HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The rapid spread of monkeypox to different groups of people in different countries has alarmed scientists, governments and health officers, but monkeypox virus is relatively mild in severity and infectivity.</li>
<li>China will bear the pressure of imported cases. But due to China’s zero-covid policy and long-term emergency reserve of smallpox vaccine, there's no need to panic at the current stage.</li>
<li>There're investment opportunities, but it’s difficult for related companies to replicate the growth story of COVID-19 products. The market's reaction to monkeypox is overdone. Investors are recommended to be rational.  </li>
</ul>


The rapid spread of monkeypox to different groups of people in different countries has alarmed scientists, governments and health officers, but monkeypox virus is relatively mild in severity and infectivity.
China will bear the pressure of imported cases. But due to China’s zero-covid policy and long-term emergency reserve of smallpox vaccine, there's no need to panic at the current stage.
There're investment opportunities, but it’s difficult for related companies to replicate the growth story of COVID-19 products. The market's reaction to monkeypox is overdone. Investors are recommended to be rational.  


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With only one change expected in September using a 12 month minimum listing history, we expect the index committee to continue using a 6 month minimum listing history.</li>
<li>That will see the maximum of 5 changes that are permitted at a single rebalance resulting in a one-way turnover just shy of 5%.</li>
<li>Over the last few rebalances, the adds have outperformed the deletes post the end of the review period. That's expected given passive trackers need to buy/sell a lot of stock.</li>
</ul>


With only one change expected in September using a 12 month minimum listing history, we expect the index committee to continue using a 6 month minimum listing history.
That will see the maximum of 5 changes that are permitted at a single rebalance resulting in a one-way turnover just shy of 5%.
Over the last few rebalances, the adds have outperformed the deletes post the end of the review period. That's expected given passive trackers need to buy/sell a lot of stock.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Change Is the Only Constant

Post market close on 28 May, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a>. The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 June.Just as we forecast, the inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ninebot-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32180:1" rel="noopener">Ninebot Ltd (689009 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sansure-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32182:1" rel="noopener">Sansure Biotech Inc (688289 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc-cc0c90b7-e854-4ba3-929b-914be1bd0d89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32181:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verisilicon-microelectronics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32183:1" rel="noopener">VeriSilicon Microelectronics (688521 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32184:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Biotech Inc (688065 CH)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntar-environmental-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30342:1" rel="noopener">Suntar Environmental Techn-A (688101 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-qingyi-photomask-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30351:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Qingyi Photomask Ltd (688138 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/traffic-control-technology-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30309:1" rel="noopener">Traffic Control Technology Co (688015 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hillstone-networks-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30321:1" rel="noopener">Hillstone Networks Co Ltd (688030 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ningbo-solartron-technolog-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30380:1" rel="noopener">Ningbo Solartron Technolog-A (688299 CH)</a> have been deleted from the index.The changes imply that a 6 month minimum listing was used. Given the increase in number of stocks that are listed for more than 1 year, this could be last review where a 6 month minimum listing history is used.Inflows into the ETFs have continued and the impact on the inclusions and exclusions will be a few days of ADV with estimated one-way turnover at 5.3%.The inclusions have outperformed the deletions over the last couple of months and there has been an increase in excess volume over the last couple of weeks. We would use any sharp moves in the stock to pare down existing positions in the trade.

Post market close on 28 May, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX). The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 June.Just as we forecast, the inclusions are Ninebot Ltd (689009 CH), Sansure Biotech Inc (688289 CH), CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH), VeriSilicon Microelectronics (688521 CH) and Cathay Biotech Inc (688065 CH), while Suntar Environmental Techn-A (688101 CH), Shenzhen Qingyi Photomask Ltd (688138 CH), Traffic Control Technology Co (688015 CH), Hillstone Networks Co Ltd (688030 CH) and Ningbo Solartron Technolog-A (688299 CH) have been deleted from the index.The changes imply that a 6 month minimum listing was used. Given the increase in number of stocks that are listed for more than 1 year, this could be last review where a 6 month minimum listing history is used.Inflows into the ETFs have continued and the impact on the inclusions and exclusions will be a few days of ADV with estimated one-way turnover at 5.3%.The inclusions have outperformed the deletions over the last couple of months and there has been an increase in excess volume over the last couple of weeks. We would use any sharp moves in the stock to pare down existing positions in the trade.

