Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.</li>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a> and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.</li>
</ul>


The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.
The changes for the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.
Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

Shanghai Friendess Electronic / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Money continues to flow into mainland China ETFs taking the total inflows since 18 July to over US$25bn. This has likely helped stabilise the market and prevent a bigger fall.</li>
<li>The inflows continue to be largest on ETFs tracking headline indices - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, CSI1000, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext</a>. Plus there are inflows on some sectoral and thematic ETFs.</li>
<li>The skew between stocks gaining 20%+ over the period vs those dropping -20% or more has improved significantly over the last week.</li>
</ul>


Money continues to flow into mainland China ETFs taking the total inflows since 18 July to over US$25bn. This has likely helped stabilise the market and prevent a bigger fall.
The inflows continue to be largest on ETFs tracking headline indices - CSI 300, STAR50, CSI1000, CSI 500, SSE50, ChiNext. Plus there are inflows on some sectoral and thematic ETFs.
The skew between stocks gaining 20%+ over the period vs those dropping -20% or more has improved significantly over the last week.


China ETFs: Inflows Continue to Support the Market

<ul>
<li>Nearly US$20bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs since 18 July and could be driven by the National Team supporting the market.</li>
<li>Most of the inflows have been focused on large cap indices including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext</a> and other sectoral and thematic ETFs.</li>
<li>The largest impact has been on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> constituents, but that has not stopped the slide in the stocks.</li>
</ul>


Nearly US$20bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs since 18 July and could be driven by the National Team supporting the market.
Most of the inflows have been focused on large cap indices including CSI 300, STAR50, CSI 500, SSE50, ChiNext and other sectoral and thematic ETFs.
The largest impact has been on the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) constituents, but that has not stopped the slide in the stocks.


China: Huge ETF Inflows & Impact on Stocks

<ul>
<li>There are 12 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> and 50 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index (SH000905 INDEX)</a> in June. Most changes were expected.</li>
<li>There are a lot of stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade. The round-trip trade in June is estimated to be US$5bn.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes for both indices but the return profile of a long adds/ short deletes trade for the CSI500 Index is a lot smoother.</li>
</ul>


There are 12 changes for the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) and 50 changes for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index (SH000905 INDEX) in June. Most changes were expected.
There are a lot of stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade. The round-trip trade in June is estimated to be US$5bn.
The adds have outperformed the deletes for both indices but the return profile of a long adds/ short deletes trade for the CSI500 Index is a lot smoother.


CSI300/CSI500 Index Rebalance: Big Flows and US$5bn Round-Trip Trade

China Merchants Expressway Net / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance is complete and we expect 11 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 1.4% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.82bn (US$1.22bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The potential deletes have bounced off their lows as the market has recovered. But the potential passive selling could see them underperform over the next month.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance is complete and we expect 11 changes to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX). 
We estimate one-way turnover of 1.4% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.82bn (US$1.22bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential deletes have bounced off their lows as the market has recovered. But the potential passive selling could see them underperform over the next month.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Bounce in the Potential Deletes Could Be Short Lived

China

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Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

China ETFs: Inflows Continue to Support the Market

Money continues to flow into mainland China ETFs with the total inflows since 18 July over US$25bn. This has likely helped stabilise the market and...

Brian Freitas

China: Huge ETF Inflows & Impact on Stocks

Nearly US$20bn has flowed into mainland China ETFs and could be driven by National Team supporting the market. There are many stocks where the ETFs...

Brian Freitas

CSI300/CSI500 Index Rebalance: Big Flows and US$5bn Round-Trip Trade

The CSI300/CSI500 indices rebalance at the close tomorrow. Since announcement, the inclusions to the CSI300 index have outperformed the deletes by...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Bounce in the Potential Deletes Could Be Short Lived

There could be 11 changes for the CSI300 in June with multiple days of ADV to trade on most names. The potential deletes have bounced recently but...

Brian Freitas

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