Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Chip revenues have been up for two months in a row.  Could this be the start of a trend?</li>
<li>Commodity prices indicate that the "Collapse" phase of a price downturn has ended, and that prices will now follow costs</li>
<li>DRAM and NAND makers should remain unprofitable until mid 2024, although their revenues can begin to steadily rise.  Other chip makers will do better.</li>
</ul>


Chip revenues have been up for two months in a row.  Could this be the start of a trend?
Commodity prices indicate that the "Collapse" phase of a price downturn has ended, and that prices will now follow costs
DRAM and NAND makers should remain unprofitable until mid 2024, although their revenues can begin to steadily rise.  Other chip makers will do better.


President, Vision Research

Robert C Prather Jr

President

Vision Research

Vision Research was formed in 2004 with the vision of generating the best possible fundamental analysis and investment research for smid cap US equities. In 2008, we broadened our coverage to include mid/large cap US stocks.  After researching a  few ideas outside the US each year for a number of years, we launched a dedicated non-US equity product at the end of 2015.  This was followed by the introduction of a product focused on IPOs in mid-2017.

Fundamental Insight

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Large portion of the business is in secular decline and facing pricing pressure</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)</a> appears to be losing share in a shrinking market</li>
<li>Estimates are above overly optimistic guidance making shares look optically inexpensive</li>
</ul>


Large portion of the business is in secular decline and facing pricing pressure

Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP) appears to be losing share in a shrinking market
Estimates are above overly optimistic guidance making shares look optically inexpensive


Ricoh (7752 JP) - Long Term Structural Decliner with a Recent Boost in Inorganic Rev & Profits

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-enerbility-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7389:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS)</a> aims to raise around US$220m via selling around 4.9% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-bobcat-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23592:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS)</a> .</li>
<li>This will be the third selldown in the company in less than a year with the previous two deals in Nov 22 and May 23 having delivered mixed results</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS) aims to raise around US$220m via selling around 4.9% of Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS) .
This will be the third selldown in the company in less than a year with the previous two deals in Nov 22 and May 23 having delivered mixed results
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.


Doosan Bobcat Placement - Past Deals Have Been Mixed but the Stock Has Been Doing Well

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>More Nvidia Takeaways from two conferences the company spoke at -- The company highlighted support for Intel's new Foundry business, Mediatek, and why automakers will absolutely need AI to compete.</li>
<li>Memory Chip Stocks -- Nanya jumps 10% on hopes that AI servers will need 7x the value of DRAM. Micron warns that half of China revenue could be at risk.</li>
<li>Delta Taiwan and Thailand Surge 20%+, Taiwan outperforms. Delta Taiwan has acquired a German automotive components company to boost its EV powertrain products lead.</li>
</ul>


More Nvidia Takeaways from two conferences the company spoke at -- The company highlighted support for Intel's new Foundry business, Mediatek, and why automakers will absolutely need AI to compete.
Memory Chip Stocks -- Nanya jumps 10% on hopes that AI servers will need 7x the value of DRAM. Micron warns that half of China revenue could be at risk.
Delta Taiwan and Thailand Surge 20%+, Taiwan outperforms. Delta Taiwan has acquired a German automotive components company to boost its EV powertrain products lead.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Highlights Intel & Mediatek; AI Server DRAM Demand; Delta Price Surges

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

Encouraging Signs in Recent Semi Stats

The chip market is giving signs of a recovery which will see rising revenues but should remain unprofitable for commodity players until mid-2024. ...

Jim Handy

Ricoh (7752 JP) - Long Term Structural Decliner with a Recent Boost in Inorganic Rev & Profits

A large portion of Ricoh's business is losing market share in an industry that is facing secular declines. Estimates that above optimistic...

Robert C Prather Jr

Doosan Bobcat Placement - Past Deals Have Been Mixed but the Stock Has Been Doing Well

Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS) aims to raise around US$220m via selling around 4.9% of Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS) . This will be the third deal...

Sumeet Singh

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Highlights Intel & Mediatek; AI Server DRAM Demand; Delta Price Surges

More Nvidia Takeaways from two conferences the company spoke at -- The company highlighted support for Intel's new Foundry business, Mediatek, and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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