Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21713:1" rel="noopener">Siemens AG (SIE GR)</a> were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). Sony Corp (6758 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR) and Siemens AG (SIE GR) were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Global Fund Positioning Update:  Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuya-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32158:1" rel="noopener">Tuya Inc (1869782D US)</a> provides a backend service for IoT (internet of things) device makers. Tuya offers its customers a Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) for IoT devices that handles the connectivity, device software and application development. In 2020, Tuya was the largest IoT PaaS business globally as measured by the volume of smart devices powered, according to CIC.Tuya is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> (10.8% stake) and NEA (23.9% stake). Jeff Immelt, the former chairman and CEO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/general-electric-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:782:1" rel="noopener">General Electric Co (GE US)</a>, is a venture partner at NEA and has been appointed as a director at Tuya. Tuya has filed for an NYSE IPO to raise proceeds of $1 billion, according to press reports. Despite the growing user demand for smart IoT enabled devices driven by increased affordability and improved user experiences, most products are not connected yet. Devices related to smart home and smart business reached 762.8 million in 2019 and is expected to grow to 2.5 billion by 2024, representing a CAGR of 26.7%, according to CIC. This is a huge opportunity for companies that can offer their customers a cost-effective solution to bring their products online. <div class="content-highlight">PaaS is a key enabler to accelerate the launch of smart IoT enabled devices by making the software development cycles and feature update process time and cost-efficient. PaaS is a platform where third-party providers deliver software, infrastructure and hardware tools needed for software developers to build and manage software efficiently. Tuya’s PaaS solutions are well-positioned to benefit from the rising need for third-party IoT PaaS providers who can provide the required tools. Overall, we believe that Tuya’s fundamentals are attractive.</div>

Tuya Inc (1869782D US) provides a backend service for IoT (internet of things) device makers. Tuya offers its customers a Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) for IoT devices that handles the connectivity, device software and application development. In 2020, Tuya was the largest IoT PaaS business globally as measured by the volume of smart devices powered, according to CIC.Tuya is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK) (10.8% stake) and NEA (23.9% stake). Jeff Immelt, the former chairman and CEO of General Electric Co (GE US), is a venture partner at NEA and has been appointed as a director at Tuya. Tuya has filed for an NYSE IPO to raise proceeds of $1 billion, according to press reports. Despite the growing user demand for smart IoT enabled devices driven by increased affordability and improved user experiences, most products are not connected yet. Devices related to smart home and smart business reached 762.8 million in 2019 and is expected to grow to 2.5 billion by 2024, representing a CAGR of 26.7%, according to CIC. This is a huge opportunity for companies that can offer their customers a cost-effective solution to bring their products online. PaaS is a key enabler to accelerate the launch of smart IoT enabled devices by making the software development cycles and feature update process time and cost-efficient. PaaS is a platform where third-party providers deliver software, infrastructure and hardware tools needed for software developers to build and manage software efficiently. Tuya’s PaaS solutions are well-positioned to benefit from the rising need for third-party IoT PaaS providers who can provide the required tools. Overall, we believe that Tuya’s fundamentals are attractive.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Global equities continue to trend higher following breakouts that have occurred during the past two weeks. Over this timeframe we have been recommending adding exposure to cyclical Sectors and, despite them getting near-term extended, we believe these upside moves are likely just getting going. Additionally, the US dollar is breaking below support and EM equities are breaking above resistance, only adding to our bullish outlook on global equities. We highlight actionable set-ups within the Consumer Discretionary, Global Real Estate and Utilities Sectors.

Global equities continue to trend higher following breakouts that have occurred during the past two weeks. Over this timeframe we have been recommending adding exposure to cyclical Sectors and, despite them getting near-term extended, we believe these upside moves are likely just getting going. Additionally, the US dollar is breaking below support and EM equities are breaking above resistance, only adding to our bullish outlook on global equities. We highlight actionable set-ups within the Consumer Discretionary, Global Real Estate and Utilities Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Still Bullish, But Extended Near-Term

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rib-software-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21701:1" rel="noopener">RIB Software AG (RIB GR)</a> is an application software company that develops and markets planning and control software solutions to the building and construction industry. On 13 February, its shares rose around 40% on the back of a voluntary public tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schneider-electric-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21555:1" rel="noopener">Schneider Electric Se (SU FP)</a>. Schneider Electric has offered €29.00 cash per share, which will not be deducted for dividends. <div class="content-highlight">In Germany, bidders face three big hurdles if they want to win control of listed companies - two-tier board system, high control threshold and far-reaching safeguards for minority shareholders. Overall, we believe that the offer is attractive and has a strong chance to meet the minimum acceptance threshold, but offers limited DPLTA arbitrage opportunity. </div>

RIB Software AG (RIB GR) is an application software company that develops and markets planning and control software solutions to the building and construction industry. On 13 February, its shares rose around 40% on the back of a voluntary public tender offer from Schneider Electric Se (SU FP). Schneider Electric has offered €29.00 cash per share, which will not be deducted for dividends. In Germany, bidders face three big hurdles if they want to win control of listed companies - two-tier board system, high control threshold and far-reaching safeguards for minority shareholders. Overall, we believe that the offer is attractive and has a strong chance to meet the minimum acceptance threshold, but offers limited DPLTA arbitrage opportunity. 

RIB Software Tender Offer from Schneider Electric

France

Schneider Electric SE manufactures power distribution and automation systems. The Company produces circuit breakers, remote installation management equipment, panelboards, programmable logic controllers, industrial control products, detectors, human-machine interfaces, and process controls.  Schneider's products are sold various brands.

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Schneider Electric Se (SU FP)

Global Fund Positioning Update: Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

A detailed look at investor positioning among 380 active Global strategies, covering the major themes in country, sector and stock exposure.

Steven Holden

Tuya IPO Initiation: Connected Future

Tencent-backed Tuya has filed for an NYSE IPO to raise proceeds of $1 billion, according to press reports. Overall, we believe that Tuya’s...

Arun George

Global Equity Strategy:

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Still Bullish, But Extended Near-Term

Global equities continue to trend higher following breakouts that have occurred during the past two weeks. Over this timeframe we have been...

Vermilion Research

RIB Software Tender Offer from Schneider Electric

RIB Software AG (RIB GR) is an application software company that develops and markets planning and control software solutions to the building and...

Arun George

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