Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Just as the December quarter was flattered by the last minute IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a>, expiration of the lockup six months later has delivered a corresonding valuation hit</li>
<li>Vision Fund is still up on that investment but the public portfolio is flirting with a $10bn loss for the quarter depending on how US shares trade later</li>
<li>The discount has improved modestly to 49% from 51% but remains at the high end of the recent range as worries on tech valuations cast a long shadow </li>
</ul>


Just as the December quarter was flattered by the last minute IPO of SenseTime Group (20 HK), expiration of the lockup six months later has delivered a corresonding valuation hit
Vision Fund is still up on that investment but the public portfolio is flirting with a $10bn loss for the quarter depending on how US shares trade later
The discount has improved modestly to 49% from 51% but remains at the high end of the recent range as worries on tech valuations cast a long shadow 


Softbank Group - Expiration of SenseTime Lock-Up Has Lopped $1.5bn off the VF Valuation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We do not expect any inclusions or exclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Float and capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 6.5% and that will result in a one-way trade of HK$4,913m.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> will have the largest buying flow due a potential increase in free float. The stock is also a potential inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> in September.</li>
</ul>


We do not expect any inclusions or exclusions for the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the September rebalance.
Float and capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 6.5% and that will result in a one-way trade of HK$4,913m.

SenseTime Group (20 HK) will have the largest buying flow due a potential increase in free float. The stock is also a potential inclusion to the HSCEI INDEX in September.


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Free Float & Capping Changes To Drive Flows

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>A few IPOs are lined up in Thailand and South Korea, in addition a number of deals are gearing up for launch.</li>
<li>There were no major placements last week. Although there are a few large lockup releases soon.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
A few IPOs are lined up in Thailand and South Korea, in addition a number of deals are gearing up for launch.
There were no major placements last week. Although there are a few large lockup releases soon.


ECM Weekly (26th June 2022) - Tianqi, Thai Life, Thai Bev, ClouDr, ACommerce, SenseTime, SonaComstar

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>There is a risk that the ¥7,000/share bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> gets pulled/lowered in Round 2 because of due diligence, conditionality, market environment, etc.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hutchison-telecommunications-hong-kong-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:141:1" rel="noopener">Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings (215 HK)</a>'s share price was up 33% month to date, on triple the average daily volume. Then promptly sheds 23% on an even larger volume. </li>
<li>Even if one assumes that Softbank, Baba, and Cornerstones won’t sell, there is still 45% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> of shares out, worth US$11bn, unlocking next week.</li>
</ul>


There is a risk that the ¥7,000/share bid for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) gets pulled/lowered in Round 2 because of due diligence, conditionality, market environment, etc.

Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings (215 HK)'s share price was up 33% month to date, on triple the average daily volume. Then promptly sheds 23% on an even larger volume. 
Even if one assumes that Softbank, Baba, and Cornerstones won’t sell, there is still 45% of SenseTime Group (20 HK) of shares out, worth US$11bn, unlocking next week.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hutch Tel, SenseTime, Giordano, DTAC/True, Toyo Const., ResApp

<ul>
<li>SenseTime Group (STG) raised US$741m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. The IPO barely made it through and was priced at the bottom of its IPO price range.</li>
<li>STG is a leading AI software company. STG was the largest AI software company in Asia in terms of 2020 revenue, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>


SenseTime Group (STG) raised US$741m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. The IPO barely made it through and was priced at the bottom of its IPO price range.
STG is a leading AI software company. STG was the largest AI software company in Asia in terms of 2020 revenue, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


SenseTime Lock-Up -Investment Blacklist Will Further Pressurize the Upcoming US$18bn Lock-Up Release

China

SenseTime Group Inc. offers information technology services. The Company develops artificial intelligence software products, computer vision software products, and other products. SenseTime Group provides its services throughout China.

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SenseTime Group (20 HK)

Softbank Group - Expiration of SenseTime Lock-Up Has Lopped $1.5bn off the VF Valuation

SenseTime's lock-up collapse has cost Vision Fund $1.5bn on the last trading day of the quarter, mirroring IPO gains when it listed six months prior

Kirk Boodry

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Free Float & Capping Changes To Drive Flows

No adds/deletes likely in September but float and capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 6.5% and that will result in a one-way trade...

Brian Freitas

ECM Weekly (26th June 2022) - Tianqi, Thai Life, Thai Bev, ClouDr, ACommerce, SenseTime, SonaComstar

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hutch Tel, SenseTime, Giordano, DTAC/True, Toyo Const., ResApp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

SenseTime Lock-Up -Investment Blacklist Will Further Pressurize the Upcoming US$18bn Lock-Up Release

SenseTime Group (STG) raised US$741m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. The lockup on the pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will expire later this month.

Sumeet Singh

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