Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Since the release of 3Q24 (YE August) results on July 10, the share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saizeriya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14362:1" rel="noopener">Saizeriya (7581 JP)</a> is up nearly 10%, greatly outperforming Nikkei during the same time frame. </li>
<li>The 3Q24 results showed that Japan's operating profit finally improved, while China remained solid.  </li>
<li>The company is currently trading at 24x 2025E PE with strong earnings growth.</li>
</ul>


Since the release of 3Q24 (YE August) results on July 10, the share price of Saizeriya (7581 JP) is up nearly 10%, greatly outperforming Nikkei during the same time frame. 
The 3Q24 results showed that Japan's operating profit finally improved, while China remained solid.  
The company is currently trading at 24x 2025E PE with strong earnings growth.


Saizeriya (7581 JP):  Improvement In Profitability In Japan Materialized in 3Q24

<ul>
<li>After a strong 68% increase in share price in 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saizeriya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14362:1" rel="noopener">Saizeriya (7581 JP)</a> has been trading range bound, and up 8% year-to-date in 2024. </li>
<li>Continued weakness in Japan on the profitability front in 1HFY24 offset continued strong performance in China.</li>
<li>Japan's operating profit is set to improve in the second half of the current fiscal year (ending August), and China's strength will continue on the back of accelerating store openings. </li>
</ul>


After a strong 68% increase in share price in 2023, Saizeriya (7581 JP) has been trading range bound, and up 8% year-to-date in 2024. 
Continued weakness in Japan on the profitability front in 1HFY24 offset continued strong performance in China.
Japan's operating profit is set to improve in the second half of the current fiscal year (ending August), and China's strength will continue on the back of accelerating store openings. 


Saizeriya (7581 JP):  Buy On Any Weakness On A More Profitable Japan And Continued Strength In China

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saizeriya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14362:1" rel="noopener">Saizeriya (7581 JP)</a> reported FY1Q24 results (September to November) last week.  Sales grew 22% yoy, and was 2% higher than company guidance.  Operating profit grew 104%.</li>
<li>Operating profit for the Asia business, the key growth driver of the company, was Y3.3bn, up 56% yoy and above management guidance. </li>
<li>Overall thesis remains intact, as the Asia business performed slightly better than expectations. </li>
</ul>



Saizeriya (7581 JP) reported FY1Q24 results (September to November) last week.  Sales grew 22% yoy, and was 2% higher than company guidance.  Operating profit grew 104%.
Operating profit for the Asia business, the key growth driver of the company, was Y3.3bn, up 56% yoy and above management guidance. 
Overall thesis remains intact, as the Asia business performed slightly better than expectations. 


Saizeriya (7581 JP):  Asia Business Slightly Beat While Japan Operating Profit Missed

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paint-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7387:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP)</a> is a branded decorative paint player.  China made up nearly 40% of the operating profit of the company. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saizeriya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14362:1" rel="noopener">Saizeriya (7581 JP)</a> is a Japanese restaurant chain of fast casual Italian food, with currently the majority of operating profit and growth coming from China.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> is a Japanese beauty company that relies heavily on China. </li>
</ul>



Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP) is a branded decorative paint player.  China made up nearly 40% of the operating profit of the company. 

Saizeriya (7581 JP) is a Japanese restaurant chain of fast casual Italian food, with currently the majority of operating profit and growth coming from China.

Shiseido Company (4911 JP) is a Japanese beauty company that relies heavily on China. 


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group / (CG US)</a> at JPY6,500 per share, a 20.4% premium to the last close. </li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 31.54% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>Due to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 48.6% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance condition is achievable as the offer is a knockout bid. </li>
</ul>



Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle Group / (CG US) at JPY6,500 per share, a 20.4% premium to the last close. 
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 31.54% ownership ratio.
Due to the Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 48.6% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance condition is achievable as the offer is a knockout bid. 


KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Finger Lickin' Tender Offer at JPY6,500

Japan

SAIZERIYA CO., LTD. operates an Italian restaurant chain based in the Tokyo metropolitan area.  The Company's menu includes pizza, pasta, seafood, and meat entrees.

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Saizeriya (7581 JP)