STAR Board - STAR50 Index Rebalance: Inclusions Outperform Exclusions as Positioning Jumps

<div>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> is a free float market cap weighted and is made up of the 50 largest stocks based on full market cap that are listed on the STAR Market.</div><div>The review period for the June rebalance ends on 30 April, the results of the rebalance will be announced towards the end of May and will be implemented at the close of trading on 11 June.</div><div>
A maximum of 5 changes are permitted in a single review.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntar-environmental-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30342:1" rel="noopener">Suntar Environmental Techn-A (688101 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-qingyi-photomask-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30351:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Qingyi Photomask Ltd (688138 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/traffic-control-technology-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30309:1" rel="noopener">Traffic Control Technology Co (688015 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hillstone-networks-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30321:1" rel="noopener">Hillstone Networks Co Ltd (688030 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ningbo-solartron-technolog-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30380:1" rel="noopener">Ningbo Solartron Technolog-A (688299 CH)</a> are high probability deletions from the index at the June review.
There is a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ninebot-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32180:1" rel="noopener">Ninebot Ltd (689009 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sansure-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32182:1" rel="noopener">Sansure Biotech Inc (688289 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc-cc0c90b7-e854-4ba3-929b-914be1bd0d89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32181:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verisilicon-microelectronics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32183:1" rel="noopener">VeriSilicon Microelectronics (688521 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32184:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Biotech Inc (688065 CH)</a> being included in the index.
An alternate list of possible inclusions (with a lower probability) are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-huafeng-test-con-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30367:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Huafeng Test &amp; Con-A (688200 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-orient-gene-biotech-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30379:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech-A (688298 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bio-thera-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29127:1" rel="noopener">Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd (688177 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-raycloud-technolo-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30391:1" rel="noopener">Hangzhou Raycloud Technolo-A (688365 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitgen-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30371:1" rel="noopener">HitGen Inc (688222 CH)</a>.
The expected inclusions and exclusions have been performing poorly over the last couple of months. The price falls have been accompanied by shrinking volume and the passive flow could have a larger impact on the stocks than what we had estimated earlier.
We recommend buying the expected inclusions and selling a highly correlated hedge basket to take advantage of the expected passive flows into the stocks.

</div>

The SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX) is a free float market cap weighted and is made up of the 50 largest stocks based on full market cap that are listed on the STAR Market.The review period for the June rebalance ends on 30 April, the results of the rebalance will be announced towards the end of May and will be implemented at the close of trading on 11 June.
A maximum of 5 changes are permitted in a single review.
Suntar Environmental Techn-A (688101 CH), Shenzhen Qingyi Photomask Ltd (688138 CH), Traffic Control Technology Co (688015 CH), Hillstone Networks Co Ltd (688030 CH) and Ningbo Solartron Technolog-A (688299 CH) are high probability deletions from the index at the June review.
There is a high probability of Ninebot Ltd (689009 CH), Sansure Biotech Inc (688289 CH), CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH), VeriSilicon Microelectronics (688521 CH) and Cathay Biotech Inc (688065 CH) being included in the index.
An alternate list of possible inclusions (with a lower probability) are Beijing Huafeng Test &amp; Con-A (688200 CH), Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech-A (688298 CH), Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd (688177 CH), Hangzhou Raycloud Technolo-A (688365 CH) and HitGen Inc (688222 CH).
The expected inclusions and exclusions have been performing poorly over the last couple of months. The price falls have been accompanied by shrinking volume and the passive flow could have a larger impact on the stocks than what we had estimated earlier.
We recommend buying the expected inclusions and selling a highly correlated hedge basket to take advantage of the expected passive flows into the stocks.



