Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The EURO STOXX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume impact and they generally involve large cap names. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2022.</li>
</ul>


The EURO STOXX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume impact and they generally involve large cap names. 
In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2022.


Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone's Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Cyan Renewables has bumped its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mma-offshore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:594:1" rel="noopener">Mma Offshore (MRM AU)</a> offer to A$2.70 per share, a 3.8% premium to the previous A$2.60 offer.</li>
<li>The bump is derisory in the context of recent earnings upgrades. Since the binding proposal, MMA has upgraded its FY24 EBITDA and EBIT guidance by 9.8% and 15.5%, respectively.</li>
<li>The AFR reported that around 30% of the register opposed the previous offer. A cursory 3.8% bump is unlikely to sway most of these dissenters to change their views.</li>
</ul>


Cyan Renewables has bumped its Mma Offshore (MRM AU) offer to A$2.70 per share, a 3.8% premium to the previous A$2.60 offer.
The bump is derisory in the context of recent earnings upgrades. Since the binding proposal, MMA has upgraded its FY24 EBITDA and EBIT guidance by 9.8% and 15.5%, respectively.
The AFR reported that around 30% of the register opposed the previous offer. A cursory 3.8% bump is unlikely to sway most of these dissenters to change their views.


MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Disappointing Final Offer Poses a Vote Risk

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>The base date for rankings for the June 2024 index rebal event is 31st May 2024. In this insight, we take a look at the latest list of potential ADDs/DELs.</li>
<li>Currently, I see 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the SE600 index. There are more names just outside the border requiring small price changes to get involved in index changes.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
The base date for rankings for the June 2024 index rebal event is 31st May 2024. In this insight, we take a look at the latest list of potential ADDs/DELs.
Currently, I see 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the SE600 index. There are more names just outside the border requiring small price changes to get involved in index changes.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Continue to Outperform Potential DELs

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Currently, I see 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the SE600 index. There are more names just outside the border requiring small price changes to get involved in index changes. </li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the June 2024 index rebal event.
Currently, I see 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the SE600 index. There are more names just outside the border requiring small price changes to get involved in index changes. 


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 7 Changes Likely; Expected ADDs Could Outperform Expected DELs

<ul>
<li>The transaction completes on 28 February and the distribution in-specie of 49% new <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> shares will be credited to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a>'s shareholders on 1 March.   </li>
<li>While the potential index inclusions are likely to support new SMM shares, there is likely to be greater short-term downward pressure from the overhang created by the distribution in-specie. </li>
<li>New SMM trades at a premium P/NAV multiple of 1.81x vs peers. However, New SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion implies an undemanding EV/order book of 0.60x vs historical ranges.</li>
</ul>


The transaction completes on 28 February and the distribution in-specie of 49% new Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) shares will be credited to Keppel Corp (KEP SP)'s shareholders on 1 March.   
While the potential index inclusions are likely to support new SMM shares, there is likely to be greater short-term downward pressure from the overhang created by the distribution in-specie. 
New SMM trades at a premium P/NAV multiple of 1.81x vs peers. However, New SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion implies an undemanding EV/order book of 0.60x vs historical ranges.


Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value

Italy

Saipem S.p.A. offers construction and offshore and onshore drilling services. The Company installs sub-sea pipelines, installs fixed platforms, manages complete onshore construction projects, and drills for oil mainly in Italy, Algeria, Nigeria, and the Arabian peninsula.

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Saipem SpA (SPM IM)

Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone's Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades

There are 3 ADDs/DELs based on current data but these rankings could fluctuate. There might some interesting pair trades involving the highest...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Disappointing Final Offer Poses a Vote Risk

The bump is derisory in the context of recent earnings upgrades. It is unlikely that a cursory 3.8% bump will sway most of the NO vote to change...

Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Continue to Outperform Potential DELs

The Top 10 potential ADDs have strongly outperformed the Top 7 potential DELs in the last 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year periods. I expect this trend...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 7 Changes Likely; Expected ADDs Could Outperform Expected DELs

My latest estimate for one-way flow is US$95mn. The expected ADDs have strong positive momentum while the expected DELs have strong negative momentum.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone's Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades

There are 3 ADDs/DELs based on current data but these rankings could fluctuate. There might some interesting pair trades involving the highest...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Disappointing Final Offer Poses a Vote Risk

The bump is derisory in the context of recent earnings upgrades. It is unlikely that a cursory 3.8% bump will sway most of the NO vote to change...

Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Continue to Outperform Potential DELs

The Top 10 potential ADDs have strongly outperformed the Top 7 potential DELs in the last 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year periods. I expect this trend...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 7 Changes Likely; Expected ADDs Could Outperform Expected DELs

My latest estimate for one-way flow is US$95mn. The expected ADDs have strong positive momentum while the expected DELs have strong negative momentum.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value

In the short term, Keppel's distribution in-specie of new SMM shares creates an overhang. Longer-term new SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion...

Arun George