Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation is target price of 16,182 won per share, which is 10% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. </li>
<li>We estimate BioNote to generate sales of 535.2 billion won (down 14% YoY) in 2022 and 349 billion won (down 34.8% YoY) in 2023. </li>
<li>Given the downside risk relative to the IPO price range, we have a Negative View of the BioNote IPO. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation is target price of 16,182 won per share, which is 10% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. 
We estimate BioNote to generate sales of 535.2 billion won (down 14% YoY) in 2022 and 349 billion won (down 34.8% YoY) in 2023. 
Given the downside risk relative to the IPO price range, we have a Negative View of the BioNote IPO. 


Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In July 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sd-biosensor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33333:1" rel="noopener">SD Biosensor (137310 KS)</a> in partnership with SJL Partners signed a definitive merger agreement to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meridian-bioscience-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1559:1" rel="noopener">Meridian Bioscience (VIVO US)</a>  for approximately KRW800 billion (~$1.5 billion).</li>
<li>The acquisition will strengthen SD Biosensos’s IVD platform to navigate the decline in COVID-19 testing demand and accelerate its U.S. market entry.</li>
<li>In September 2021, SD Biosensor acquired ~22% stake in UXN, which aims to launch mini continuous blood glucose meter in domestic market in 2024.</li>
</ul>


In July 2022, SD Biosensor (137310 KS) in partnership with SJL Partners signed a definitive merger agreement to acquire Meridian Bioscience (VIVO US)  for approximately KRW800 billion (~$1.5 billion).
The acquisition will strengthen SD Biosensos’s IVD platform to navigate the decline in COVID-19 testing demand and accelerate its U.S. market entry.
In September 2021, SD Biosensor acquired ~22% stake in UXN, which aims to launch mini continuous blood glucose meter in domestic market in 2024.


SD Biosensor (137310 KS): Aggressively Investing Windfall Gain From COVID; Adding New Growth Engines

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seegene-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11483:1" rel="noopener">Seegene Inc (096530 KS)</a> reported a 30% y/y growth in revenue from non-COVID products to KRW69.5 billion in H1 2022. Q2 non-COVID product revenue was up 21% compared to Q1.</li>
<li>The company expects strong demand for respiratory virus testing in fall and winter as the flu season starts in its key markets of Europe and North America.</li>
<li>Seegene stock is trading near its lows, mainly due to muted financial performance. Seegene can be a value pick and long-term play on the non-COVID product recovery.  </li>
</ul>



Seegene Inc (096530 KS) reported a 30% y/y growth in revenue from non-COVID products to KRW69.5 billion in H1 2022. Q2 non-COVID product revenue was up 21% compared to Q1.
The company expects strong demand for respiratory virus testing in fall and winter as the flu season starts in its key markets of Europe and North America.
Seegene stock is trading near its lows, mainly due to muted financial performance. Seegene can be a value pick and long-term play on the non-COVID product recovery.  


Seegene (096530 KS): Recovery of Non-COVID Sales to Drive Future Growth

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Juice for cash &amp; carry arbitrage doesn't seem like much. Several names in contango, but the basis widening isn't at a sufficiently arb-tradable level.</li>
<li>Reverse cash &amp; carry isn't all that attractive either, but it certainly does offer more juice, even with borrow fees. Ssangyong C&amp;E, SKT, Shinhan, and KB deserve our attention.</li>
<li>A bit uncertain is whether the pattern of "LONG Spot until ex-dividend and Conversion to Short" through cash &amp; carry will repeat itself this time.</li>
</ul>


Juice for cash &amp; carry arbitrage doesn't seem like much. Several names in contango, but the basis widening isn't at a sufficiently arb-tradable level.
Reverse cash &amp; carry isn't all that attractive either, but it certainly does offer more juice, even with borrow fees. Ssangyong C&amp;E, SKT, Shinhan, and KB deserve our attention.
A bit uncertain is whether the pattern of "LONG Spot until ex-dividend and Conversion to Short" through cash &amp; carry will repeat itself this time.


3Q Dividend Estimates of Those with SSF for Cash & Carry Arb in Korea

<ul>
<li>We can consider three types of dividend stocks, targeting the March 31 dividend base date: 1. 1Q fiscal year-ending dividends, 2. Interim (quarterly) dividends, 3. REITs regular dividends</li>
<li>The ex-dividend price corrections of fiscal year-ending dividend stocks have been pretty tight recently. In addition, the futures basis has not reached a desirable level either.</li>
<li>So, either outright dividend trading or dividend arb play does not have much trade opening. So, I'd consider setting up a long/short basket trading, by focusing on high DTV ones.</li>
</ul>


We can consider three types of dividend stocks, targeting the March 31 dividend base date: 1. 1Q fiscal year-ending dividends, 2. Interim (quarterly) dividends, 3. REITs regular dividends
The ex-dividend price corrections of fiscal year-ending dividend stocks have been pretty tight recently. In addition, the futures basis has not reached a desirable level either.
So, either outright dividend trading or dividend arb play does not have much trade opening. So, I'd consider setting up a long/short basket trading, by focusing on high DTV ones.


KOSPI/KOSDAQ End-March Dividends: 1Q Fiscal Year-Ending, Interim(Quarterly), & REITs

South Korea

Seegene, Inc. manufactures In Vitro Diagnostic (IVD) products mainly through molecular diagnostic method.  The Company provides diagnostic & screening products for cancer, sepsis, influenza and virus infection.

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Seegene Inc (096530 KS)

BioNote IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation is target price of 16,182 won per share, which is 10% lower than the low end of the IPO price range.

Douglas Kim

SD Biosensor (137310 KS): Aggressively Investing Windfall Gain From COVID; Adding New Growth Engines

SD Biosensor is pursuing inorganic route to add new business opportunities to navigate the decline in COVID-19 testing demand. Acquisition of...

Tina Banerjee

Seegene (096530 KS): Recovery of Non-COVID Sales to Drive Future Growth

Seegene is seeing slow recovery in non-COVID product revenue, with Q2 non-COVID product revenue increasing 21% q/q. At the current level Seegene...

Tina Banerjee

3Q Dividend Estimates of Those with SSF for Cash & Carry Arb in Korea

This post provides the market consensus estimates for the 3Q dividends of those with single-stock futures in Korea and looks into the cash-and...

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI/KOSDAQ End-March Dividends: 1Q Fiscal Year-Ending, Interim(Quarterly), & REITs

This post offers the latest update on the expected dividends and dividend yields of the three types of end-1Q dividend stocks.

Sanghyun Park

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