IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group / (CG US)</a> at JPY6,500 per share, a 20.4% premium to the last close. </li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 31.54% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>Due to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 48.6% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance condition is achievable as the offer is a knockout bid. </li>
</ul>



Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle Group / (CG US) at JPY6,500 per share, a 20.4% premium to the last close. 
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 31.54% ownership ratio.
Due to the Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 48.6% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance condition is achievable as the offer is a knockout bid. 


KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Finger Lickin' Tender Offer at JPY6,500

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei reports that Carlyle is in the final stages of buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a>’s 35% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a>, which will result in a tender offer. </li>
<li>The structure will likely be similar to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> tender, where MitCorp provides an irrevocable NOT to accept but vote for share consolidation.</li>
<li>The shares have been up 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.  </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Carlyle is in the final stages of buying Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s 35% stake in Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP), which will result in a tender offer. 
The structure will likely be similar to the KDDI Corp (9433 JP)/ Lawson Inc (2651 JP) tender, where MitCorp provides an irrevocable NOT to accept but vote for share consolidation.
The shares have been up 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.  


KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese are developing a growing love for frozen foods, creating new opportunities for food brands and retailers.  </li>
<li>Frozen foods were long overlooked within the supply chain because of a traditional emphasis on fresh foods but frozen </li>
<li>As supply has increased, consumer demand has grown to match and now, with the growth of e-commerce and home delivery, frozen foods offer key advantages to both consumers and retailers.</li>
</ul>


Japanese are developing a growing love for frozen foods, creating new opportunities for food brands and retailers.  
Frozen foods were long overlooked within the supply chain because of a traditional emphasis on fresh foods but frozen 
As supply has increased, consumer demand has grown to match and now, with the growth of e-commerce and home delivery, frozen foods offer key advantages to both consumers and retailers.


'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is cloud service provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakus-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29200:1" rel="noopener">Rakus (3923 JP)</a> and conglomerate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ichigo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11386:1" rel="noopener">Ichigo (2337 JP)</a> </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/315/original/2020-10-15_05-50-54.png?1602708663" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165315"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/316/original/2020-10-15_05-48-45.png?1602708676" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165316"></figure></section><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>58 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 41% Positive / 10% Neutral / 48% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.5 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -14.5% Quarter YoY / -8.6% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -3.9ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 33%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>33 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 45% Positive / 6% Neutral / 48% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 40% Positive / 20% Neutral / 40% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -4.0 point</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is cloud service provider Rakus (3923 JP) and conglomerate Ichigo (2337 JP) Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS58 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 41% Positive / 10% Neutral / 48% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.5 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -14.5% Quarter YoY / -8.6% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.9ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 33%
33 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 45% Positive / 6% Neutral / 48% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 40% Positive / 20% Neutral / 40% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -4.0 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​14 - ABC Mart, USEN-NEXT, Saizeriya, Ichigo, Rakus

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/170/original/2020-07-15_06-47-59.png?1594763291" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146170"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/171/original/2020-07-15_06-49-16.png?1594763379" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146171"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/izumi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13173:1" rel="noopener">Izumi (8273 JP)</a></strong>- General merchandise retailer Izumi saw an unchanged Results Score and slightly improved Forecast/Revision Score as their initial full-year forecast suggests a bottoming out of the margin deterioration of the last seven quarters. The market-implied growth rate is now negative, and with the Relative Price Score more than half that of the 2017 peak, the shares now offer good value if the margin recovery is to continue. </p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>74 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 23 Positive / 10 Neutral / 41 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.4</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -10.9% Quarter YoY / -2.1% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: </strong>-2.3ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses</strong>: 35%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>33 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 16 Positive / 4 Neutral / 13 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 3 Positive / 1 Neutral / 6 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -3.1</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
Izumi (8273 JP)- General merchandise retailer Izumi saw an unchanged Results Score and slightly improved Forecast/Revision Score as their initial full-year forecast suggests a bottoming out of the margin deterioration of the last seven quarters. The market-implied growth rate is now negative, and with the Relative Price Score more than half that of the 2017 peak, the shares now offer good value if the margin recovery is to continue. 
DAILY STATS
74 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 23 Positive / 10 Neutral / 41 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -10.9% Quarter YoY / -2.1% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.3ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 35%
 33 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 16 Positive / 4 Neutral / 13 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 3 Positive / 1 Neutral / 6 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.1


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 14th July - Uzumi, UUUM, Toho, Saizeriya, Create, Rakus

Japan

SAIZERIYA CO., LTD. operates an Italian restaurant chain based in the Tokyo metropolitan area.  The Company's menu includes pizza, pasta, seafood, and meat entrees.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Saizeriya (7581 JP)

KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Finger Lickin' Tender Offer at JPY6,500

Due to the MitCorp irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 48.6% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance condition is achievable...

Arun George

KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer

The shares have increased 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.

Arun George

Japan's New Food Boom: Frozen Food

Frozen food sales have boomed during the pandemic but the new enthusiasm for all things frozen is a long-term trend and some retailers and...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/14 - ABC Mart, USEN-NEXT, Saizeriya, Ichigo, Rakus

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is cloud service provider Rakus (3923 JP) and conglomerate Ichigo (2337 JP)

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 14th July - Uzumi, UUUM, Toho, Saizeriya, Create, Rakus

Izumi (8273 JP)- General merchandise retailer Izumi saw an unchanged Results Score and slightly improved Forecast/Revision Score as their initial...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Finger Lickin' Tender Offer at JPY6,500

Due to the MitCorp irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 48.6% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance condition is achievable...

Arun George

KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer

The shares have increased 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.

Arun George

Japan's New Food Boom: Frozen Food

Frozen food sales have boomed during the pandemic but the new enthusiasm for all things frozen is a long-term trend and some retailers and...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​14 - ABC Mart, USEN-NEXT, Saizeriya, Ichigo, Rakus

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is cloud service provider Rakus (3923 JP) and conglomerate Ichigo (2337 JP)

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 14th July - Uzumi, UUUM, Toho, Saizeriya, Create, Rakus

Izumi (8273 JP)- General merchandise retailer Izumi saw an unchanged Results Score and slightly improved Forecast/Revision Score as their initial...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/14 - ABC Mart, USEN-NEXT, Saizeriya, Ichigo, Rakus