Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The bank is seeing high growth in cash and deposits, with loans in decline, and the composition moving more toward government and corporate loans</li>
<li>ALM does not appear strong, and without any easy way to reduce operating costs, the bank is now seeing cost/income surge to 74%</li>
<li>Credit metrics on surface may appear fine, but the 47% QoQ rise in provision costs, suggests to us provisions were cut too much last year, and now there is normalization</li>
</ul>


The bank is seeing high growth in cash and deposits, with loans in decline, and the composition moving more toward government and corporate loans
ALM does not appear strong, and without any easy way to reduce operating costs, the bank is now seeing cost/income surge to 74%
Credit metrics on surface may appear fine, but the 47% QoQ rise in provision costs, suggests to us provisions were cut too much last year, and now there is normalization


Suruga Bank - Loans Down A Lot, Deposits Up Sharply, Cost/Income Up to 74%, Credit Costs +47% QoQ

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> takeout of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> was opportunistic - done at a price SBI Shinsei's Board considered not reasonable. Until it changed its mind.</li>
<li>I had thought appraisal rights a great trade. I also thought it a good trade to own the back end, but that involved one holder putting ¥55bn on the table. </li>
<li>Activist Murakami-san's S Grant Corporation has done that. It will own one share of 8 post-consolidation on Monday. They are now equal shareholders with the govt entities.  Wow.</li>
</ul>


The SBI Holdings (8473 JP) takeout of SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) was opportunistic - done at a price SBI Shinsei's Board considered not reasonable. Until it changed its mind.
I had thought appraisal rights a great trade. I also thought it a good trade to own the back end, but that involved one holder putting ¥55bn on the table. 
Activist Murakami-san's S Grant Corporation has done that. It will own one share of 8 post-consolidation on Monday. They are now equal shareholders with the govt entities.  Wow.


Murakami-San's Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI's Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a> raised around US$370m in its Japan IPO in Mar 2023. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire on 24th Sep 2023.</li>
<li>SBI Sumishin Net Bank is a Japanese digital bank set up as a 50-50 joint venture between Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Japan’s largest trust bank, and SBI Group.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) raised around US$370m in its Japan IPO in Mar 2023. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire on 24th Sep 2023.
SBI Sumishin Net Bank is a Japanese digital bank set up as a 50-50 joint venture between Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Japan’s largest trust bank, and SBI Group.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO Lock-Up - A US$1bn Lockup Release, Will Sell a Little at Some Point

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Past Peak Rates - Equities continue upward trajectory;  9/11 SPX sectors  up as Tech leads; Yields down post weaker than expected ADP Employment; More China Measures for Economy </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.3; MOF FY24 Budget ~30trillion, +10.7%YoY; BOJ Board Member: BOJ May normalize in 2024; Govt Extends Gasoline Subsidy Program</li>
<li>JAPAN X: Tokyo's Condo Prices Break Decades-Old Records, being fueled foreign buying spurred by weaker yen. Potential Boon for Tokyo Focused Developers-IF they can secure labor and keep GPM </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Past Peak Rates - Equities continue upward trajectory;  9/11 SPX sectors  up as Tech leads; Yields down post weaker than expected ADP Employment; More China Measures for Economy 
JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.3; MOF FY24 Budget ~30trillion, +10.7%YoY; BOJ Board Member: BOJ May normalize in 2024; Govt Extends Gasoline Subsidy Program
JAPAN X: Tokyo's Condo Prices Break Decades-Old Records, being fueled foreign buying spurred by weaker yen. Potential Boon for Tokyo Focused Developers-IF they can secure labor and keep GPM 


Ohayo Japan|"Past Peak Rate" View Spur Equity Bid; JAPAN X: Tokyo's Condo Prices Reach Record High

<ul>
<li>The SBI Holdings Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> was completed about four weeks ago, and in something of a surprise, only 3.7% of 26.98% minority holdings tendered.</li>
<li>The stock traded above terms every day during the Tender Offer Period. People accumulated in order to pursue their appraisal rights later. That is big. </li>
<li>This week, SBI Shinsei announced the schedule of dates relating to the squeezeout EGM. The record date was early. The reverse stock split announced is as expected, <em>possibly</em> game-able.</li>
</ul>


The SBI Holdings Tender Offer for SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) was completed about four weeks ago, and in something of a surprise, only 3.7% of 26.98% minority holdings tendered.
The stock traded above terms every day during the Tender Offer Period. People accumulated in order to pursue their appraisal rights later. That is big. 
This week, SBI Shinsei announced the schedule of dates relating to the squeezeout EGM. The record date was early. The reverse stock split announced is as expected, possibly game-able.


SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) Calls Its EGM and Appraisal Rights Seekers Prepare for Battle

Japan

SBI Holdings, Inc. manages venture capital fund which mainly invest in Internet related venture companies.  The Company also provides brokerage, investment banking, and financial services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

SBI Holdings (8473 JP)

Suruga Bank - Loans Down A Lot, Deposits Up Sharply, Cost/Income Up to 74%, Credit Costs +47% QoQ

Cash is up a lot but loans are down a lot with sharply higher deposits, not the best ALM. Cost/income ratio is now 74%, not easy to cut costs...

Daniel Tabbush

Murakami-San's Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI's Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout

SBI's takeover of SBI Shinsei Bank was opportunistic - too cheap, but the govt holding format held weakness. One could fight via appraisal rights...

Travis Lundy

SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO Lock-Up - A US$1bn Lockup Release, Will Sell a Little at Some Point

SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) raised around US$370m in its Japan IPO in Mar 2023. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire on 24th Sep 2023.

Sumeet Singh

Ohayo Japan|"Past Peak Rate" View Spur Equity Bid; JAPAN X: Tokyo's Condo Prices Reach Record High

Weaker ADP Employment drives Past Peak Rate Bid; NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.3; MOF FY24 Budget ~30trillion, +10.7%YoY; BOJ Board Member:...

Mark Chadwick

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) Calls Its EGM and Appraisal Rights Seekers Prepare for Battle

The Shinsei EGM is on 1 Sep. The vote SHOULD BE a foregone conclusion. It will be interesting to see the detailed results (which may take a few...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Suruga Bank - Loans Down A Lot, Deposits Up Sharply, Cost/Income Up to 74%, Credit Costs +47% QoQ

Cash is up a lot but loans are down a lot with sharply higher deposits, not the best ALM. Cost/income ratio is now 74%, not easy to cut costs...

Daniel Tabbush

Murakami-San's Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI's Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout

​SBI's takeover of SBI Shinsei Bank was opportunistic - too cheap, but the govt holding format held weakness. One could fight via appraisal rights...

Travis Lundy

SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO Lock-Up - A US$1bn Lockup Release, Will Sell a Little at Some Point

SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) raised around US$370m in its Japan IPO in Mar 2023. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire on 24th Sep 2023.

Sumeet Singh

Ohayo Japan|"Past Peak Rate" View Spur Equity Bid; JAPAN X: Tokyo's Condo Prices Reach Record High

Weaker ADP Employment drives Past Peak Rate Bid; NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.3; MOF FY24 Budget ~30trillion, +10.7%YoY; BOJ Board Member:...

Mark Chadwick

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) Calls Its EGM and Appraisal Rights Seekers Prepare for Battle

The Shinsei EGM is on 1 Sep. The vote SHOULD BE a foregone conclusion. It will be interesting to see the detailed results (which may take a few...

Travis Lundy

SBI's takeover of SBI Shinsei Bank was opportunistic - too cheap, but the govt holding format held weakness. One could fight via appraisal rights...