STAR Board - STAR50 Index Rebalance June Preview: Falling Volumes Increasing Impact

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> is a free float market cap weighted and is made up of the 50 largest stocks based on full market cap that are listed on the STAR Market.The review period for the June rebalance ends on 30 April, the results of the rebalance will be announced towards the end of May and will be implemented at the close of trading on 11 June.A maximum of 5 changes are permitted in a single review.At the June review, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntar-environmental-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30342:1" rel="noopener">Suntar Environmental Techn-A (688101 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-qingyi-photomask-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30351:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Qingyi Photomask Ltd (688138 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/traffic-control-technology-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30309:1" rel="noopener">Traffic Control Technology Co (688015 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hillstone-networks-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30321:1" rel="noopener">Hillstone Networks Co Ltd (688030 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ningbo-solartron-technolog-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30380:1" rel="noopener">Ningbo Solartron Technolog-A (688299 CH)</a> being deleted from the index.With index rules that are not specific, there are two sets of possible inclusions depending on the minimum listing history for the stocks.The likelier inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ninebot-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32180:1" rel="noopener">Ninebot Ltd (689009 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc-cc0c90b7-e854-4ba3-929b-914be1bd0d89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32181:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sansure-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32182:1" rel="noopener">Sansure Biotech Inc (688289 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verisilicon-microelectronics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32183:1" rel="noopener">VeriSilicon Microelectronics (688521 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32184:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Biotech Inc (688065 CH)</a>.The less likely inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-huafeng-test-con-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30367:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Huafeng Test &amp; Con-A (688200 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-orient-gene-biote-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30379:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Orient Gene Biote-A (688298 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bio-thera-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29127:1" rel="noopener">Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd (688177 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-raycloud-technolo-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30391:1" rel="noopener">Hangzhou Raycloud Technolo-A (688365 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitgen-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30371:1" rel="noopener">HitGen Inc (688222 CH)</a>.The recent selloff in growth stocks has led to the potential inclusions underperforming the potential deletions. A turn in momentum stocks could lead to the potential inclusions outperforming.

The SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX) is a free float market cap weighted and is made up of the 50 largest stocks based on full market cap that are listed on the STAR Market.The review period for the June rebalance ends on 30 April, the results of the rebalance will be announced towards the end of May and will be implemented at the close of trading on 11 June.A maximum of 5 changes are permitted in a single review.At the June review, we see Suntar Environmental Techn-A (688101 CH), Shenzhen Qingyi Photomask Ltd (688138 CH), Traffic Control Technology Co (688015 CH), Hillstone Networks Co Ltd (688030 CH) and Ningbo Solartron Technolog-A (688299 CH) being deleted from the index.With index rules that are not specific, there are two sets of possible inclusions depending on the minimum listing history for the stocks.The likelier inclusions are Ninebot Ltd (689009 CH), CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH), Sansure Biotech Inc (688289 CH), VeriSilicon Microelectronics (688521 CH) and Cathay Biotech Inc (688065 CH).The less likely inclusions are Beijing Huafeng Test &amp; Con-A (688200 CH), Zhejiang Orient Gene Biote-A (688298 CH), Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd (688177 CH), Hangzhou Raycloud Technolo-A (688365 CH) and HitGen Inc (688222 CH).The recent selloff in growth stocks has led to the potential inclusions underperforming the potential deletions. A turn in momentum stocks could lead to the potential inclusions outperforming.

STAR50 Index Rebalance June Preview: Selloff Presents Opportunity

China

Sansure Biotech Inc. operates as an in vitro diagnostic solution provider. The Company develops and sells upstream nucleic acid extraction kits, novel coronavirus nucleic acid detection kits, and other products. Sansure Biotech markets its products worldwide.

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Sansure Biotech (688289 CH)

Monkeypox and Its Impact on China

Monkeypox's rapid spread raises concerns. China bears the pressure of imported cases, but it’s difficult to replicate the growth story of COVID-19...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Change Is the Only Constant

We expect the index committee to continue using a 6 month minimum listing history and that will lead to 5 changes in September. Buying the adds and...

Brian Freitas

STAR Board - STAR50 Index Rebalance: Inclusions Outperform Exclusions as Positioning Jumps

There are 5 changes to the STAR50 Index at the June review. The inclusions have outperformed the deletions and positioning has jumped sharply in...

Brian Freitas

STAR Board - STAR50 Index Rebalance June Preview: Falling Volumes Increasing Impact

We see 5 changes to the STAR50 Index at the June review. The deletions are high probability, but there is uncertainty on the inclusions due to a...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance June Preview: Selloff Presents Opportunity

While the deletions at the STAR50 June review can be picked fairly easily, index rules that are not specific give rise to two sets of potential...

Brian Freitas

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