QoQ decline in reported LTV was driven by an ARM upgrade.  Meanwhile, CDS prices are near all-time highs</li>
</ul>


Vision Fund's public portfolio lost $10bn in Q1 marking the third time in four quarters that valuation losses were in the tens of billions
Global tech weaness remains the main challenge as portfolio losses are matched with concerns on the private portfolio, especially ARM
And worries about ARM also feed into leverage concerns as Softbank's QoQ decline in reported LTV was driven by an ARM upgrade.  Meanwhile, CDS prices are near all-time highs


Softbank Group - First Look at Q1 22 Performance

<ul>
<li>Just as the December quarter was flattered by the last minute IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a>, expiration of the lockup six months later has delivered a corresonding valuation hit</li>
<li>Vision Fund is still up on that investment but the public portfolio is flirting with a $10bn loss for the quarter depending on how US shares trade later</li>
<li>The discount has improved modestly to 49% from 51% but remains at the high end of the recent range as worries on tech valuations cast a long shadow </li>
</ul>


Just as the December quarter was flattered by the last minute IPO of SenseTime Group (20 HK), expiration of the lockup six months later has delivered a corresonding valuation hit
Vision Fund is still up on that investment but the public portfolio is flirting with a $10bn loss for the quarter depending on how US shares trade later
The discount has improved modestly to 49% from 51% but remains at the high end of the recent range as worries on tech valuations cast a long shadow 


Softbank Group - Expiration of SenseTime Lock-Up Has Lopped $1.5bn off the VF Valuation

China

SenseTime Group Inc. offers information technology services. The Company develops artificial intelligence software products, computer vision software products, and other products. SenseTime Group provides its services throughout China.

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SenseTime Group (20 HK)

HSCEI Index Rebalance: SenseTime (20 HK) Added As FAF Increases Dramatically

SenseTime's FAF increases from 3% to 40% & the stock will replace CPIC in the HSCEI. Passive trackers will need to buy 7 days of ADV on SenseTime...

Brian Freitas

SenseTime (20 HK): Lock-Up Expiry Done; Stock Connect Done; Passive Inflows Next

SenseTime is -40% from its IPO price following lock-up expiry. The company has bought back some stock and is now in Stock Connect. FAF increase in...

Brian Freitas

ECM Weekly (3rd Jul 2022) - Tianqi, Thai Life, Prosus/Naspers, Tencent, SEA, Soosan, SoCar, Carsales

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Softbank Group - First Look at Q1 22 Performance

Public valuation losses again exceeded $10bn as a last day meltdown for SenseTime marred an otherwise stable quarter for China. Global tech,...

Kirk Boodry

Softbank Group - Expiration of SenseTime Lock-Up Has Lopped $1.5bn off the VF Valuation

SenseTime's lock-up collapse has cost Vision Fund $1.5bn on the last trading day of the quarter, mirroring IPO gains when it listed six months prior

Kirk Boodry

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