Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, Q3 results from the large medtech companies showed some encouraging signs including healthy procedure volume growth depicting recovery in the medtech sector globally.</li>
<li>Amidst fear of recession, most of these companies reported healthy system placement and no order cancellation. Diabetes, with a large underpenetrated addressable population, remains one of the most resilient segments.</li>
<li>Financial performances of APAC medtech companies are expected to be driven by healthy global procedure volume growth and Fx, partially offset by macroeconomic headwinds including inflation and supply constraints.</li>
</ul>


Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, Q3 results from the large medtech companies showed some encouraging signs including healthy procedure volume growth depicting recovery in the medtech sector globally.
Amidst fear of recession, most of these companies reported healthy system placement and no order cancellation. Diabetes, with a large underpenetrated addressable population, remains one of the most resilient segments.
Financial performances of APAC medtech companies are expected to be driven by healthy global procedure volume growth and Fx, partially offset by macroeconomic headwinds including inflation and supply constraints.


Global Medtech Trends: Readouts from Early Birds of Q3 Earnings Season- Positives and Negatives

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation is target price of 16,182 won per share, which is 10% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. </li>
<li>We estimate BioNote to generate sales of 535.2 billion won (down 14% YoY) in 2022 and 349 billion won (down 34.8% YoY) in 2023. </li>
<li>Given the downside risk relative to the IPO price range, we have a Negative View of the BioNote IPO. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation is target price of 16,182 won per share, which is 10% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. 
We estimate BioNote to generate sales of 535.2 billion won (down 14% YoY) in 2022 and 349 billion won (down 34.8% YoY) in 2023. 
Given the downside risk relative to the IPO price range, we have a Negative View of the BioNote IPO. 


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In July 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sd-biosensor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33333:1" rel="noopener">SD Biosensor (137310 KS)</a> in partnership with SJL Partners signed a definitive merger agreement to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meridian-bioscience-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1559:1" rel="noopener">Meridian Bioscience (VIVO US)</a>  for approximately KRW800 billion (~$1.5 billion).</li>
<li>The acquisition will strengthen SD Biosensos’s IVD platform to navigate the decline in COVID-19 testing demand and accelerate its U.S. market entry.</li>
<li>In September 2021, SD Biosensor acquired ~22% stake in UXN, which aims to launch mini continuous blood glucose meter in domestic market in 2024.</li>
</ul>


In July 2022, SD Biosensor (137310 KS) in partnership with SJL Partners signed a definitive merger agreement to acquire Meridian Bioscience (VIVO US)  for approximately KRW800 billion (~$1.5 billion).
The acquisition will strengthen SD Biosensos’s IVD platform to navigate the decline in COVID-19 testing demand and accelerate its U.S. market entry.
In September 2021, SD Biosensor acquired ~22% stake in UXN, which aims to launch mini continuous blood glucose meter in domestic market in 2024.


SD Biosensor (137310 KS): Aggressively Investing Windfall Gain From COVID; Adding New Growth Engines

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seegene-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11483:1" rel="noopener">Seegene Inc (096530 KS)</a> reported a 30% y/y growth in revenue from non-COVID products to KRW69.5 billion in H1 2022. Q2 non-COVID product revenue was up 21% compared to Q1.</li>
<li>The company expects strong demand for respiratory virus testing in fall and winter as the flu season starts in its key markets of Europe and North America.</li>
<li>Seegene stock is trading near its lows, mainly due to muted financial performance. Seegene can be a value pick and long-term play on the non-COVID product recovery.  </li>
</ul>



Seegene Inc (096530 KS) reported a 30% y/y growth in revenue from non-COVID products to KRW69.5 billion in H1 2022. Q2 non-COVID product revenue was up 21% compared to Q1.
The company expects strong demand for respiratory virus testing in fall and winter as the flu season starts in its key markets of Europe and North America.
Seegene stock is trading near its lows, mainly due to muted financial performance. Seegene can be a value pick and long-term play on the non-COVID product recovery.  


Seegene (096530 KS): Recovery of Non-COVID Sales to Drive Future Growth

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Juice for cash &amp; carry arbitrage doesn't seem like much. Several names in contango, but the basis widening isn't at a sufficiently arb-tradable level.</li>
<li>Reverse cash &amp; carry isn't all that attractive either, but it certainly does offer more juice, even with borrow fees. Ssangyong C&amp;E, SKT, Shinhan, and KB deserve our attention.</li>
<li>A bit uncertain is whether the pattern of "LONG Spot until ex-dividend and Conversion to Short" through cash &amp; carry will repeat itself this time.</li>
</ul>


Juice for cash &amp; carry arbitrage doesn't seem like much. Several names in contango, but the basis widening isn't at a sufficiently arb-tradable level.
Reverse cash &amp; carry isn't all that attractive either, but it certainly does offer more juice, even with borrow fees. Ssangyong C&amp;E, SKT, Shinhan, and KB deserve our attention.
A bit uncertain is whether the pattern of "LONG Spot until ex-dividend and Conversion to Short" through cash &amp; carry will repeat itself this time.


3Q Dividend Estimates of Those with SSF for Cash & Carry Arb in Korea

South Korea

BIONEER Corp. provides molecular biology products & services.  The Company's product includes oligo synthesis, nucleic acid amplication and purification kits, and instruments for detecting biowarfare agents.

Medy-Tox Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company.  The Company researches, develops and manufactures biopharmaceutical products using clostridium botulinum which is a microorganism toxin.

Green Cross Holdings Corporation is a holding company, which operates pharmaceutical, biotechnology, distribution system, life insurance, and healthcare entities.  The Company also invests in biotechnology venture capital and markets medical research information.

Green Cross Corporation manufactures household medical drugs. The Company's product includes medicines for cold and fever, nutrition, antiseptic drug, and a lip balm.

SillaJen, Inc. provides medical research and development services. The Company researches and develops treatment of cancer based on genetic recombination virus. SillaJen conducts its business in South Korea and the United States.

Eubiologics Co. Ltd. researches and develops biopharmaceuticals. The Company offers bacterial vaccines for new epidemics and antibiotic resistance. Eubiologics operates in South Korea.

Genexine Co., Ltd. is bio technology company. The Company specialize in the development of therapeutic vaccines and next generation antibody fusion protein medications.

Pharmicell Co.,Ltd. is a Biotechnology company.  The Company's business area inlcudes stem cell therapeutics, Stem cell banking, Bio-based business and Cosmetics.

Amicogen, Inc. develops, produces and markets specialty enzymes and functional food ingredients. The Company offers special biocatalysts,  enzyme-based new functional materials, health foods, and consumer products.

ISU ABXIS Co., Ltd. develops therapeutic antibodies for such as antithrombus, anti-inflammatory, anti-cancer, and rare diseases.  The Company also provides medical service such as anti-cancer drug sensitivity examination and gene examination.

Larimar Therapeutics, Inc. operates as a biotech company. The Company develops and discovers treatments for complex rare diseases such as protein replacement therapy. Larimar Therapeutics serves customers in the State of Pennsylvania.

Emergent BioSolutions, Inc. is a global specialty biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and delivers a portfolio of medical countermeasures for biological and chemical threats as well as emerging infectious diseases. Emergent also develops and commercializes therapeutics and other specialty products for hospitals and clinics.

Sage Therapeutics, Inc. develops treatments for central nervous system disorders. The Company provides treatments for schizophrenia, major depressive disorder, pain, and traumatic brain injury conditions. Sage Therapeutics operates in the United States.

TaiMed Biologics Inc. is a biotechnology company with focuses on the prevention and treatment of viral infectious diseases. The Company collaborates with other companies and government to conduct trials of AIDs treatment.

Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company.  The Company researches treatments for diabetes and obesity, cardiovascular disease, psychiatric and neurological disorders, cancer, immune system disorders, and ophthalmic disease.

GNI Group Ltd. develops therapeutic pharmaceutical products utilizing Genome analysis. The Company targets diseases indigenous to Asian countries. GNI controls the whole process of drug discovery by conducting clinical trials, research and development, and marketing.  The Company owns global subsidiaries in China and the US.

Avid Bioservices, Inc. operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on development and manufacturing of biopharmaceutical products derived from mammalian cell culture, as well as provides clinical and commercial manufacturing services. Avid Bioservices serves customers in the United States.

Travere Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on identifying, developing, and delivering therapies to people living with rare disease. Travere Therapeutics serves customers worldwide.

Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc. manufactures and markets biopharmaceutical products. The Company focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics to treat chronic liver diseases utilizing proprietary bile acid chemistry. Intercept Pharmaceuticals serves customers throughout the United States.

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on the discovery and development of immunosuppressive therapeutics.

Seegene, Inc. manufactures In Vitro Diagnostic (IVD) products mainly through molecular diagnostic method.  The Company provides diagnostic & screening products for cancer, sepsis, influenza and virus infection.

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Seegene Inc (096530 KS)

Global Medtech Trends: Readouts from Early Birds of Q3 Earnings Season- Positives and Negatives

Q3 results of large U.S. medtech companies recorded procedure volume growth. However, macroeconomic headwinds are expected to prevail. Similar...

Tina Banerjee

BioNote IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation is target price of 16,182 won per share, which is 10% lower than the low end of the IPO price range.

Douglas Kim

SD Biosensor (137310 KS): Aggressively Investing Windfall Gain From COVID; Adding New Growth Engines

SD Biosensor is pursuing inorganic route to add new business opportunities to navigate the decline in COVID-19 testing demand. Acquisition of...

Tina Banerjee

Seegene (096530 KS): Recovery of Non-COVID Sales to Drive Future Growth

Seegene is seeing slow recovery in non-COVID product revenue, with Q2 non-COVID product revenue increasing 21% q/q. At the current level Seegene...

Tina Banerjee

3Q Dividend Estimates of Those with SSF for Cash & Carry Arb in Korea

This post provides the market consensus estimates for the 3Q dividends of those with single-stock futures in Korea and looks into the cash-and...

Sanghyun Park

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